Our prediction: 6th
Expected finish: 4th–8th
Transfer window rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☆☆☆☆ (6/10)
Biggest question
Can Unai Emery successfully rebuild a squad that has lost several of its most important players while simultaneously competing in the Champions League?
Why we have Aston Villa in 6th
Few Premier League clubs have experienced a more complicated summer than Aston Villa. Last season was magnificent. Villa finished fourth in the Premier League and won the Europa League, beating Freiburg in the final to secure their first major European trophy since 1982. Champions League qualification followed, and everything appeared to be moving in the right direction.
Three months later, the picture looks very different. Morgan Rogers has joined Chelsea for a British-record £117m. Youri Tielemans has moved to Manchester United. Ezri Konsa has joined Arsenal, while Lucas Digne and Douglas Luiz have also departed. Jadon Sancho’s time at Villa has ended as well.
Then there are the injuries. Amadou Onana suffered an ACL injury at the World Cup and is expected to miss a substantial part of the season.Tammy Abraham, Brian Madjo and several others have also encountered fitness problems during the summer.
Villa have responded aggressively. Johan Manzambi, João Gomes, Zion Suzuki and Matteo Ruggeri have arrived permanently, while Alejandro Garnacho and Aaron Wan-Bissaka have joined on loan.
There is plenty of quality among those additions. But there is no escaping the fact that Emery is effectively rebuilding a Champions League team while the season is already underway. That is why we have Villa dropping from fourth to sixth.
Key transfers
In: Johan Manzambi, João Gomes, Zion Suzuki, Matteo Ruggeri, Alejandro Garnacho, Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
Out: Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans, Ezri Konsa, Lucas Digne, Douglas Luiz, Jadon Sancho.
Manzambi is the headline investment. Villa moved quickly to sign the Switzerland international from Freiburg after an excellent World Cup, with the midfielder becoming the club’s biggest summer purchase. He is only 20 but already possesses the physicality and technical ability to become an important Premier League midfielder.
João Gomes is another signing we like enormously. Villa needed aggression and ball-winning ability after Tielemans’ departure and Onana’s injury. Gomes provides exactly that. He already understands the Premier League and should require very little adaptation.
Garnacho is the gamble. There is no questioning his ability. He gives Villa pace, unpredictability and genuine one-against-one threat from wide areas. If Emery can produce the best version of him consistently, the loan could prove excellent business.
Suzuki and Ruggeri address two other areas of uncertainty. Ruggeri should compete with Ian Maatsen following Digne’s departure, while Suzuki’s arrival from Parma is particularly interesting because Emiliano Martínez’s future remains uncertain. The recruitment itself is not the reason we have given Villa only 6/10. The problem is the sheer amount of quality they have been forced to replace.
Strengths
Villa’s greatest strength remains their manager. Unai Emery is one of the best coaches in the Premier League.
What he achieved last season reinforced that. Villa endured a difficult beginning to the campaign but recovered spectacularly, finishing fourth while simultaneously winning the Europa League. Emery is exceptionally good at finding solutions.
His Villa side can dominate possession against weaker opposition, defend deeper against elite teams and attack quickly through transitions when matches require it. They are also extremely well drilled tactically, particularly when controlling space and exploiting opponents’ defensive weaknesses.
Villa Park is another major advantage. This is now a club accustomed to hosting huge European nights, and their home form will be crucial if they are to remain around the Champions League positions. There is still substantial individual quality as well.
Ollie Watkins remains an outstanding Premier League striker if he stays, while João Gomes, Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn, Ian Maatsen and Pau Torres provide the foundations of a very strong team. The ceiling remains extremely high.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
Squad disruption is the obvious concern. Rogers, Tielemans and Konsa were not peripheral players. They were fundamental parts of one of the best Aston Villa teams of the modern era.
Rogers provided goals, creativity and the ability to carry the ball through defensive lines. Tielemans controlled the midfield. Konsa offered reliability, pace and tactical flexibility across the defence.
Replacing all three simultaneously would challenge any club. Onana’s ACL injury makes the midfield situation even more difficult. There is also uncertainty surrounding Watkins. Emery confirmed before the opening weekend that the striker had received offers and could leave if an acceptable agreement were reached. Villa are now attempting to sign Jean-Philippe Mateta, while Al-Hilal continue to pursue Watkins.
Losing Watkins on top of everything else would fundamentally alter our assessment of this squad. And the opening weekend could hardly have gone worse. Villa were beaten 4-0 by Brighton, with João Gomes sent off. The result exposed just how stretched Emery’s squad currently is. One match should never define a season. But it demonstrated why Villa still have considerable work to do before the transfer window closes.
Key player
Ollie Watkins
Assuming he stays, Watkins becomes even more important this season. He scored 16 Premier League goals last season and remains the most reliable source of goals in the squad. His importance extends beyond finishing. Watkins stretches defences, attacks space behind centre-backs and creates room for Villa’s attacking midfielders. His movement is central to many of Emery’s attacking patterns.
With Rogers gone, Villa have already lost a major source of goals and creativity. They cannot afford to lose Watkins as well without replacing him properly. If he remains at Villa Park and produces another 15–20 league goals, Villa should remain firmly involved in the European race.
Player to watch
Johan Manzambi
Manzambi could become one of the most exciting young midfielders in the Premier League. The Swiss international arrives from Freiburg after enhancing his reputation considerably at the World Cup. Villa have invested heavily because they believe they are buying a player capable of becoming a central figure for years rather than simply replacing someone for one season.
He is powerful, mobile and comfortable carrying possession through midfield. Those qualities are particularly important following Rogers’ departure. Manzambi is not a direct replacement – he operates deeper – but Villa have lost one of their best ball carriers and need other players to assume greater responsibility for progressing possession.
The immediate problem is fitness. Manzambi’s preparation has been disrupted since arriving at Villa, so supporters may need patience before seeing his best football. Once fully fit, however, we expect him to become an important player.
What they still need
Villa need another centre-back. Konsa’s departure has created a significant hole, and Club Brugge defender Joel Ordóñez is among the players Villa are pursuing before the deadline.
They could also use another established central midfielder, particularly because Onana is unavailable long term and João Gomes will now be suspended following his opening-weekend red card.
Most importantly, the striker situation needs resolving. If Watkins stays, Villa can concentrate their remaining resources elsewhere. If he leaves, signing a proven centre-forward becomes essential. Their interest in Mateta therefore makes perfect sense, although Crystal Palace have rejected Villa’s opening offer.
There are also reports today that Villa are exploring an ambitious move for Rafael Leão, alongside interest in Rangers midfielder Nicolas Raskin. A strong final week of the window could change the entire mood around Villa Park.
Verdict
This is probably the hardest team in our top eight to assess. If we were judging Aston Villa purely on the players who have left, we would put them lower.
Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans and Ezri Konsa represent an extraordinary amount of Premier League quality to lose in one transfer window. Add Onana’s serious injury and the uncertainty surrounding Watkins and Martínez, and there are legitimate reasons for concern. The 4-0 defeat at Brighton illustrated those problems brutally. But there is one major reason we refuse to write Villa off:
Unai Emery.
He has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to reorganise teams, improve players and find tactical solutions when circumstances become difficult.
Villa have also made some excellent signings. João Gomes should thrive under Emery, Manzambi has enormous potential and Garnacho could give them the explosive attacking threat lost with Rogers.
The Champions League complicates everything. Villa will be facing elite European opposition while simultaneously trying to integrate a substantially rebuilt squad. They qualified for the competition alongside Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool, with the league-phase draw taking place on 27 August.
We therefore expect more inconsistency than last season. But we also expect Villa to improve significantly once the window closes, injured players return and Emery has time to establish his new team. Fourth may be beyond them this time. They should still be one of the strongest sides immediately behind the title and Champions League contenders.
Our prediction: 6th.