Our prediction: 9th
Expected finish: 7th–12th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆☆ (7/10)
Biggest question
Can Brighton absorb another summer of major departures while also coping with European football?
Why we have Brighton in 9th
Brighton have reached the stage where substantial squad turnover almost feels normal. Players leave, replacements arrive, and somehow the overall level rarely seems to fall very far. This summer has provided another serious examination of that model.
Jan Paul van Hecke has joined Tottenham, while long-serving figures Adam Webster, Solly March and Joel Veltman have all left. James Milner has retired after finally breaking the Premier League appearance record last season.
There has also been a significant late blow with Carlos Baleba moving to Manchester United in a deal worth an initial £65m plus potential add-ons. The 22-year-old had developed into one of Brighton’s most valuable midfielders, and losing him removes athleticism, ball-winning ability and enormous potential from the centre of the pitch. Brighton, naturally, have recruited extensively themselves.
Luka Vušković, Pascal Struijk, Costinha, Michael Svoboda, Zadok Yohanna and Rodrigo Rego have all arrived permanently. Vušković is particularly exciting: still only 19, already a Croatia international and physically built for Premier League football. Brighton have signed him from Tottenham on a five-year contract.
There is also Promise David, who has joined on loan from Union Saint-Gilloise and gives Fabian Hürzeler another option at centre-forward. Once again, Brighton appear to have lost a lot without actually looking weak. That is why we still have them in the top half.
Key transfers
In: Luka Vušković, Pascal Struijk, Costinha, Michael Svoboda, Zadok Yohanna, Rodrigo Rego, Promise David.
Out: Carlos Baleba, Jan Paul van Hecke, Adam Webster, Solly March, Joel Veltman, James Milner.
Vušković could eventually become the standout piece of business. He is exceptionally young for a Premier League centre-back but already possesses the height, aggression and attacking threat from set pieces to make an immediate impact. Hürzeler has stressed that he will need time to adapt, which is sensible, but Brighton clearly see enormous potential in him.
Struijk is a more established option and should help compensate for the amount of experience lost from the defensive unit. Costinha is another interesting signing. The Portuguese right-back arrived from Olympiacos after 74 appearances for the Greek club and gives Brighton energy, defensive reliability and another player comfortable in possession.
The question is whether all of those defensive additions compensate for losing Van Hecke, Webster and Veltman during the same summer.
Baleba’s departure creates a different problem. Brighton are accustomed to selling valuable midfielders for substantial fees, but replacing his physical qualities may prove considerably harder than replacing individual defenders.
Strengths
Brighton’s greatest strength remains the structure of the club itself. They recruit for a system rather than simply buying famous players, and that means departures rarely cause the kind of panic seen elsewhere. Players generally arrive with a clear idea of where they fit and what is expected of them.
Hürzeler also now has another year of Premier League experience behind him. His team are aggressive, brave in possession and capable of changing shape within matches. Brighton can press high when necessary but are equally comfortable drawing opponents towards them before playing through the pressure.
There is also a huge amount of young talent throughout the squad. Georginio Rutter should take on greater attacking responsibility following Danny Welbeck’s departure for Chelsea, while Jack Hinshelwood continues to develop into an extremely useful and versatile Premier League player. Maxim De Cuyper offers attacking threat from the left, and Brighton’s pre-season suggested he may even be used further forward.
We have already seen how dangerous that flexibility can be. Brighton opened their Premier League campaign by thrashing Aston Villa 4-0 at the Amex, with Hinshelwood scoring twice and De Cuyper heavily involved. It was an emphatic demonstration that another summer of departures has not removed Brighton’s ability to play excellent football.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
The injury situation is already a concern. Yankuba Minteh is expected to miss around two to three months with a leg injury. That is a substantial blow because his pace and directness give Brighton something different in the final third.
Kaoru Mitoma has also been unavailable, while Brighton entered the opening weekend without several senior players. Losing Baleba at the same time increases the concern. Brighton possess plenty of technically gifted midfielders, but Baleba provided a combination of athleticism and defensive coverage that is difficult to replicate. Against the strongest teams, that could leave them more vulnerable when possession is lost.
There is also Europe to consider. Brighton are involved in the UEFA Conference League playoff, and qualification would give them another demanding schedule of Thursday-Sunday football.
The club have European experience from their Europa League campaign a few seasons ago, but balancing domestic and continental football remains difficult for any squad outside the traditional elite. That is one of the main reasons we stop at ninth rather than pushing Brighton towards sixth or seventh.
Key player
Kaoru Mitoma
When fit, Mitoma remains one of Brighton’s most dangerous attacking players. His ability to receive the ball wide, isolate a defender and create something from very little is invaluable. Brighton can construct intricate attacking moves, but Mitoma gives them an alternative when those combinations are not working.
With Minteh injured, his importance becomes even greater. Brighton need attacking players who can stretch the pitch and force opponents backwards. A fully fit Mitoma does precisely that.
Keeping him available for the majority of the season could be the difference between Brighton finishing comfortably in the top half and slipping towards the middle of the table.
Player to watch
Luka Vušković
Few teenage centre-backs arrive in the Premier League with this much intrigue. At 6ft 4in, Vušković already has the physical profile to compete in England, but there is much more to his game than size. He is comfortable with the ball, aggressive when stepping out of defence and unusually dangerous in the opposition penalty area.
He has already scored 16 goals in 78 senior club appearances, an extraordinary return for a centre-back. Brighton are unlikely to rush him unnecessarily. Lewis Dunk, Struijk, Olivier Boscagli and other defensive options mean Hürzeler can manage his minutes.
But Brighton’s record of developing young talent is precisely why this transfer is so interesting. By the end of the season, Vušković could be one of the players everyone is talking about.
What they still need
A replacement for Baleba has become the obvious priority. Brighton do not necessarily need to find an identical player, but they need someone capable of providing physicality, mobility and defensive security in central midfield.
Another wide attacker would also make sense. Minteh’s injury has reduced Hürzeler’s options considerably, and with European football potentially adding a significant number of matches to the calendar, relying too heavily on Mitoma would be dangerous.
There could still be movement defensively as well. Brighton are currently working on a deal for Young Boys defender Jaouen Hadjam, suggesting the club are not finished strengthening the squad. A strong final week of the transfer window could make this one of Brighton’s better rebuilds.
Verdict
At some point, Brighton’s ability to continually sell important players and replace them has to become more difficult. We just don’t think this is necessarily the season when the model finally stops working.
Van Hecke is a significant loss. Baleba is an even bigger one. The departures of Webster, Veltman, March and Milner also remove a huge amount of experience from the dressing room.
Yet Brighton have again recruited intelligently. Vušković could become an outstanding centre-back. Struijk provides Premier League experience, Costinha gives them another dynamic full-back and there are young players throughout the squad capable of taking another step forward.
Most importantly, the opening 4-0 victory over Aston Villa showed that the actual football remains very good. European commitments and the current injury situation are enough to prevent us placing them any higher. If they qualify for the Conference League proper, there will inevitably be weekends when fatigue and rotation cost them Premier League points.
But Brighton have established themselves as much more than a surprise package. They are now a consistently well-run Premier League club with a clear identity, an excellent recruitment operation and a squad packed with development potential.
We expect another strong season at the Amex, with Brighton spending most of it around the top half and ultimately finishing just inside it.
Our prediction: 9th.