Our prediction: 3rd
Expected finish: 2nd–5th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (8/10)
Biggest question
Can Michael Carrick turn last season’s remarkable recovery into sustained success – and prove Manchester United are genuinely ready to challenge near the top again?
Why we have Manchester United in 3rd
Manchester United are one of the most fascinating teams in the Premier League this season. When Michael Carrick took over midway through 2025/26, United were 15th. They eventually finished third.
That transformation earned Carrick the job permanently, and rather than completely rebuilding the squad again, United have spent the summer strengthening the area that most obviously needed attention: midfield.
Youri Tielemans has arrived from Aston Villa, Andrey Santos from Chelsea and Carlos Baleba from Brighton.
That is an enormous midfield overhaul. Tielemans provides experience, passing quality and control. Santos brings energy, defensive intelligence and considerable development potential. Baleba gives United the athleticism, ball-winning ability and ability to cover ground that the midfield has lacked for years.
Casemiro has left for Inter Miami, so there is a clear changing of the guard rather than simply adding more players to an already overcrowded midfield. We particularly like the Baleba signing.
United have agreed an initial £65m fee with Brighton, and while the Cameroon international is currently recovering from an ankle problem, the injury is not expected to keep him out beyond the early weeks of the campaign.
There is still plenty to fix. Saturday’s extraordinary 2-0 defeat at newly promoted Hull City was a dreadful way to begin the season and immediately demonstrated why nobody should assume last season’s third-place finish means United are suddenly back among the elite.
But we are not going to change a season prediction because of one match. The squad Carrick has now is considerably better balanced than the one he inherited, and we believe United have enough quality to finish inside the Champions League places again.
Key transfers
In: Youri Tielemans, Andrey Santos, Carlos Baleba.
Out: Casemiro.
Tielemans is perhaps the safest of the three major additions. He knows the Premier League inside out and arrives after an excellent spell with Aston Villa, where he became one of Unai Emery’s most trusted midfielders. He made 134 appearances for Villa and played a major role in their Europa League triumph last season.
United have lacked that type of midfielder. Tielemans does not need to dominate physically to influence matches. His value comes from his intelligence, passing range and ability to dictate where possession goes next.
Santos offers something different. At 22, he still has significant room for development, but he already possesses Premier League experience and should give Carrick another genuine option at the base of midfield.
Then comes Baleba. He is the signing that could change the complexion of United’s midfield completely. His athleticism means Carrick can play a more aggressive game without leaving huge spaces whenever possession is lost. United have needed exactly that profile. The only frustration is that he will not be available immediately.
Strengths
United’s biggest strength is that the spine of the team now makes sense. That sounds remarkably simple, but it has not always been the case at Old Trafford. Carrick restored players to more natural positions after taking charge last season and moved away from the tactical confusion that had characterised the final months under Ruben Amorim. The improvement was dramatic.
Bruno Fernandes remains the creative heartbeat.
Whatever changes take place around him, United still possess one of the Premier League’s best chance creators. Giving Fernandes greater freedom while placing a more athletic midfield behind him should maximise his strengths. There is quality further forward too.
Benjamin Šeško, Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo and Marcus Rashford give Carrick several different attacking profiles.
Rashford’s situation is particularly interesting. After loan spells with Aston Villa and Barcelona, he has returned to Old Trafford, and Carrick has publicly praised both his attitude and physical condition during pre-season. A productive Rashford would effectively give United another major attacking addition without spending a transfer fee. Carrick himself has become another strength.
There was initially understandable scepticism about appointing a former player, but the evidence from last season is difficult to argue with. United became more organised, more resilient and considerably harder to beat. Now we find out what he can do with a full season and a squad increasingly built for his football.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
Hull exposed several of them immediately. United dominated possession but lacked intensity, struggled to create clear opportunities and were punished by a newly promoted side that looked far more comfortable with the occasion.
Tielemans and Santos both endured difficult competitive debuts. That does not suddenly make either player a poor signing, but it was a reminder that assembling a talented midfield and developing an effective midfield are two different things. The defence also worries us.
Matthijs de Ligt missed the opening game as he continues his recovery, while Lisandro Martínez’s fitness record remains a concern.
United cannot build a title challenge around constantly changing centre-back combinations. Left-back is another position that could still be strengthened. United are pursuing Barcelona’s Alejandro Balde, although Barcelona’s valuation of around €45m makes a permanent deal difficult and a loan has also been discussed.
That interest tells its own story. Luke Shaw remains an excellent footballer when fit, but United need greater certainty over an entire season. The other concern is expectation.
Carrick’s extraordinary recovery last season has changed the standard. Finishing sixth would now feel like regression rather than progress. Manchester United are expected to compete near the top again. That brings a completely different kind of pressure.
Key player
Bruno Fernandes
For all the new signings, Fernandes remains the most important player at Manchester United. He is still the player most likely to create something when a match becomes static.
United can improve their midfield structure, become more athletic and defend better, but ultimately somebody still needs to turn possession into chances. Fernandes does that better than anyone else in the squad. Carrick also appears to understand how best to use him.
Rather than asking Fernandes to constantly drop deep and solve every stage of United’s build-up, the stronger midfield behind him should allow the captain to operate closer to the opposition penalty area.
That is where he is most dangerous. His performance at Hull was poor, like much of the team, but that does not change his importance over a 38-game season. If United finish third, Fernandes will almost certainly have played a major part in it.
Player to watch
Carlos Baleba
Baleba could be the player who finally gives Manchester United the midfield balance they have spent years searching for. He is only 22, but his Premier League experience with Brighton means there should be less adaptation required than with a player arriving from abroad.
His greatest asset is mobility. Baleba can cover large spaces, compete physically, recover possession and carry the ball forward. Those qualities should give the players around him greater freedom.
Tielemans does not need to cover every blade of grass if Baleba is alongside him. Fernandes can stay higher. United’s full-backs can attack more aggressively knowing there is athletic protection behind them.
That is why this transfer matters beyond Baleba’s individual performances. He potentially makes several teammates better. The ankle injury means supporters will have to wait a little longer to see him, but once fit, we expect him to become a regular starter.
What they still need
A left-back. That is the clearest remaining weakness, and United’s pursuit of Alejandro Balde shows the club recognise it too. If they can secure Balde – permanently or on loan – we would probably increase our assessment of the transfer window from 8/10.
Another centre-back would not hurt either. De Ligt’s current fitness issue and Martínez’s injury history leave Carrick slightly too dependent on circumstances going his way. Beyond that, we would resist the temptation to keep buying.
United have spent years changing direction every summer. There is finally some logic to the squad. The midfield has been rebuilt. The attack has several options. Young players such as Shea Lacey should also be given opportunities rather than having their pathway blocked by another collection of expensive signings. One or two targeted additions are enough.
Verdict
Saturday was embarrassing. A Manchester United side predicted by us to finish third should not begin its season by losing 2-0 at newly promoted Hull.
But predictions made across 38 matches should not be rewritten because of 90 minutes. There is too much we like about what Carrick has built. United went from 15th to third after his appointment last season. They have subsequently added Tielemans, Santos and Baleba to the weakest area of the team. Fernandes remains an elite creator, Mbeumo provides proven Premier League attacking quality and Šeško should continue developing.
Most importantly, there finally appears to be a coherent idea behind the recruitment. That does not mean we see United as champions. Arsenal and Manchester City are stronger, more established and possess fewer obvious weaknesses.
United remain vulnerable defensively, there are fitness concerns and the Hull defeat demonstrated that Carrick still has substantial work ahead of him. But we believe last season’s recovery was more than a temporary bounce.
Carrick has earned the opportunity to build on it, and the club have given him a midfield capable of playing the football he wants. We expect some frustrating results along the way.
We also expect Manchester United to finish above Chelsea, Liverpool and the rest of the chasing pack and secure Champions League football for a second consecutive season.
Our prediction: 3rd.