Our prediction: 5th
Expected finish: 3rd–7th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆☆☆ (6/10)
Biggest question
Can Andoni Iraola restore Liverpool’s intensity and consistency after a disappointing title defence – and can the club adequately replace Mohamed Salah?
Why we have Liverpool in 5th
Liverpool enter 2026/27 in a very different position from 12 months ago. After winning the Premier League in Arne Slot’s first season, expectations were enormous. Instead, their title defence unravelled and Liverpool eventually finished fifth, a remarkable 25 points behind champions Arsenal despite the huge investment made in the squad.
Slot paid the price, and Liverpool have turned to former Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola. We like the appointment. Iraola’s Bournemouth side were aggressive, intense and extremely difficult to play against. His teams press with purpose, attack quickly after winning possession and generally play the kind of front-foot football that Anfield responds to.
But he inherits some serious problems. The biggest is obvious: Mohamed Salah has gone. Salah was not simply Liverpool’s best attacker. For years he was their guarantee of goals, assists and match-winning moments. Removing that level of production from any team changes its entire attacking structure.
There have been other significant departures too. Andy Robertson and Ibrahima Konaté have left, while Curtis Jones has moved to Inter Milan. Liverpool have therefore lost experience and depth across several areas of the squad.
Liverpool have made additions. Highly rated centre-back Jérémy Jacquet has arrived from Rennes, Víctor Muñoz strengthens the attack and Ronald Araújo has joined on loan. But Iraola has publicly acknowledged that the squad still needs reinforcement, particularly in wide attacking positions.
That is why we have Liverpool fifth. There is enough elite talent here to challenge much higher, but the squad does not currently look complete enough for us to put them alongside Arsenal and Manchester City.
Key transfers
In: Jérémy Jacquet, Víctor Muñoz, Ronald Araújo.
Out: Mohamed Salah, Andy Robertson, Ibrahima Konaté, Curtis Jones.
Jacquet could prove particularly important. Liverpool agreed a deal worth around £55m, potentially rising to £60m, for the young French centre-back. His arrival was delayed by the shoulder injury that ended his previous season, but he recovered sufficiently to feature during pre-season and was handed his Premier League debut against Newcastle.
Araújo is a very different signing. Liverpool are getting an established international defender with considerable experience at the highest level. If he stays fit, the Barcelona loanee can provide exactly the aggression and leadership required following Konaté’s departure.
The problem is further forward. Liverpool have been pursuing Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint-Germain and have also explored other wide options. Iraola has made no secret of the fact that reinforcements are needed.
That business could dramatically alter how we view their transfer window. As things stand, however, replacing Salah remains unfinished business.
Strengths
The ceiling of Liverpool’s best players remains extremely high. Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Ryan Gravenberch, Virgil van Dijk and Alisson provide a core capable of competing with almost anyone.
The challenge is getting more from them collectively. Wirtz endured an underwhelming first Premier League season after his huge transfer from Bayer Leverkusen, but there have been encouraging signs during pre-season. Iraola has used him centrally behind Isak, potentially giving Liverpool a clearer structure through the middle.
That partnership could become decisive. Isak also has considerably more to offer after a difficult first campaign at Anfield. Liverpool spent £125m to sign one of the Premier League’s best centre-forwards, and they need him to start looking like one consistently.
Mac Allister remains an outstanding midfielder, while Szoboszlai has committed his future to the club with a new five-year contract. Then there is Iraola himself. Liverpool wanted a coach capable of restoring aggression and intensity to their football. Few managers in England demonstrated those qualities more effectively last season. If the players embrace his methods quickly, Liverpool could become extremely uncomfortable opponents again.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
Squad depth worries us. Curtis Jones’ departure has left Liverpool particularly thin in central midfield. Behind Mac Allister, Gravenberch and Szoboszlai, the senior alternatives are limited, with Wataru Endo and youngster Trey Nyoni among the options. That looks dangerous for a manager whose football demands enormous physical output.
Liverpool also begin the season with several long-term injury issues. Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike and Giovanni Leoni have all been recovering from serious injuries. Ekitike ruptured his Achilles in April, Bradley underwent surgery following a significant knee injury and Leoni has been working his way back from an ACL tear.
Ekitike’s absence is particularly frustrating because it removes another proven attacking option at precisely the moment Liverpool are trying to compensate for Salah’s departure.
The defensive transition remains another concern. Liverpool conceded too many dangerous opportunities last season, and the same weakness was visible in their opening 2-2 draw at Newcastle. They controlled 61% of possession and created plenty themselves, but Newcastle repeatedly found space when Liverpool lost the ball.
That is something Iraola has to fix quickly. His football can be aggressive without being reckless, but it requires every part of the team to press and recover together. At the moment, Liverpool do not always do that.
Key player
Florian Wirtz
This feels like the season when Liverpool need Wirtz to become the player they thought they were buying. His talent is unquestionable. He can receive between the lines, turn in tight areas, create chances and score himself. At Bayer Leverkusen he was one of Europe’s most influential attacking midfielders.
Last season never really clicked. There were excellent individual moments, but not enough sustained influence to justify the enormous expectations surrounding his arrival. Iraola’s system may suit him better.
Using Wirtz behind Isak places him closer to goal and gives him a defined creative role rather than asking him to constantly drift around looking for space. With Salah gone, somebody has to assume much greater attacking responsibility. Wirtz is the obvious candidate.
Player to watch
Jérémy Jacquet
Liverpool have made a substantial investment in Jacquet because they believe he can become a major part of their defence. He is only 21, which means mistakes are inevitable, particularly in a system that asks centre-backs to defend large spaces.
But the potential is obvious. Jacquet is quick, physically strong and comfortable stepping forward with possession. Those characteristics make him particularly suitable for Iraola’s aggressive approach. His Premier League debut at Newcastle came immediately, demonstrating the level of trust Liverpool already have in him.
With Konaté gone and Van Dijk now in the latter stages of his career, Liverpool desperately need the next generation of their defence to emerge. Jacquet could be the first piece.
What they still need
A right winger is essential. Liverpool cannot replace Salah directly because there simply is not another Mohamed Salah available. But they do need a player capable of providing pace, one-on-one threat and consistent end product from the right side.
Their pursuit of Bradley Barcola makes sense in that context, although negotiations with PSG remain difficult. Liverpool have also considered alternative wide targets. We would also like another central midfielder.
Liverpool’s starting trio is excellent, but the drop-off in depth is substantial. One injury to Mac Allister, Gravenberch or Szoboszlai could create a serious problem during a season involving Premier League, Champions League and domestic cup football.
There is also speculation around Cody Gakpo, with Tottenham interested while Liverpool continue their pursuit of Barcola. Selling him before securing sufficient replacements would represent an unnecessary gamble.
The final days of the transfer window therefore matter enormously. Bring in two high-quality additions and Liverpool’s window suddenly looks much stronger. Fail to do so and Iraola begins his first season with a squad that appears unnecessarily thin.
Verdict
Liverpool are probably the team in our predicted top five with the widest range of possible outcomes. We can absolutely imagine them challenging for the title. Isak could return to his Newcastle level. Wirtz could explode in his second Premier League season. Iraola could transform the intensity of the team, and another couple of major signings could arrive before the transfer deadline.
If all of that happens, fifth will look pessimistic. But there are simply too many questions for us to put Liverpool higher right now. Salah has gone. Konaté and Robertson have gone. Jones has gone. Ekitike and Bradley are injured. The wide attacking options are incomplete and midfield depth is concerning.
Most importantly, Iraola has inherited a team that finished 25 points behind Arsenal last season. The opening 2-2 draw at Newcastle showed both sides of Liverpool perfectly. They created enough opportunities to win and demonstrated the aggressive attacking football their new manager wants, but they were vulnerable defensively and required Szoboszlai’s 99th-minute penalty to rescue a point.
We expect improvement. We expect Wirtz and Isak to have better seasons, and we believe Iraola is a very good appointment for this particular squad. But Manchester United, Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal currently look more complete to us.
Liverpool should return to the Champions League places conversation and could easily outperform this prediction if the remaining transfer business goes well. For now, though, we have them narrowly outside the top four.
Our prediction: 5th.