Our prediction: 8th
Expected finish: 7th–12th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (8/10)
Biggest question
Can Marco Rose maintain the standards set by Andoni Iraola while also guiding Bournemouth through their first European campaign?
Why we have Bournemouth in 8th
Bournemouth were one of the Premier League’s outstanding teams last season. A sixth-place finish represented the best league campaign in the club’s history and secured Europa League football for the first time. What had initially looked like an ambitious project under Andoni Iraola became something considerably more substantial: Bournemouth established themselves as one of the strongest teams outside the traditional elite.
Then Liverpool came calling. Iraola’s departure is unquestionably the biggest change Bournemouth have faced this summer. His aggressive pressing, intensity and willingness to attack opponents transformed the team, and replacing the man responsible for their greatest Premier League season was never going to be straightforward.
Bournemouth have turned to Marco Rose, whose previous jobs include Borussia Mönchengladbach, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig. Rose has plenty of experience managing aggressive, high-intensity teams himself, which makes the appointment logical rather than representing a complete change in direction.
There have also been important changes to the squad. Marcos Senesi has followed Iraola out of the club, joining Tottenham, but Bournemouth have responded impressively by signing António Silva from Benfica. The 22-year-old Portugal international is one of the most exciting defensive additions made by any Premier League club this summer.
Álvaro Rodríguez has arrived to strengthen the attack, while Bournemouth retain the core of a squad containing Alex Scott, Tyler Adams, Evanilson, Justin Kluivert, Rayan, Adrien Truffert and David Brooks.
This remains a very good football team. The reason we have dropped them from sixth to eighth is not because we expect Bournemouth to decline dramatically. It is because combining a managerial transition with Europa League football is an enormous challenge.
Key transfers
In: António Silva, Álvaro Rodríguez.
Out: Marcos Senesi.
António Silva is the standout. Bournemouth needed a centre-back following Senesi’s departure, and rather than settling for a safe replacement they have brought in a player who has already represented Portugal 20 times despite being only 22. He has Champions League experience, won the Portuguese title with Benfica and possesses exactly the kind of composure in possession Bournemouth want from their defenders.
He should also fit Rose’s football. Bournemouth want defenders who are comfortable operating high up the pitch and brave enough to defend large spaces behind them. Silva has the technical ability to initiate attacks and the intelligence to step forward when Bournemouth press.
There is, however, still a question surrounding Bournemouth’s aerial defending. They won only 46.7 per cent of their aerial duels last season, while no Premier League side conceded a higher expected-goals figure from set pieces.
Silva improves the defence, but Bournemouth could still use a genuinely dominant aerial presence alongside him. Rodríguez provides competition for Evanilson in attack and gives Rose another physical option through the middle. He has not featured much during the latter stages of pre-season, however, meaning Evanilson begins the campaign as the clear first-choice striker.
Strengths
Bournemouth have reached the point where their strength is no longer based around one or two outstanding individuals. The overall squad is good.
Alex Scott is developing into one of the Premier League’s most interesting central midfielders. He can carry possession, play through pressure and operate in several midfield roles. It is no surprise that his performances have attracted attention elsewhere, with Manchester City now among the clubs being linked with him.
Tyler Adams gives Bournemouth aggression and defensive intensity alongside him, while Lewis Cook and Ryan Christie provide further experience. There is considerable variety in attack as well.
Evanilson can lead the line, Kluivert can operate centrally or from wider areas, David Brooks provides creativity and Rayan gives Bournemouth another technically gifted attacker capable of causing problems between the lines.
Adrien Truffert is another player we rate highly. His ability to attack from left-back gives Bournemouth natural width and allows the attacking players ahead of him to move into more central positions.
Perhaps most importantly, the club’s recruitment strategy remains coherent. Bournemouth are no longer simply trying to survive in the Premier League. They are recruiting players capable of maintaining a team around the European positions. That represents enormous progress.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
The biggest concern is the combination of change and workload. Iraola was not merely Bournemouth’s manager. His identity was embedded throughout the team.
Rose has similarities in terms of intensity and pressing, but there will inevitably be tactical differences. Players need to learn new triggers, new positioning and different expectations in possession. At the same time, Bournemouth are preparing for Europa League football.
That means Thursday night matches followed by Premier League fixtures on Sundays, international breaks, domestic cups and significantly more travelling than the squad is accustomed to. Their European campaign begins in September.
Depth suddenly becomes much more important. There is also a significant early injury problem. Junior Kroupi has undergone foot surgery and faces a spell on the sidelines. His absence removes one of Bournemouth’s most exciting attacking options and places greater responsibility on Evanilson, Kluivert and the other forwards.
Set pieces remain another concern. Bournemouth conceded 18 goals from them last season, joint-second most in the Premier League. That is an extraordinary number for a team that nevertheless managed to finish sixth.
If Rose can fix that weakness without compromising the aggression that makes Bournemouth so effective elsewhere, the team could actually improve defensively.
Key player
Alex Scott
Scott now looks ready to become the central figure in this Bournemouth team. His technical ability has never been in doubt, but he has added maturity and tactical intelligence to his game. He can receive the ball under pressure, drive through midfield and connect Bournemouth’s defensive and attacking units.
That becomes particularly important under a new manager. Rose needs players capable of understanding tactical instructions while still making intelligent decisions for themselves on the pitch. Scott fits that description perfectly.
The only concern is whether Bournemouth can keep him. Manchester City are reportedly interested as the transfer deadline approaches. Losing Scott now would substantially change our assessment of Bournemouth’s season. If he stays, we expect him to be one of their most influential players.
Player to watch
António Silva
This could prove to be one of the smartest signings of the Premier League summer. Silva arrives with a level of experience unusual for a 22-year-old. He has played Champions League football, won a domestic title and represented Portugal at both World Cup and Nations League level.
The Premier League will present a different challenge. He will face more direct football, greater physical pressure and opponents specifically looking to exploit Bournemouth’s high defensive line.
But that is also what makes him so interesting. If Silva adapts quickly, Bournemouth may have signed a centre-back capable of becoming one of the league’s best young defenders.
What they still need
Another centre-back would make sense. Bournemouth have addressed Senesi’s departure with Silva, while Bafodé Diakité provides another option, but the statistics from last season suggest they could still benefit from a defender who dominates aerially.
That becomes even more important in Europe, where Rose will need to rotate his defensive unit. The club also need to keep Alex Scott. At this stage of the window, retaining one of their best players would be every bit as valuable as making another major signing.
Attacking depth is another consideration because of Kroupi’s injury. Álvaro Rodríguez provides an alternative to Evanilson, but Bournemouth will be playing considerably more football this season. One additional attacker would leave the squad looking extremely strong.
Verdict
We are not expecting Bournemouth to disappear simply because Andoni Iraola has left. The club is too well run for that. Marco Rose is a credible replacement whose football should suit much of the squad he has inherited. António Silva is an ambitious signing, the midfield remains excellent and there is enough attacking quality to trouble virtually every Premier League opponent.
Their opening match provided evidence of that. Bournemouth were beaten 2-1 by Manchester City at the Etihad, but they pushed the former champions all the way and were only denied a point by Josko Gvardiol’s stoppage-time winner.
That is hardly evidence of a team about to fall apart. Our concern is instead how Bournemouth cope when the schedule becomes relentless.
Last season they could prepare specifically for Premier League opponents. This season there will be European trips followed almost immediately by difficult domestic matches. Rose will have to rotate, manage injuries and maintain intensity across several competitions.
That will probably cost them some league points. But Bournemouth have moved beyond being a surprise package. Sixth place last season demonstrated what this squad is capable of, and we believe they have enough quality to remain firmly in the top-half conversation.
We expect some brilliant performances, a memorable first European campaign and another season that confirms Bournemouth’s remarkable progress.
They may not quite repeat last season’s sixth place, but we still think they will outperform plenty of clubs with substantially larger budgets.
Our prediction: 8th.