Our prediction: 12th
Expected finish: 9th–15th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (8/10)
Biggest question
Can Everton turn an encouraging rebuild into something more than another comfortable mid-table season?
Why we have Everton in 12th
There is a very different feeling around Everton compared with the club that spent several seasons looking nervously over its shoulder.
David Moyes remains in charge, the move to the Hill Dickinson Stadium has given Everton a new home and the club have been considerably more ambitious in the transfer market. The objective should no longer simply be survival. Everton need to start looking upwards. Their summer recruitment gives them a chance to do exactly that.
Hayden Hackney, Christian Nørgaard, Brennan Johnson, Tyrique George and Merlin Röhl have all joined permanently, giving Moyes a mixture of Premier League experience, Championship quality and younger players with significant room for development.
Hackney is the signing that interests us most. He was outstanding for Middlesbrough last season and arrives after establishing himself as one of the Championship’s best midfielders. Everton have needed greater control and progression through central midfield for some time, and Hackney should provide both.
Nørgaard is a very different type of addition but potentially just as important. His spell at Arsenal never really developed as hoped, but his previous work at Brentford showed exactly what he can provide: positional intelligence, leadership, physicality and the ability to organise the midfield around him.
Brennan Johnson also gives Everton something they badly needed – genuine pace in attacking areas. His arrival came as part of the deal that took Dwight McNeil to Crystal Palace. There is enough improvement here to believe Everton can push towards the top half. We are simply not convinced they have enough attacking quality yet to stay there.
Key transfers
In: Hayden Hackney, Christian Nørgaard, Brennan Johnson, Tyrique George, Merlin Röhl.
Out: Dwight McNeil, Idrissa Gueye, Seamus Coleman.
Hackney represents a significant investment in the midfield and looks ready for the step up. Everton agreed a deal that could rise to £25 million after his excellent campaign with Middlesbrough, and he signed a five-year contract.
Nørgaard effectively replaces the experience lost with Idrissa Gueye’s departure. At 32 he is obviously not a long-term project, but that is not what Everton need him to be. He should give Moyes immediate reliability and tactical discipline.
Johnson could be the player who changes the way Everton attack. Moyes now has someone capable of stretching defences vertically, threatening the space behind full-backs and turning defensive situations into attacks very quickly.
George and Röhl are more developmental additions, although both already know the club after spending last season on loan at Everton. Making those moves permanent provides useful continuity rather than forcing Moyes to integrate an entirely new group.
There has also been an emotional departure. Seamus Coleman’s 17-year Everton career ended this summer after 374 Premier League appearances.
Strengths
Everton should be difficult to beat. That sounds obvious for a David Moyes team, but it remains an important advantage. There is defensive quality throughout the side, with Jordan Pickford behind a back line containing players such as Jarrad Branthwaite and James Tarkowski.
Branthwaite’s fitness is particularly important. He suffered a hamstring injury towards the end of last season but returned to training during pre-season, which was a significant boost ahead of the new campaign.
The midfield also looks considerably stronger. Hackney gives Everton a player who can receive possession under pressure and move the team forward, while Nørgaard provides positional discipline. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall adds another technical option and James Garner gives Moyes further flexibility when available.
There is also a growing amount of pace around the team. Johnson and George can attack defenders directly, something Everton have often lacked when matches become stretched.
The new stadium could become another major strength. Everton’s opening league match there produced a 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace, with Dewsbury-Hall and Thierno Barry scoring. The performance was not perfect, but starting the campaign with a home victory was exactly what the club needed.
If Everton make the Hill Dickinson Stadium a genuinely difficult place for visiting teams, they will have the foundation for a comfortable season.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
The biggest concern remains the attack. Everton have improved the players supplying the forwards, but we are still not completely convinced by the options finishing the chances.
Thierno Barry has potential and Beto can be extremely difficult for defenders to handle physically, but neither currently looks like the kind of striker we would confidently back to deliver 15–20 Premier League goals.
That matters if Everton want to move beyond mid-table. There is also still work to do at right-back. The opening victory against Palace was encouraging overall, but that side of the defence looked vulnerable at times. Palace hit the woodwork twice before Everton took control, and Moyes is still looking to strengthen the squad before the transfer deadline.
Everton also need to prove that their improved technical quality translates into greater creativity against teams that sit deep. Moyes is excellent at constructing competitive sides, but Everton will increasingly encounter opponents who are happy to let them have the ball at home. Breaking those teams down is a different challenge from playing on the counterattack.
Key player
Jordan Pickford
There are more glamorous choices, but Pickford remains enormously important. He has been one of Everton’s most consistent performers through several turbulent seasons and gives the team something every mid-table club desperately needs: a goalkeeper capable of winning points almost single-handedly.
That was evident immediately against Crystal Palace. Everton were under significant pressure during parts of the first half, and Pickford produced an outstanding save to help keep the match scoreless before his team took control.
With a more competitive side in front of him, Everton should hopefully need fewer heroic performances from their goalkeeper. But when they do, Pickford remains capable of providing them.
Player to watch
Hayden Hackney
This is the player we are most interested to see in an Everton shirt. Hackney was one of the Championship’s outstanding midfielders and has earned his opportunity in the Premier League. He is technically secure, progressive with the ball and comfortable taking possession in areas where many midfielders simply play safe.
Everton have too often lacked someone capable of dictating the rhythm of matches from central midfield. Hackney has the potential to become that player.
There will inevitably be an adaptation period – the speed and intensity of Premier League midfield battles are unforgiving – but this feels like a sensible move for both club and player. If Hackney settles quickly, Everton may have acquired a midfielder who becomes central to the team for several years.
What they still need
Another high-quality attacking player would significantly change our view of Everton’s ceiling. The club have maintained contact over a possible return for Jack Grealish, who spent last season on loan at Everton before a broken foot ended his campaign in January. Everton chief executive Angus Kinnear has openly acknowledged that the club would like to bring him back.
That would be a major addition. Grealish would give Everton creativity, ball retention and the ability to draw defenders towards him in the final third. More importantly, he would add a proven Premier League attacker to a squad that still looks slightly short of genuine match-winners.
A right-back would also make sense before the window closes. If Everton can add one more attacking player of genuine quality and strengthen the right side of the defence, this will have been a very impressive summer.
Verdict
Everton are moving in the right direction. For several seasons the discussion surrounding the club was dominated by survival, financial restrictions and instability. That is beginning to change.
Moyes has restored some order, the new stadium gives Everton a platform to grow and the summer recruitment has improved the squad.
Hackney could be an excellent signing. Nørgaard adds leadership and intelligence. Johnson gives them pace, while George and Röhl provide younger options who already understand the club.
The opening 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace was encouraging, but we are reluctant to get carried away after one match. Palace created opportunities of their own, and Everton still have questions to answer in attack.
We think the relegation battles of recent years should now be firmly behind them. Whether they are ready to challenge seriously for Europe is another matter. There is still a gap between Everton and the strongest teams competing for those positions, particularly in terms of attacking quality. If Grealish or another major attacking signing arrives before the deadline, that gap becomes smaller.
For now, we see a considerably improved Everton side finishing safely in mid-table and laying further foundations for the future.
Our prediction: 12th.