Our prediction: 2nd
Expected finish: 1st–3rd
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆☆ (7/10)
Biggest question
Can Enzo Maresca successfully take over from Pep Guardiola while rebuilding a midfield that has lost so much of the experience and control that defined Manchester City for years?
Why we have Manchester City in 2nd
For the first time in a decade, Manchester City have begun a Premier League season without Pep Guardiola in the dugout. That alone makes 2026/27 fascinating.
Guardiola’s departure closes the greatest period in the club’s history, and City have chosen a familiar face to begin the next one. Enzo Maresca knows the club from his previous time working within City’s structure and arrives with a footballing philosophy heavily influenced by Guardiola, but this is unquestionably his team now.
He has also inherited a squad undergoing substantial change. Bernardo Silva, John Stones and Nathan Aké had already departed before pre-season. Rodri has subsequently left, while Savinho completed a £75m move to Tottenham on 25 August, potentially rising to £85m. Nico González is also close to leaving for Newcastle.
That is an enormous amount of experience and technical quality disappearing in one summer. The major addition so far is Elliot Anderson, signed from Nottingham Forest for a reported club-record £116m. City are also moving aggressively to reshape the squad before the window closes, with Palmeiras winger Allan Elias set to arrive for around £34m and Lille midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi another major target.
Despite all the upheaval, the central reason we still have City second is simple. Look at the players who remain. Erling Haaland. Phil Foden. Gianluigi Donnarumma. Joško Gvardiol. Rúben Dias. Marc Guéhi. Rayan Cherki. Antoine Semenyo. Rayan Aït-Nouri. Omar Marmoush. There is still enough quality here to win the Premier League. We simply think Arsenal currently look a little more settled.
Key transfers
In: Elliot Anderson, Jeremy Monga, Pierce Charles. Allan Elias deal agreed, subject to completion.
Out: Rodri, Savinho, Bernardo Silva, John Stones, Nathan Aké.
Anderson is obviously the headline addition. £116m is an extraordinary investment, but City have bought a midfielder who already understands the Premier League and whose profile makes considerable sense for Maresca.
He is energetic, aggressive and extremely effective at regaining possession. Last season he recorded at least 10 possession regains in 11 separate Premier League matches – more than any other player. But Anderson should not be judged as a direct Rodri replacement. That would be unfair.
Rodri provided something almost unique. He controlled the rhythm of City’s football, protected the defence and gave Guardiola a midfielder capable of determining where matches were played. Anderson brings different qualities.
He can make City younger, quicker and more dynamic centrally, but Maresca must build a midfield structure around those qualities rather than expecting him to simply reproduce what came before. The departure of Savinho creates another issue.
He made 84 appearances for City and, despite never becoming an automatic starter, provided pace, creativity and width. Tottenham have paid heavily for him, so the transfer makes financial sense, but City now need to ensure their attacking depth does not become unnecessarily thin.
Strengths
Erling Haaland remains the biggest one. As long as City have arguably the world’s best penalty-box striker leading their attack, they are going to score an enormous number of goals.
Haaland has now reached 200 appearances for the club, and Maresca inherits a centre-forward capable of turning relatively ordinary attacking performances into victories. Around him, the attacking options are excellent.
Phil Foden should remain central to the new era, while Rayan Cherki offers the kind of invention City occasionally lacked when opponents defended deep last season.
Cherki’s contribution against Bournemouth demonstrated precisely what he can offer. City trailed 1-0 late in Sunday’s opening match before the Frenchman came from the bench and supplied both goals as Marc Guéhi equalised in the 84th minute and Joško Gvardiol scored the winner in stoppage time.
Antoine Semenyo gives Maresca another powerful and direct attacking option, while Jeremy Doku remains capable of destroying defenders one-on-one when fit. Defensively, there is still enormous quality.
Donnarumma is an elite goalkeeper. Dias provides leadership, Gvardiol is one of the best defenders in the league and Guéhi gives City another proven England international capable of operating in several different defensive structures. Maresca therefore does not need to rebuild Manchester City from the ground up. He needs to reshape an already outstanding squad.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
The midfield. It is impossible to look anywhere else. City have lost several of the players who gave their football control and intelligence, and Rodri’s departure is the most difficult to overcome. Anderson is an excellent addition, but City still need another midfielder.
The club appear to agree. They are working on the signing of Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille, while Chelsea’s Enzo Fernández remains another ambitious target. Nico González’s expected departure for Newcastle could help finance further business. There is also the Guardiola question. Maresca is not walking into a normal managerial vacancy. He is replacing the most successful manager in Manchester City’s history.
Every tactical adjustment will be compared with Guardiola. Every poor run will create questions about whether the dynasty is ending. Every big Champions League defeat will generate another discussion about what has changed. Maresca therefore needs results quickly.
The opening victory over Bournemouth was encouraging, particularly because City demonstrated the resilience to come from behind, but they required two goals after the 83rd minute to escape with the points. It was a winning start. It was not yet evidence that the transition will be seamless.
Key player
Erling Haaland
Sometimes the obvious answer is the correct one. Maresca can change the midfield structure, alter City’s build-up and introduce different pressing patterns, but ultimately Manchester City possess something almost every other Premier League club lacks:
A striker who can realistically score 30 league goals. Haaland remains the reference point. City will probably become slightly more direct under Maresca than they were during Guardiola’s most possession-heavy seasons, and that could actually suit him.
Get the ball forward earlier, attack space more aggressively and allow Haaland to engage defenders before they have organised themselves. There are very few centre-backs in world football who want that contest. If Haaland stays fit for the majority of the season, City will be in the title race.
Player to watch
Elliot Anderson
Nobody arrives for £116m without enormous expectations. Anderson now has to demonstrate that he can go from being one of the Premier League’s best midfielders outside the traditional elite to controlling matches for a team expected to win almost every week.
The physical qualities are obvious. He presses, tackles, carries possession and covers huge amounts of ground. What will determine his success at City is how quickly he develops the more subtle side of the role – knowing when to accelerate a move, when to slow the game down and where to position himself when City have 70% of the ball.
His Premier League debut for City unfortunately ended early against Bournemouth after he was forced off with a knee problem. Maresca subsequently indicated that the initial signs were encouraging rather than suggesting a serious injury. City need that diagnosis to be correct. Anderson is already too important to the new midfield.
What they still need
Another central midfielder is essential. Even before the latest departures, this was the obvious area requiring attention. If Nico González leaves as expected, the need becomes greater still.
Bouaddi is an extremely exciting option, but at 18 he would represent another investment in potential rather than an immediate replacement for Rodri’s experience.
That is why the links with Enzo Fernández are particularly interesting. City could use a midfielder who is already comfortable controlling major Premier League matches. The other issue is the wing. Savinho has gone to Tottenham, Allan Elias is set to arrive from Palmeiras and Omar Marmoush is attracting interest from Spurs as well.
City should be extremely careful about allowing too many attackers to leave simultaneously. Doku is currently dealing with a calf injury, which illustrates how quickly apparently excellent attacking depth can disappear. We therefore expect City to remain extremely active until the window closes. Their final transfer-window rating could easily end up higher than our current 7/10.
Verdict
Manchester City are beginning a new era, but anyone expecting them to simply disappear from the title race is likely to be disappointed.
There is too much quality here. Haaland remains an extraordinary goalscorer. Foden is entering what should be the prime years of his career. Cherki can unlock defences, Semenyo gives them power and directness, and the defensive unit contains several genuinely elite players. Anderson could become an outstanding signing.
Maresca is also not being asked to introduce a completely alien footballing philosophy. He understands City’s structure and many of the principles he wants to implement will already be familiar to the squad. His first league match showed some of that – but also demonstrated that the new City remains a work in progress.
Our hesitation comes from the scale of the transition. Pep Guardiola has gone. Rodri has gone. Bernardo Silva has gone. John Stones has gone. Nathan Aké has gone. Savinho has now gone. Those are not minor changes around the edges of the squad.
They represent the end of a significant part of the Manchester City side we have known. Arsenal, by comparison, enter the season with greater continuity and have strengthened an already championship-winning squad. That is the difference for us.
We expect City to push Arsenal extremely hard. We would not be remotely surprised if they won the league, and the remaining days of the transfer window could strengthen their case considerably. But before the season, we predicted Arsenal first and Manchester City second. We are sticking with it.
Our prediction: 2nd.