Our prediction: 4th
Expected finish: 3rd–6th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (8/10)
Biggest question
Can Xabi Alonso turn Chelsea’s enormous collection of individual talent into a team capable of consistently challenging the Premier League’s best?
Why we have Chelsea in 4th
Chelsea enter another season with a new manager, another collection of expensive signings and the familiar expectation that all of this investment must eventually translate into a genuine title challenge.
This time, however, we think the foundations look considerably stronger. Xabi Alonso has replaced Enzo Maresca, giving Chelsea one of the most highly regarded coaches in European football. Alonso’s work at Bayer Leverkusen established his reputation, and Chelsea have backed him heavily in his first transfer window.
The headline arrival is Morgan Rogers, signed from Aston Villa for a British-record £117 million. Chelsea have also added Maxence Lacroix from Crystal Palace, Marco Palestra from Atalanta, Geovany Quenda from Sporting, Valentin Barco from Strasbourg, Danny Welbeck from Brighton and Jordan Henderson.
It is a fascinating mixture. Rogers and Quenda provide enormous attacking potential. Lacroix brings proven Premier League pace and athleticism to the defence. Palestra is another highly rated young player, while Henderson and Welbeck represent something Chelsea’s recruitment has frequently lacked in recent years: experienced professionals who understand English football.
There have been departures too. Marc Cucurella has joined Real Madrid, Andrey Santos has moved to Manchester United and Alejandro Garnacho has gone to Aston Villa on loan.
Then there is Enzo Fernández. Manchester City are pushing to sign the midfielder before the window closes, and Chelsea reportedly value him at around £120m. Losing him now would create another major problem for Alonso to solve, particularly with the season already underway. As the squad stands today, however, we believe Chelsea are good enough for the Champions League places.
Key transfers
In: Morgan Rogers, Maxence Lacroix, Marco Palestra, Geovany Quenda, Valentin Barco, Danny Welbeck, Jordan Henderson.
Out: Marc Cucurella, Andrey Santos.
Loaned out: Alejandro Garnacho.
Morgan Rogers is clearly the statement signing. £117m is an extraordinary fee, but Chelsea are buying a player who already knows the Premier League and has developed into one of England’s leading attacking talents. He can play centrally, from the left or behind the striker, and his combination of power and technical quality should fit Alonso’s football extremely well.
We have already seen an encouraging glimpse. Rogers scored on his competitive Chelsea debut in Monday night’s 3-2 victory over Fulham, combining impressively with Cole Palmer and João Pedro.
Lacroix could prove almost as important. Chelsea have possessed plenty of talented defenders in recent seasons, but they have often lacked consistency. Lacroix is quick enough to defend large spaces behind an aggressive defensive line and already understands the physical demands of the Premier League.
Quenda is perhaps the most exciting long-term addition. The Portuguese winger is still exceptionally young, but his speed, technical ability and willingness to attack defenders give Alonso another genuine one-on-one threat. Then there are Henderson and Welbeck.
Neither represents Chelsea’s future, but that is precisely why we like the signings. This is an incredibly young squad and sometimes you need players who have experienced difficult Premier League matches, title races and hostile away grounds. Chelsea finally appear to recognise that.
Strengths
The attacking potential is enormous. Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers and João Pedro already look capable of forming one of the Premier League’s most dangerous combinations.
Their performance at Fulham was an immediate demonstration. João Pedro scored after only 31 seconds, Rogers marked his debut with a goal and Palmer added Chelsea’s third shortly after half-time. Palmer remains the central figure.
Last season was disrupted by injury, but Alonso says those problems are now behind him. A fully fit Palmer changes Chelsea completely. He gives them creativity, goals, composure in possession and someone capable of deciding a match with one moment of quality.
There is depth around him too. Rogers can play several attacking roles, Quenda gives Chelsea natural width, while João Pedro can operate as either the focal point or combine with players around him.
Moisés Caicedo remains one of the Premier League’s outstanding defensive midfielders, and Chelsea should become considerably stronger centrally once he returns to full fitness. Alonso is another major strength.
He is tactically flexible rather than committed to one rigid formation. That matters with a squad like Chelsea’s because there are numerous different combinations available to him. The challenge is finding the right ones. If he does, very few Premier League squads possess a higher ceiling.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
The goalkeeper situation remains our biggest concern. Robert Sánchez produced another uncertain performance against Fulham, including an error in the build-up to Josh King’s equaliser. Chelsea ultimately won, but the match again demonstrated how goalkeeper mistakes can undermine otherwise excellent football.
Mike Penders provides competition, but if Chelsea genuinely want to challenge Arsenal and Manchester City, we are not convinced they currently have a title-winning goalkeeper.
There are defensive questions too. Chelsea conceded twice against Fulham and allowed their opponents opportunities to equalise late in the match. The attacking football was excellent in periods, but Alonso will want significantly more control when Chelsea take the lead.
The midfield situation could also change dramatically before the transfer deadline. Manchester City’s pursuit of Enzo Fernández is serious, with Chelsea reportedly willing to consider a sale if their valuation is met and a replacement can be secured. Eduardo Camavinga, Adam Wharton, Alex Scott and Manu Koné have all been mentioned as potential replacements.
Selling Fernández without immediately replacing him would weaken the squad. Finally, there is the familiar Chelsea problem: numbers. There are still too many players.
Nicolas Jackson, Liam Delap and Mykhailo Mudryk are among those whose futures remain uncertain as Chelsea attempt to reduce the squad before the window closes. Alonso needs clarity, not another season spent managing an oversized dressing room.
Key player
Cole Palmer
There is no debate here. Chelsea have spent extraordinary amounts of money, but Palmer remains the player most capable of transforming their season.
Last year was frustrating because injuries prevented him from finding the rhythm that had previously made him one of the Premier League’s outstanding attacking players. Now he is fit again.
Alonso described Palmer as a “world class” player before the opening match and said his injury problems were behind him. The early evidence was encouraging, with Palmer scoring in the victory over Fulham.
What makes him so important is his ability to provide both creativity and goals. Chelsea have plenty of quick players and plenty who can carry the ball. Palmer is the one who consistently sees the decisive pass while also possessing the composure to finish chances himself. If he stays fit, we expect another major season.
Player to watch
Morgan Rogers
The price tag makes it impossible to look anywhere else. Chelsea have paid £117m for Rogers because they believe they are signing one of the defining English attacking players of the next several years. The encouraging thing is that he does not need to learn the league.
He already knows how to handle Premier League intensity, physicality and defensive pressure. That considerably reduces the risk compared with spending a similar amount on someone arriving from another competition.
His versatility should also appeal enormously to Alonso. Rogers can start from the left, operate as a number ten or move into central attacking areas alongside Palmer. He carries the ball powerfully and gives Chelsea another player capable of breaking defensive lines without relying solely on passing combinations. Scoring on his debut was the perfect beginning. The next challenge is justifying that enormous fee over an entire season.
What they still need
A goalkeeper would be our priority. Chelsea may believe Penders can eventually become the long-term number one, but there is a difference between possessing potential and being ready to anchor a Champions League-level Premier League team immediately.
The Fernández situation also needs resolving quickly. If Chelsea keep him, Alonso has another excellent midfield option alongside Caicedo. If they sell him, the replacement needs to arrive immediately. Chelsea cannot afford to spend the autumn attempting to improvise in such an important area.
Beyond that, the emphasis should probably be on departures rather than arrivals. Jackson and several other fringe players could still leave before September 1, and reducing the size of the squad would make Alonso’s job considerably easier. For once, Chelsea do not desperately need another six signings. They need to finish the squad they already have.
Verdict
We think Chelsea are ready to return to the Champions League places. There are still flaws.
The goalkeeper position worries us, defensive control needs improvement and the potential departure of Enzo Fernández could create an unnecessary late-window complication. But look at the attacking talent.
Palmer, Rogers and João Pedro already showed against Fulham what they can produce together. Quenda adds another exciting dimension, while Caicedo’s return should make the midfield considerably stronger.
Most importantly, Chelsea now have Xabi Alonso. The club have spent years accumulating talented young players. The missing ingredient has often been turning those individuals into a coherent football team capable of performing consistently over 38 matches. Alonso has the tactical intelligence to do exactly that.
We are not quite ready to call Chelsea title contenders. Arsenal and Manchester City look stronger, while we have Manchester United narrowly ahead of them as well. But fourth feels realistic. Chelsea should score plenty of goals, Stamford Bridge should become a difficult place to visit again and we expect Rogers to make an immediate impact alongside a rejuvenated Palmer.
If the defensive side develops more quickly than we expect, they could even finish higher. For now, we have them claiming the final Champions League position.
Our prediction: 4th.