The World Cup knockout stage is already beginning to reshape the race for the trophy. Several of the tournament favourites have safely negotiated the Round of 32, but the results have created vastly different paths to the final. France, England, Brazil, Spain and Portugal are all still standing, yet not all routes are equal.
The latest Coolbet outright winner market reflects the remaining field, with France (2.95) clear favourites ahead of Argentina (5.50) and Spain (7.00). However, the bracket suggests some teams may have a considerably smoother road than others.
France Could Not Have Asked For Much More
France strengthened their status as tournament favourites with a commanding 3-0 victory over Sweden in the Round of 32. The reward is a Round of 16 meeting with surprise package Paraguay, who stunned Germany on penalties after holding the four-time world champions to a 1-1 draw.
While Paraguay deserve enormous credit for one of the biggest upsets of the tournament, Didier Deschamps’ side will feel this is a far preferable assignment than facing Germany. Should France progress, a quarter-final against either Canada (251.00) or Morocco (36.00) awaits.
Looking across the entire bracket, no favourite appears to have benefited more from the early knockout results.
England’s Reward Is Home Hosts Mexico
England (11.50) avoided an early exit by overcoming DR Congo 2-1, but their route immediately becomes more demanding. Thomas Tuchel’s side must now eliminate hosts Mexico (31.00), one of the tournament’s surprise performers, in front of what is likely to be overwhelming home support.
Even if England clear that hurdle, Brazil (13.00) or Norway (41.00) will be waiting in the quarter-finals. England remain genuine contenders, but their route is considerably tougher than France’s.
Brazil Face A Dangerous Norway
Brazil progressed with a 2-1 victory over Japan, but there will be little celebration after seeing their Round of 16 opponents confirmed. Norway have quietly become one of the tournament’s most dangerous outsiders, eliminating Ivory Coast before setting up a meeting with the five-time world champions.
With Erling Braut Haaland leading the line, Ståle Solbakken’s side possess the firepower to trouble anyone. Should Brazil advance, England or Mexico are likely to await in the last eight.
Spain And Portugal Meet Too Soon
Perhaps the biggest casualty of the bracket is that one genuine title contender is guaranteed to disappear before the quarter-finals. Spain (7.00) comfortably dispatched Austria 3-0, while Portugal (14.00) edged Croatia 2-1. Their reward? Each other.
It is the standout tie of the Round of 16 and feels more like a semi-final than a match for a place in the last eight. Whoever survives will almost certainly emerge battle-hardened—but they will also have spent far more energy than rivals on the opposite side of the draw.
Belgium And USA Have A Huge Opportunity
Belgium (61.00) and the United States (36.00) both progressed through entertaining Round of 32 encounters and now face one another for a place in the quarter-finals.
With Germany and the Netherlands already eliminated from this side of the bracket, an unexpected route has opened up. Neither side will be considered among the leading favourites, but both now have a realistic opportunity to reach the final four.
Argentina Still Have Work To Do
Unlike most of the leading contenders, Argentina (5.50) have yet to begin their knockout campaign. Lionel Scaloni’s side first have to overcome Cape Verde before they can begin thinking about the Round of 16.
That uncertainty makes it difficult to compare their route directly with France’s, although the world champions remain one of the strongest teams left in the competition.
Verdict
The knockout stage has already transformed the World Cup. Germany and the Netherlands are gone, opening the door for several unexpected quarter-finalists, while France have emerged as the biggest winners from the bracket itself.
England, Brazil, Spain and Portugal all face significantly more demanding assignments, while Belgium and the United States suddenly find themselves with a genuine opportunity to make a deep run.
The Coolbet odds still make France (2.95) favourites to lift the trophy—and based on the route that now lies ahead of them, it’s difficult to argue otherwise.
Oddsfactory Verdict
Best route: France (2.95)
Toughest route: Spain (7.00) & Portugal (14.00)
Dark horse: Norway (41.00)