Our prediction: 14th
Expected finish: 10th–16th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆☆☆ (6/10)
Biggest question
Can Oliver Glasner bring stability to a club that has once again undergone major change?
Why we have Nottingham Forest in 14th
Nottingham Forest enter the new season in a very different position from the one they occupied 12 months ago.
Last season was turbulent. Forest reached the Europa League semi-finals but finished only 16th in the Premier League, and the constant managerial changes made it difficult for the team to establish any real consistency. This summer has brought another major change, with Oliver Glasner taking charge as head coach. He began work with the squad when pre-season started in July.
We think Glasner is a good appointment. His preferred 3-4-2-1 system should suit several of the players already at the club, particularly the attacking wing-backs and the collection of centre-backs Forest have assembled. His success with Crystal Palace also means there should be relatively little mystery about how he intends his team to play.
The bigger issue is what Forest have lost. Elliot Anderson’s move to Manchester City is enormous. Forest agreed to sell the England midfielder in July, with the deal reported at £116 million. He had developed into one of the most influential players in the side, capable of progressing the ball, winning possession and controlling games from midfield.
Forest have responded aggressively. Ousmane Diomande has arrived from Sporting for around £34 million, while Xaver Schlager joined on a free transfer after leaving RB Leipzig. Steven Benda has also been added to the goalkeeping department.
Diomande is particularly interesting. He already has experience operating in a back three, making him an obvious fit for Glasner’s system, while Schlager brings international experience, intensity and leadership to the midfield.
There is plenty of talent here. But after losing Anderson and changing manager again, we think Forest may need time before everything clicks.
Key transfers
In: Ousmane Diomande, Xaver Schlager, Steven Benda.
Out: Elliot Anderson, Taiwo Awoniyi, David Carmo, Stefan Ortega, Omar Richards.
Diomande is the headline addition and potentially an excellent one. At 22, he combines physical power with the mobility required to defend large spaces, and his experience in a three-man defence should allow him to adapt quickly to Glasner’s football.
Schlager could be equally important. He arrives without a transfer fee after playing for RB Leipzig and started all four of Austria’s matches at the World Cup. His aggression and willingness to press should translate extremely well to Glasner’s approach.
The problem is that neither directly replaces everything Anderson provided. Forest have effectively sold one of their best players for an enormous fee and redistributed some of that quality elsewhere in the squad. Whether that leaves the overall team stronger is still open to debate.
There could yet be more business. Forest are currently closing in on Liam Delap from Chelsea, while Glasner is also looking for another addition before the window shuts.
Strengths
Forest’s defensive options look very strong on paper. Diomande joins a group already containing Murillo, Nikola Milenković, Morato and Jair Cunha. That gives Glasner the personnel to use his preferred back three without having to force players into unfamiliar roles.
The wing-back positions should suit the system as well. Ola Aina and Neco Williams both possess the athleticism required to cover huge distances, and Glasner’s Palace teams demonstrated how influential attacking wing-backs can become within his structure.
Further forward, there is considerable variety. Morgan Gibbs-White remains the creative heartbeat of the side, while Callum Hudson-Odoi, Omari Hutchinson, Dan Ndoye, Igor Jesus, Arnaud Kalimuendo and Chris Wood give Glasner several different attacking combinations.
That depth should allow Forest to change the way they attack depending on the opposition rather than becoming dependent on one particular route to goal.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
The obvious concern is central midfield. You do not simply remove Elliot Anderson from a team without consequences. He had become capable of influencing virtually every phase of Forest’s game, and although Schlager brings many excellent qualities, asking one player to replace Anderson directly would be unrealistic.
There is also the wider issue of stability. Forest have changed managers repeatedly in recent seasons, and Glasner is inheriting another squad that has been reshaped. Even an excellent coach needs time to establish automatisms, particularly when implementing a system as structured as his 3-4-2-1.
The opening weekend provided an early reminder of that. Forest lost 1-0 at home to Leeds, conceding from an 88th-minute free-kick and struggling to create enough clear opportunities. Glasner himself stressed afterwards that transforming the team will take time.
Injuries have not helped either. Morgan Gibbs-White is currently dealing with a knee problem and will miss the Carabao Cup meeting with Leeds, although he is expected back for the Premier League game against Liverpool. That is particularly significant because Forest’s attacking creativity drops noticeably when Gibbs-White is unavailable.
Key player
Morgan Gibbs-White
With Anderson gone, Gibbs-White becomes even more important. He is the player most capable of connecting midfield with attack, receiving possession between the lines and turning an ordinary Forest attack into something dangerous.
Glasner’s system should theoretically suit him extremely well. Playing as one of the two attacking midfielders behind a central striker gives Gibbs-White freedom to operate in the spaces where he is most effective.
Keeping him fit – and keeping him at the club beyond the transfer deadline – would be one of Forest’s biggest victories of the summer.
Player to watch
Ousmane Diomande
This could be one of the Premier League’s most interesting defensive signings of the summer. Forest have paid around £34 million for a defender who appears almost purpose-built for Glasner’s system. He is quick enough to defend aggressively, strong enough to deal with the physical demands of English football and comfortable playing as part of a back three.
If Diomande adapts quickly, Forest could have one of the strongest collections of centre-backs outside the traditional European contenders.
What they still need
A striker is clearly high on the list, which explains the pursuit of Liam Delap. Chris Wood remains an extremely useful Premier League forward, but Forest cannot expect him to carry the attacking burden indefinitely. Igor Jesus and Kalimuendo provide alternatives, yet adding another genuine centre-forward would give Glasner far more flexibility.
Delap would be an intriguing addition despite a difficult season at Chelsea. At 23, he still possesses the physical profile and Premier League experience to become an important long-term player, and Forest are now reported to be close to securing him.
Another wing-back would also make sense, particularly given how physically demanding those positions are in Glasner’s system. There is still time to act, with the Premier League transfer window closing at 23:00 BST on 1 September.
Verdict
There is enough quality at Nottingham Forest for them to finish considerably higher than 14th. Glasner is a proven Premier League coach, the defensive personnel fit his system extremely well and players such as Gibbs-White, Murillo and Hudson-Odoi provide genuine individual quality.
But this is another summer of substantial change. Anderson is an enormous loss, Glasner is implementing a new system and the squad may still change further before the transfer deadline. The opening defeat against Leeds was also a reminder that Forest are unlikely to become a finished product overnight.
We expect them to improve as the season progresses. Once Glasner’s ideas become established, Forest should be far too strong to become seriously involved in the relegation battle.
However, we also expect enough inconsistency along the way to keep them in the middle of the table rather than challenging the European places.
Our prediction: 14th.