Our prediction: 13th
Expected finish: 10th–16th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆☆ (7/10)
Biggest question
How quickly can Álvaro Arbeloa reshape Fulham after the departure of Marco Silva and several important attacking players?
Why we have Fulham in 13th
Fulham have become one of the Premier League’s more dependable mid-table clubs, but this summer has brought considerably more upheaval than they have been accustomed to.
The biggest change is in the dugout. Marco Silva left Fulham to take charge of Benfica, ending a hugely successful five-year spell in west London. Fulham subsequently appointed Álvaro Arbeloa, giving the former Real Madrid coach his first managerial job in English football.
That makes Fulham one of the more difficult sides to assess. Silva gave the club a clear identity and repeatedly produced competitive Premier League teams without requiring enormous spending. Replacing him is therefore not simply a case of changing the man on the touchline. Arbeloa has inherited a squad accustomed to playing a particular way and now has to put his own stamp on it.
The early signs suggest he intends to do exactly that. Alex Iwobi has operated deeper in central midfield during pre-season, while the full-backs have been encouraged to attack aggressively. Timothy Castagne, Antonee Robinson and Ryan Sessegnon all scored during Fulham’s preparations, which provides an early indication of how important those positions may become.
The squad itself has changed significantly as well. Harry Wilson has left for Leeds, removing a player who contributed 17 Premier League goals and assists last season – 36 per cent of Fulham’s entire league goal output. Raúl Jiménez has also departed, while Issa Diop has joined Ipswich.
Fulham have responded with an intriguing collection of younger players, including Gonzalo García, César Palacios, Oscar Bobb and Shea Charles. The club’s current first-team squad confirms all four among Arbeloa’s options.
There is plenty of talent here. What is less certain is whether it will immediately produce the consistency Fulham enjoyed under Silva.
Key transfers
In: Gonzalo García, César Palacios, Oscar Bobb, Shea Charles.
Out: Harry Wilson, Raúl Jiménez, Issa Diop.
Gonzalo García is arguably the most interesting addition. The young Spanish forward started each of Fulham’s final three pre-season matches and appears to have moved ahead of Rodrigo Muniz in the early battle to lead the attack. He also marked his competitive debut by scoring against Chelsea on Monday night.
Oscar Bobb gives Arbeloa a technically gifted and versatile attacking player who can operate between the lines or from wider positions. Fulham badly needed additional creativity after losing Wilson, and Bobb has the ability to provide it if he can establish himself as a regular Premier League starter.
César Palacios adds another technically strong option in the attacking midfield positions, while Shea Charles strengthens central midfield and gives Arbeloa additional tactical flexibility.
The age profile is notable. Fulham have moved away from relying so heavily on experienced players and have instead added several footballers with significant room for development. That may prove excellent long-term business. It also creates some short-term uncertainty.
Strengths
Fulham still possess a very solid Premier League core. Joachim Andersen and Calvin Bassey give them an experienced central defensive partnership, while Antonee Robinson remains one of the most dynamic left-backs in the division. Sander Berge provides physical presence in midfield and Bernd Leno remains an established Premier League goalkeeper.
Arbeloa also has an interesting collection of attacking players to work with. García, Bobb, Palacios, Josh King, Kevin and Emile Smith Rowe provide plenty of technical quality, while Muniz offers a more traditional centre-forward option. Fulham should therefore be capable of changing the complexion of their attack without completely changing their structure.
There is also evidence that Arbeloa is willing to trust younger players. Josh King started against Chelsea and scored Fulham’s first goal of the season, while García came off the bench to add another. Despite losing 3-2, Fulham caused Chelsea genuine problems and pushed for an equaliser late in the game. For a team undergoing such significant change, that was an encouraging start.
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The biggest concern is replacing proven production. Wilson’s departure matters enormously. Fulham created only 41 “big chances” last season – the lowest total in the Premier League – and Wilson was directly involved in more than a third of their league goals.
Removing your most productive creative player from an attack that was already struggling to create high-quality chances is an obvious risk.
Jiménez’s departure creates another question. García has made an encouraging start, and Muniz remains at the club, but neither can yet be regarded as a guaranteed source of Premier League goals over an entire season.
There is also the uncertainty surrounding Arbeloa. He may prove an inspired appointment, but succeeding Marco Silva is a difficult task. Silva understood the league, understood the club and had established a remarkably stable environment. Arbeloa is introducing different ideas while simultaneously integrating several new players.
Monday’s 3-2 defeat against Chelsea illustrated both sides of the argument. Fulham showed bravery, attacking promise and some excellent individual moments, but they also looked vulnerable defensively when Chelsea increased the tempo. That inconsistency may be a recurring theme during the first few months.
Key player
Antonee Robinson
Robinson could become even more influential under Arbeloa. His pace and stamina already make him one of the Premier League’s most dangerous attacking full-backs, and Fulham’s pre-season suggests their new manager intends to give the wide defenders considerable freedom to get forward.
That suits Robinson perfectly. He provides width, can carry the ball over long distances and gives Fulham a reliable route out of pressure. His recovery speed is equally important when possession is lost.
In a team containing several young attacking players who are still finding their roles, Robinson offers something extremely valuable: established Premier League quality and consistency.
Player to watch
Gonzalo García
There is an obvious temptation to choose Oscar Bobb, but García could ultimately have the greater influence on Fulham’s season.
Arbeloa gave him three consecutive starts at the end of pre-season, suggesting the new head coach already sees him as a serious candidate to lead the attack. He then scored on his Premier League debut against Chelsea.
That does not suddenly make him a guaranteed 15-goal striker, but it was exactly the start Fulham would have wanted. García is technically accomplished, mobile and comfortable combining with the attacking midfielders around him. If he develops quickly, Fulham may have found their long-term number nine.
What they still need
Another proven attacking player would make us significantly more comfortable about Fulham. There is considerable potential in the current squad, but potential and reliable Premier League production are not the same thing. Wilson’s creativity has not yet been replaced by someone with an equivalent track record, and Jiménez’s departure removes experience from the centre-forward position.
A winger capable of producing both goals and assists would therefore be extremely useful before the transfer window closes.
Another centre-back would also make sense after Diop’s departure. Andersen and Bassey form a strong first-choice pairing, but Fulham need sufficient depth to survive the inevitable injuries and suspensions of a 38-game season.
The squad does not require a major rebuild. One experienced attacking addition, however, could make a substantial difference.
Verdict
Fulham are one of the teams we could easily see finishing three or four places either side of our prediction. There is enough established Premier League quality to prevent us becoming overly concerned. Andersen, Bassey, Robinson, Berge and Leno provide a strong foundation, while the younger attacking players give Arbeloa plenty to work with.
The question is how quickly it all comes together. Marco Silva’s departure is significant, Wilson’s creativity needs replacing and several of Fulham’s most exciting attacking options are still relatively inexperienced at this level.
We think there will be some excellent performances, particularly at Craven Cottage, but also periods when Fulham look like a team undergoing transition.
The opening defeat to Chelsea actually reinforced that assessment. There were enough encouraging attacking signs to suggest Fulham should be comfortably competitive, but enough defensive vulnerability to show why we are reluctant to push them towards the top half just yet. Once Arbeloa’s ideas settle, this could become a very entertaining Fulham side. For now, however, somewhere around the middle of the Premier League feels right.
Our prediction: 13th.