Our prediction: 1st 🏆
Expected finish: 1st–3rd
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (9/10)
Biggest question
Can Arsenal handle the pressure of being the team everyone wants to beat and successfully defend their Premier League title?
Why we have Arsenal as champions
Arsenal finally crossed the line last season. After several years of coming painfully close, Mikel Arteta’s side won the Premier League and entered this summer from a position of strength. Rather than standing still, Arsenal have subsequently made one of the strongest teams in England even stronger.
The biggest signing is Bruno Guimarães, who has joined from Newcastle United for £75m. Arsenal have effectively taken one of the Premier League’s outstanding central midfielders from a direct rival and added him to a midfield already containing Declan Rice and Martin Ødegaard.
Christos Tzolis has arrived from Club Brugge and gives Arteta another major attacking option, while Ezri Konsa has been brought in from Aston Villa to reinforce the defence. Arsenal’s own transfer record confirms Guimarães, Tzolis and Konsa among their summer additions.
Konsa’s arrival has become particularly important because Arsenal begin the season without William Saliba, whose back problem is expected to keep him out for a significant period, while Jurriën Timber has also been unavailable.
There may still be more business. Arsenal continue to be linked with a spectacular late move for Julián Álvarez, while Gabriel Martinelli could leave before the window closes. But even without another major signing, we think this is the strongest squad in the Premier League. That is why Arsenal remain our choice for the title.
Key transfers
In: Bruno Guimarães, Christos Tzolis, Ezri Konsa.
Guimarães is the transformative signing.
Arsenal already possessed enormous physical power through Rice and creativity through Ødegaard. Guimarães adds another player capable of controlling possession, receiving under pressure, progressing the ball and competing aggressively without it.
The possibilities are enormous. Arteta can use Guimarães deeper and release Rice. He can play Rice as the holding midfielder and give Guimarães greater freedom. Against the strongest opposition, Arsenal can field Rice and Guimarães together and potentially dominate central areas physically.
Tzolis solves a different problem. Arsenal have sometimes been too dependent on Bukayo Saka for attacking inspiration from wide positions. Tzolis gives them another player capable of beating opponents, creating chances and contributing goals from the opposite flank.
He has already made an immediate impact. On the opening night against Coventry, Tzolis was involved in two Arsenal goals as the champions began their title defence with an emphatic 3-0 victory.
Konsa may ultimately prove just as important. He brings extensive Premier League experience, can operate centrally or on the right and gives Arteta a proven defender at precisely the moment Saliba’s injury has created uncertainty.
Arsenal have not simply added numbers. They have added players who improve the options available to the manager.
Strengths
The midfield is frightening. Declan Rice, Bruno Guimarães and Martin Ødegaard gives Arsenal almost everything a title-winning midfield could require.
There is physicality, technical quality, creativity, defensive intelligence and leadership. It should also make Arsenal extremely difficult to press. Guimarães is comfortable receiving possession with opponents around him, Rice can carry the ball through midfield and Ødegaard remains one of the Premier League’s best players between the lines.
Then there is the defence. Saliba’s injury is significant, but Gabriel remains outstanding and Konsa gives Arsenal a level of cover they have not always possessed in previous seasons.
David Raya provides stability behind them. Further forward, Saka remains one of the Premier League’s defining attacking players, while Tzolis potentially gives Arsenal far better balance across both sides of the pitch.
The other enormous advantage is continuity. Manchester City have changed manager and lost several hugely influential players. Manchester United are still developing under Michael Carrick. Chelsea are beginning another new managerial cycle under Xabi Alonso, while Liverpool are adapting to Andoni Iraola.
Arsenal do not have that problem. Arteta has spent years constructing this team. The tactical principles are established, the core of the squad knows exactly what is expected and the players have now experienced actually winning the championship. That matters.
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The obvious concern is injuries. Saliba’s absence removes one of the best centre-backs in world football from Arsenal’s defence, and Timber’s problems reduce Arteta’s flexibility further.
Konsa therefore needs to settle immediately. There is also the question of attacking depth. If Martinelli leaves, Arsenal may still need another elite forward before the transfer window closes. The reported interest in Julián Álvarez makes sense precisely because Arsenal have reached the stage where simply adding another decent squad player does not achieve very much. They need signings capable of genuinely improving an already outstanding starting XI.
Then comes the psychological challenge. Winning a first title creates enormous emotion and momentum. Defending it is different. Every opponent wants to beat the champions. Every draw becomes a discussion about whether standards are slipping. Every Manchester City winning run increases the pressure.
Arsenal also have major Champions League ambitions. Trying to win both competitions simultaneously will test the depth of the squad far more severely than simply concentrating on retaining the Premier League.
Key player
Bukayo Saka
For all the money Arsenal have invested elsewhere, Saka remains the player we would least want them to lose. He provides goals, assists and creativity, but his importance goes beyond statistics. Opponents alter their entire defensive structure because of him.
Full-backs require support, midfielders move across to close passing lanes and centre-backs become reluctant to move too far away because Saka can attack the resulting space. That creates opportunities elsewhere.
And with Tzolis now providing a genuine threat from the other flank, concentrating resources on stopping Saka becomes even more difficult. He has already opened his account for the season, scoring Arsenal’s second against Coventry after goalkeeper Carl Rushworth could only parry Tzolis’s delivery into his path.
Saka has been one of the central figures in Arsenal’s development from Champions League hopefuls into champions. He should remain one of the central figures in their attempt to stay there.
Player to watch
Christos Tzolis
This could be one of the signings of the summer. Tzolis arrives with considerable expectations, but the early evidence suggests he is ready to handle them. His competitive Premier League debut could hardly have gone better. Arsenal beat Coventry 3-0, and Tzolis played a role in two of the goals while immediately giving Arteta the width and directness he wanted from the left.
That balance is potentially extremely important. For several seasons, Arsenal’s right side has naturally been the more dangerous because of the relationship between Ødegaard and Saka. If Tzolis becomes equally threatening from the left, opponents face a much more complicated problem. Double up on Saka and Arsenal can switch the attack.
Protect both wings and Rice, Guimarães and Ødegaard suddenly have additional space centrally. Tzolis does not need to become Arsenal’s best attacker. He merely needs to become dangerous enough that opponents cannot ignore him. The opening evidence is very encouraging.
What they still need
Arsenal are in the fortunate position of not desperately needing anything. That separates them from most of their title rivals. The defence has already been reinforced with Konsa, the midfield has been transformed by Guimarães and Tzolis strengthens the attack.
If an opportunity arises to sign another genuinely elite forward, however, they should take it. That explains the reported pursuit of Julián Álvarez. Arsenal are believed to be exploring whether a huge late-window move can be done, although competition and the economics of the deal make it extremely difficult.
There could also be further departures, with Martinelli’s future particularly uncertain. If Martinelli goes, we would want Arsenal to replace him. A 38-game title defence combined with Champions League football leaves little room for a thin attacking rotation. But unlike several rivals, Arsenal are refining rather than rebuilding. The important work has already been done.
Verdict
Arsenal are our Premier League champions for 2026/27. Manchester City remain the biggest threat, and we expect the title race to be extremely competitive.
But Arsenal currently have fewer questions to answer. They have the continuity of Arteta, an established defensive structure, arguably the strongest midfield in the division and multiple attacking players capable of deciding matches.
More importantly, they have strengthened after becoming champions. Bruno Guimarães is exactly the sort of signing a club makes when it wants to turn one championship into an era of sustained success. Tzolis has already demonstrated what he can add, while Konsa provides crucial defensive insurance during Saliba’s absence.
The opening weekend reinforced our confidence. Arsenal did exactly what champions are supposed to do against newly promoted opposition. Coventry were beaten 3-0 at the Emirates, with Kai Havertz, Saka and Ødegaard scoring and Tzolis impressing on his league debut.
There will obviously be far greater tests. The Saliba injury matters. Manchester City will improve under Maresca. United, Chelsea and Liverpool all possess enough quality to take points from anyone.
But over 38 matches, Arsenal look like the most complete team. Last season they proved they could get over the line. This season we think they do it again.
Our prediction: 1st – Premier League champions. 🏆