Our prediction: Champions
Likely finish: 1st–3rd
Transfer window so far: 5/10
Biggest question
How much of their Premier League quality will West Ham manage to retain?
Why we have West Ham 1st
West Ham have had a relatively quiet transfer window in terms of arrivals, while several notable players have left the club. Mateus Fernandes has been sold to Tottenham, Crysencio Summerville has joined Al-Hilal, while Callum Wilson, Adama Traoré and Łukasz Fabiański have also departed. There are therefore legitimate questions about the depth of the squad as things stand.
Despite that, we are putting West Ham at the top of our Championship prediction. The reason is simple: if they retain their most important players, no other team in the division can match the individual quality at the top end of this squad.
Jarrod Bowen is the biggest reason for that confidence. If he stays, West Ham will have a player capable of deciding Championship matches almost single-handedly. Players of that calibre are extremely rare at this level, and over a 46-game season that individual quality can make the difference between reaching the playoffs and winning the title.
We also believe Nuno Espírito Santo is particularly well suited to the challenge. Promotion-winning teams are not necessarily the most spectacular sides in the division; more often, they are the most consistent. Nuno knows how to construct a disciplined team that is difficult to beat, and that should give West Ham a strong foundation for a title challenge.
Strengths
West Ham should possess the highest level of individual quality in the Championship. They have players capable of producing moments that simply do not belong at this level. That matters enormously in a division where even the strongest teams inevitably encounter difficult afternoons against organised opponents.
West Ham should also be extremely dangerous from set pieces and in transition. When opponents commit numbers forward, they have the pace and quality to punish them quickly, while their physical presence gives them another route to goal when matches become more direct.
Their financial strength is another major advantage. The transfer window may have been relatively quiet so far, but West Ham have resources that very few Championship clubs can match. There is still time to address the weaknesses in the squad before the window closes.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
The squad is currently thinner than we would like for a Championship title favourite. Several important players have departed, and the attacking quality lost during the summer has not yet been fully replaced. A couple of injuries in key positions could therefore change the picture considerably.
There is also the psychological challenge that accompanies relegation. Some players will need to adjust from Premier League football to the very different demands of the Championship. The schedule is relentless, the games are often more physical and teams expected to win the league frequently encounter opponents prepared to sit deep and make matches as uncomfortable as possible.
West Ham cannot approach the division expecting superior individual quality to do all the work. They will have to embrace the grind of a 46-game campaign.
Key player
Jarrod Bowen
Bowen is the player who can turn West Ham from promotion contenders into Championship favourites. If he remains at the club and stays fit, he has every chance of being the best player in the division. He can score, create and decide matches when little else is working, and we would expect him to produce double figures for both goals and assists if he spends the entire season in the Championship.
Keeping him may ultimately prove more important than any signing West Ham make before the transfer window closes.
What they still need
A creative central midfielder would help replace some of the quality lost during the summer, while a quick and direct left winger would give the attack greater balance.
The other obvious requirement is a reliable striker. Adding someone capable of scoring 15–20 Championship goals would take considerable pressure away from Bowen and make West Ham’s attack extremely difficult to contain.
Verdict
West Ham are not the most complete team in the Championship as things stand, which is why there is still some risk attached to putting them first.
However, they possess the highest individual ceiling in the division and financial resources that should allow them to strengthen before the transfer window closes. Most importantly, retaining Bowen would give them a match-winner that none of their promotion rivals can easily replicate.
If West Ham make another couple of important additions and keep the core of the squad together, we believe they have enough quality, experience and depth to finish above Wolves and the rest of the promotion contenders.
Our prediction: Championship champions and an immediate return to the Premier League.