Our prediction: 10th
Expected finish: 7th–13th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (9/10)
Biggest question
Can Roberto De Zerbi turn an extraordinary level of investment into an equally dramatic improvement on the pitch?
Why we have Tottenham in 10th
There may not be a more fascinating team in the Premier League this season than Tottenham. Spurs finished 17th last season, narrowly avoiding relegation for the second consecutive campaign. Roberto De Zerbi arrived for the final seven matches and kept them up, but what has happened since then amounts to something much bigger than a normal summer rebuild. Tottenham have effectively decided to start again.
De Zerbi has been backed enormously. Sandro Tonali, Mateus Fernandes, Jan Paul van Hecke, Marcos Senesi, Andy Robertson and Martin Dúbravka all arrived earlier in the window. Tottenham have now added another major signing, completing a deal for Sávio from Manchester City today for £75m plus a possible £10m in add-ons. The Brazilian’s arrival takes their summer expenditure beyond £300m.
And they may not be finished. Spurs are pursuing further attacking reinforcements before the transfer deadline, with Omar Marmoush and Cody Gakpo among the players linked with moves to north London.
It is an astonishing transformation. The midfield in particular looks completely different. Tonali gives Tottenham aggression, technical quality and the ability to control matches from deep, while Fernandes provides energy and ball progression. At the back, Van Hecke already understands De Zerbi’s football from their time together at Brighton, Senesi provides another experienced Premier League option and Robertson brings leadership and enormous top-level experience.
So why are we predicting only tenth? Because spending £300m does not automatically create a £300m team. Tottenham are integrating a huge number of new players into a demanding tactical system while attempting to recover from two disastrous league seasons. De Zerbi himself has described this as a new project and said his first priorities are finding the team’s identity and improving their organisation both with and without the ball. That process may take time.
Key transfers
In: Sandro Tonali, Mateus Fernandes, Jan Paul van Hecke, Marcos Senesi, Andy Robertson, Martin Dúbravka, Sávio.
Out: Cristian Romero, Luka Vušković.
Tonali is the statement signing. Tottenham have spent around £100m on a midfielder who should immediately become one of the central figures in De Zerbi’s team. He possesses the technical ability to play through pressure but combines it with the intensity and physicality required for the Premier League.
Fernandes is another huge investment. Tottenham have effectively rebuilt the centre of the pitch around two players who are comfortable receiving the ball in difficult areas, exactly what De Zerbi requires from his midfield.
Van Hecke may prove equally important. De Zerbi knows him extremely well, and the Dutch defender understands the risks involved in playing the manager’s aggressive possession game.
The latest arrival, Sávio, adds a completely different dimension. He is direct, quick and capable of beating defenders individually, while De Zerbi has highlighted his energy and creativity.
There have been major departures as well. Cristian Romero has joined Atlético Madrid, meaning Tottenham have lost their captain and one of their most experienced defenders. Micky van de Ven has subsequently been named the new captain, with Pedro Porro, Ben Davies, James Maddison and Archie Gray forming the wider leadership group. This is not an attempt to tweak last season’s Tottenham. It is an attempt to replace them.
Strengths
On paper, Tottenham now possess considerably more quality throughout the squad. The midfield could become a particular strength. Tonali is capable of dictating matches, Fernandes can carry possession forward and Archie Gray gives De Zerbi another technically accomplished option. Once everyone is available, there should be enough variety for Spurs to dominate possession without becoming completely predictable.
The defence has been transformed too. Van Hecke and Senesi add proven Premier League quality, Robertson provides experience on the left and Van de Ven remains one of the quickest centre-backs in European football. De Zerbi’s presence is another reason for optimism. His football is demanding, but when it works it can make teams extremely difficult to press. Tottenham have specifically recruited players who fit his methods rather than simply collecting expensive individuals. Van Hecke is the clearest example, but Tonali and Fernandes also appear ideally suited to a manager who expects his players to remain brave in possession.
There is considerable attacking talent as well. Sávio adds another one-on-one threat, while Mohammed Kudus, Xavi Simons, Dejan Kulusevski and Wilson Odobert give Spurs a collection of technically gifted players who can operate in several positions. If De Zerbi gets all of that working together, tenth could ultimately look extremely conservative.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
The obvious problem is that almost everything is changing simultaneously. Tottenham have a relatively new manager, a rebuilt midfield, a substantially altered defence, a new captain and several new attacking players. However talented those individuals are, relationships have to develop.
The opening weekend demonstrated that brutally. Tottenham travelled to Brentford and were beaten 3-0, hardly the start expected after such enormous investment. It would be absurd to judge the entire project on one match, but it reinforced the point that this team is nowhere near the finished article yet.
There is also a significant injury problem. Kulusevski, Xavi Simons and Wilson Odobert are currently unavailable, while Mohammed Kudus has been recovering from a thigh injury. Van de Ven missed the opening fixture after suffering a problem during pre-season, and Pape Matar Sarr also picked up a hamstring issue immediately before the Brentford match.
For a team trying to establish a completely new identity, having so many attacking players unavailable makes the task considerably harder. There is also still uncertainty around the centre-forward position. Tottenham have spent enormous sums everywhere else, but the squad still lacks the completely convincing focal point that would tie the attack together. Their continued activity in the market suggests the club recognise that themselves.
Key player
Sandro Tonali
If De Zerbi’s Tottenham are going to work, the midfield has to work. That makes Tonali absolutely central to the project.
He has the ability to receive possession under pressure, move the ball quickly through midfield and play with the aggression De Zerbi demands when Tottenham lose possession. Just as importantly, he already understands the Premier League. Tottenham are introducing enough new variables without needing their most important midfielder to spend six months adapting to English football. The fee creates enormous expectations, but Tonali has the quality to justify them.
Player to watch
Sávio
The timing makes this an obvious choice. Tottenham have completed his signing today, and the £75m initial fee makes him one of the biggest transfers of the entire Premier League summer.
He gives Spurs something De Zerbi clearly wanted: a winger willing to receive the ball and immediately attack his opponent.
Sávio generally prefers operating from the right and cutting onto his stronger left foot. At his best he can stretch defensive structures, carry the ball over significant distances and create opportunities without requiring an elaborate passing move around him.
His numbers dipped during his second season at Manchester City, but he is still only 22. De Zerbi has an excellent history of improving technically gifted attacking players. If he can do the same with Sávio, Tottenham may eventually look back on this as one of the defining transfers of their rebuild.
What they still need
A centre-forward remains the obvious priority. Tottenham have transformed virtually every other part of the team, but adding a striker capable of reliably converting the chances De Zerbi’s football should create would make the squad look significantly more complete.
Their pursuit of Omar Marmoush therefore makes considerable sense, and further attacking business before the deadline would not be surprising.
Beyond that, Tottenham probably need time more than they need another enormous wave of signings. At some point the recruitment has to stop and De Zerbi has to turn these players into a functioning team. That may ultimately be the most important task of all.
Verdict
Tottenham are the biggest wildcard in our predicted Premier League table. We could make a perfectly credible argument for putting them seventh. We could also make one for putting them 13th.
The potential is enormous. Tonali, Fernandes, Van Hecke, Senesi, Robertson and now Sávio represent an extraordinary injection of quality, while De Zerbi finally has the opportunity to build a squad specifically designed for his football.
But Tottenham finished 17th last season. That cannot simply be erased because the club have spent more than £300m. The 3-0 opening defeat at Brentford was a reminder of how much work remains. The injury list is already substantial, several major players are still learning one another’s movements and De Zerbi is attempting to completely change the team’s identity.
We expect Tottenham to improve significantly as the season progresses. There may even be periods when they look like one of the best teams outside the title contenders. But we also expect inconsistency, particularly during the first half of the campaign. For that reason, we are resisting the temptation to move them dramatically upwards simply because of the money spent.
A top-half finish would represent a substantial improvement after two consecutive 17th-place finishes and provide De Zerbi with a foundation from which to build something much more ambitious.
Our prediction: 10th.