Our prediction: 7th
Expected finish: 5th–9th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆☆ (7/10)
Biggest question
Can Matthias Jaissle rebuild Newcastle quickly enough after losing Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon in the same summer?
Why we have Newcastle in 7th
Newcastle United are entering one of the biggest transition seasons of the post-takeover era. The first major change came in the dugout. Eddie Howe stepped down in July after almost five years in charge, ending a hugely successful period that brought Champions League football and the 2025 Carabao Cup to St James’ Park. Newcastle appointed Matthias Jaissle as his replacement on 5 August. The 38-year-old arrives after successful spells with RB Salzburg and Al-Ahli and brings a high-intensity, aggressive pressing philosophy that should feel relatively familiar to a squad developed under Howe.
The bigger concern is the amount of elite talent that has left. Bruno Guimarães has joined Arsenal, Sandro Tonali has moved to Tottenham and Anthony Gordon has signed for Barcelona. Losing one of those players would have been significant. Losing all three in the same window represents a fundamental restructuring of Newcastle’s midfield and attack.
Newcastle have responded with several interesting signings. Aladji Bamba has arrived from Monaco, Bazoumana Touré from Hoffenheim, Sean Steur from Ajax and Amar Dedić at right-back. Goalkeepers Lukáš Horníček and Ewen Jaouen have also joined.
There is a clear strategy behind the recruitment, but there is also considerable risk. Newcastle are replacing established Premier League stars with younger players whose ceilings may be high but who cannot automatically be expected to reproduce the same level immediately. That is why we have them seventh rather than inside our top six.
Key transfers
In: Aladji Bamba, Bazoumana Touré, Sean Steur, Amar Dedić, Lukáš Horníček, Ewen Jaouen.
Out: Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Anthony Gordon.
Bamba looks like the most obvious attempt to replace some of the physicality lost with Tonali. The Monaco midfielder is aggressive, athletic and comfortable protecting the defence, qualities Newcastle badly need following such a major midfield reshuffle.
Touré is perhaps the most exciting attacking addition. He produced 14 goals and assists in 30 Bundesliga appearances for Hoffenheim last season and arrives as the natural replacement for Gordon on the left. At only 20, however, there will inevitably be an adaptation period.
Steur could become one of the more interesting young players in the Premier League. The 18-year-old has already impressed during pre-season and may be asked to take on more responsibility following Guimarães’ departure than Newcastle originally intended.
Dedić has moved straight into the first-team picture and started the opening Premier League match against Liverpool. That immediate trust suggests Jaissle sees him as an important part of the new structure.
Strengths
Newcastle still possess a strong Premier League core. Alexander Isak remains one of the best centre-forwards in the division, while players such as Sven Botman, Lewis Hall, Tino Livramento, Joelinton and Nick Pope give the team experience and quality throughout the spine.
The atmosphere at St James’ Park remains a major advantage as well. Newcastle can overwhelm opponents when the crowd and the team’s intensity combine, and Jaissle’s football should suit that environment. His teams are built around aggressive pressing, quick transitions and attacking vertically as soon as possession is recovered.
That makes the managerial appointment logical. Newcastle are not attempting to move from Howe’s high-intensity football towards a completely different possession-based model. Jaissle should be able to retain many of the aggressive characteristics supporters have become accustomed to while gradually adding his own tactical ideas.
The opening 2-2 draw with Liverpool was encouraging in that respect. Newcastle took an early lead through Anthony Elanga, regained the advantage late through Joe Willock and were only denied victory by a 99th-minute penalty. The performance showed plenty of energy and attacking threat despite the upheaval of the summer.
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The midfield is the obvious problem. Guimarães and Tonali were not simply good players. They were central to how Newcastle controlled matches, progressed possession and pressed opponents.
Replacing both simultaneously is enormously difficult. Bamba may reproduce some of Tonali’s ball-winning ability, but Newcastle still need someone capable of controlling the rhythm of matches in the way Guimarães did. Steur has enormous potential, but asking an 18-year-old to immediately become the creative heartbeat of a European-chasing Premier League side would be a huge responsibility.
Losing Gordon creates another issue. His pace, pressing and willingness to attack defenders gave Newcastle constant threat from the left. Touré possesses many similar qualities, but Bundesliga production does not automatically translate into Premier League consistency.
There is also the unavoidable uncertainty surrounding Jaissle. His coaching record is impressive, including back-to-back Austrian titles with Salzburg and consecutive AFC Champions League triumphs with Al-Ahli, but this is his first job in England.
Newcastle have changed manager and replaced three of their most influential players at the same time. Even if every decision eventually proves correct, there are likely to be difficult periods while the new structure settles.
Key player
Alexander Isak
Isak becomes even more important after the departures around him. Newcastle have lost considerable creativity and ball progression, which increases the value of a striker capable of converting relatively limited opportunities.
Isak can score in almost every imaginable way. He can run behind defences, combine in tight spaces and create chances for himself when service is poor.
If Newcastle are going to remain in the European conversation during such a transitional season, they need him fit and productive.
The difference between an Isak season of 20-plus league goals and one disrupted by injuries could easily be several places in the table.
Player to watch
Bazoumana Touré Touré has one of the most difficult jobs among Newcastle’s new arrivals because he is replacing Anthony Gordon.
The encouraging part is that the profile makes sense. He is quick, direct and already demonstrated considerable end product in Germany last season. Fourteen goals and assists across 30 Bundesliga appearances is impressive for a young winger, particularly one who still has substantial development ahead of him.
Jaissle’s transition-heavy football should also suit him. Newcastle will want to win the ball high and attack quickly before opponents can reorganise. Touré should frequently find himself receiving possession with space ahead of him rather than facing a permanently settled defence. If he adapts quickly, Gordon’s departure may become considerably less damaging than it currently appears.
What they still need
A high-level central midfielder remains the obvious priority before the transfer window closes. Newcastle have recruited Bamba and Steur, but neither should realistically be expected to replace everything Guimarães and Tonali provided immediately.
A more established midfielder capable of controlling possession and setting the tempo would make the squad look substantially more balanced.
Another experienced wide attacker would also be useful. Touré is an exciting investment, but relying heavily on a young player immediately after losing Gordon creates unnecessary pressure.
The goalkeeper situation has also changed significantly with Horníček and Jaouen arriving. Horníček currently looks more likely to challenge for the starting role, while 20-year-old Jaouen is viewed as a longer-term option.
Newcastle do not need another complete rebuild. They need one or two proven players who can connect the considerable amount of young talent already added.
Verdict
Newcastle are another team whose ceiling is substantially higher than our prediction. If Jaissle adapts quickly, Touré replaces Gordon successfully and one of the younger midfielders develops faster than expected, Newcastle could comfortably challenge for the top five.
There is still a lot to like. Isak remains an elite striker, the defensive core is strong and St James’ Park gives them one of the Premier League’s best home advantages. The opening draw against Liverpool also suggested Newcastle have not lost the intensity that characterised the Howe era.
But we cannot ignore the scale of the departures. Guimarães, Tonali and Gordon were three of Newcastle’s best players. Howe had also been the central figure in the club’s footballing rebuild since 2021.
Replacing all of that within one summer is an enormous undertaking. We expect some excellent performances and believe Newcastle should remain firmly involved in the European race. We also expect inconsistency while Jaissle reshapes the team and the new arrivals settle into Premier League football. That leaves them narrowly outside our predicted European qualification positions.
Our prediction: 7th.