Our prediction: 17th
Expected finish: 14th–18th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆☆ (7/10)
Biggest question
Have Leeds done enough to move forward after surviving their first season back in the Premier League?
Why we have Leeds in 17th
Leeds United achieved the main objective last season. Their first campaign back in the Premier League ended with a respectable 14th-place finish, giving Daniel Farke the opportunity to build rather than having to start again in the Championship.
The summer business has been interesting – and, in several areas, ambitious. Harry Wilson arrived on a free transfer after leaving Fulham, having produced 10 Premier League goals and seven assists last season. That looks like excellent business for a team that needs more reliable end product in attacking areas.
Leeds have also invested heavily at the other end. Tarik Muharemović has joined from Sassuolo, while James Trafford arrived from Manchester City for a club-record fee and immediately became the new number one. Nico Elvedi adds further international experience to the defence.
Those additions make Leeds stronger in some important areas. However, there have also been significant departures. Pascal Struijk has moved to Brighton, Illan Meslier has left after losing his starting place, and Sam Byram has now departed as well.
For us, Leeds remain difficult to place. There is enough quality here to finish several positions above 17th, but the bottom half of the Premier League looks competitive and we are not convinced they have made a sufficiently large step forward to remove themselves completely from the relegation conversation.
Key transfers
In: Harry Wilson, Tarik Muharemović, James Trafford, Nico Elvedi.
Out: Pascal Struijk, Illan Meslier, Sam Byram.
The standout signing could ultimately be Trafford. Leeds have paid a club-record fee for the England international, which tells you how highly they rate him. He started the season by producing a Player of the Match performance in the 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest, an encouraging early indication that the investment may pay off.
Muharemović is another signing with considerable upside. The 6ft 4in Bosnia international arrives after a strong season with Sassuolo and gives Leeds greater physical presence at centre-back.
Wilson, meanwhile, may be the smartest piece of business of the lot. Seventeen direct goal contributions in the Premier League last season is precisely the kind of proven output a bottom-half side needs.
Strengths
- Strong home support
- More Premier League experience throughout the squad
- Improved goalkeeping situation
- Greater creativity with Harry Wilson
Elland Road remains one of Leeds’ biggest weapons. Farke’s side showed last season that they can make life extremely uncomfortable for considerably stronger opponents at home.
There is also greater continuity than there was 12 months ago. Leeds are no longer entering the Premier League wondering whether their Championship players can handle the division. Farke now knows which members of his squad can perform at this level and where the weaknesses lie.
The spine also looks stronger. Trafford in goal, Muharemović and Joe Rodon among the defensive options, Ethan Ampadu in midfield and Dominic Calvert-Lewin in attack gives Leeds a solid physical foundation.
Weaknesses
- Still lacking consistent goals
- Struijk’s departure leaves a significant hole
- Several attacking players need greater consistency
- Limited margin for error if important players are injured
AdvertisementGoals remain the biggest concern. Wilson adds output, but Leeds cannot expect him to solve the attacking problem alone. Dominic Calvert-Lewin offers Premier League experience and a physical presence, but the question remains whether Leeds have a forward capable of producing consistently enough across an entire season.
Losing Struijk is significant as well. Muharemović may prove to be an excellent replacement, but replacing a defender already accustomed to the team and the Premier League always carries an element of risk.
One positive entering the season is availability. Farke reported an almost fully fit squad before the opening fixture, with Ilia Gruev’s return from a long-term knee problem also progressing well.
Key player
Ethan Ampadu
Ampadu remains the player who gives Leeds their structure. His positional discipline, physicality and versatility are enormously important to the way Farke wants his side to play. He can protect the defence, help Leeds compete for second balls and provide the platform from which the more attacking players operate.If Leeds are dragged into another survival battle, Ampadu is exactly the type of player they will want in the middle of it.
Player to watch
Harry Wilson
This looks like a very clever signing.
Wilson arrives with proven Premier League production and gives Leeds something they have often lacked: a player capable of creating or scoring a goal without the team necessarily dominating the match.
His set-piece delivery should also be valuable in tight games where Leeds may have relatively few clear opportunities.
What they still need
A reliable goalscorer would change our assessment considerably.
The transfer window remains open until 1 September, so Leeds still have time to act.
Another attacking player capable of reaching double figures would give Farke much greater flexibility and reduce the dependence on Calvert-Lewin and Wilson. Additional depth in central midfield would not hurt either, particularly over a long season.
Verdict
Leeds are better equipped for the Premier League than they were a year ago.
Trafford could be an outstanding signing, Wilson brings proven attacking output and Muharemović has the potential to make the loss of Struijk far less damaging than it initially appears. Keeping Daniel Farke also provides continuity after a solid first season back in the division.
But this is a prediction table, and somebody has to finish immediately above the relegation places. We still see enough question marks around Leeds’ goalscoring and overall squad depth to believe they will spend part of the campaign looking over their shoulders. Unlike Hull, Ipswich and Coventry, however, Leeds have already demonstrated that this core of players can survive in the Premier League. We expect another difficult season – but ultimately another successful survival fight.
Our prediction: 17th.