Our prediction: 6th
Likely finish: 4th–10th
Transfer window so far: 7/10
Biggest question
Do Southampton have the mental and physical strength to handle the demands of the Championship?
Why we have Southampton in the playoffs
Southampton enter the season with a squad that still contains plenty of quality, although there has been a significant clear-out over the summer.
Daniel Peretz, Cyle Larin and Lewis Dobbin have arrived, while Will Smallbone, Joe Aribo, Oriol Romeu, Ross Stewart and Charlie Taylor are among those to have left. There have also been several changes in the goalkeeping department.
We actually think the overhaul could prove beneficial. Southampton have had plenty of individually talented players in recent seasons, but that quality has not always translated into a balanced and effective team. The squad now looks more streamlined, with the new arrivals addressing some obvious needs.
Peretz should be a strong goalkeeper at Championship level, while Larin gives Southampton a very different option in attack. His physical presence, ability to compete with centre-backs and goalscoring instinct should be particularly useful in a division where attractive football alone is rarely enough.
Dobbin adds something else they need: pace and directness. Southampton should still be one of the Championship’s better possession teams, but they now have more ways of hurting opponents.
Strengths
Southampton should be among the best teams in the division with the ball. They have several players who are comfortable receiving possession under pressure and combining in tight areas, and they should be capable of controlling long periods of matches through possession. Against teams that sit deep, that technical quality can become a major advantage.
Larin also gives them the opportunity to vary their approach. Southampton no longer need to play their way through every phase of an attack. They can deliver earlier crosses, play more directly into the striker and compete for second balls when circumstances demand it. That variation could prove particularly valuable away from home, where Championship matches often become far more physical. There is enough quality in this squad to trouble every team in the division.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
The Championship punishes teams that take unnecessary risks, and Southampton have previously had a tendency to overcomplicate their build-up from the back.
Trying to play through an aggressive press is one thing when it works. Persisting with it when opponents have worked out how to exploit it can quickly become costly, particularly in a division packed with teams happy to turn mistakes into immediate transitions.
Central midfield also raises questions. With Romeu, Aribo and Smallbone gone, Southampton have lost a considerable number of important minutes as well as experience. We are not completely convinced that the current midfield provides enough protection for the defence when possession is lost.
That becomes particularly important over 46 matches, when technical superiority does not always translate into control.
Key player
Cyle Larin
Larin does not need to score 25 goals to make this a successful season. If he can contribute somewhere around 15 league goals while providing a reliable focal point for the attack, Southampton immediately become a much more difficult team to defend against.
His presence should also create space for the attacking players around him and give Southampton an alternative when their possession game is not working.
Player to watch
Lewis Dobbin
Dobbin brings pace, intensity and direct attacking play, all qualities that can be extremely effective in the Championship. If he establishes himself quickly, he could give Southampton the ability to stretch opponents in a way they have sometimes lacked.
What they still need
A defensive midfielder capable of protecting the back four would give the team considerably more balance. We would also like to see another robust centre-back with leadership qualities. Southampton have plenty of technical ability, but adding more physicality and defensive authority could make the difference between merely reaching the playoffs and challenging for automatic promotion.
Verdict
Southampton have enough quality to challenge for the top two, but we are not yet convinced they have the consistency, physical strength and defensive stability of the teams we have placed above them.
There will be periods when they look like one of the best sides in the Championship, particularly when they are controlling possession and their attacking players are finding space. There are also likely to be frustrating spells when their determination to play football in a particular way works against them.
Over 46 matches, we think those inconsistencies will cost them an automatic-promotion challenge, but there is still enough quality to secure a playoff place.
Our prediction is 6th place – taking the final playoff spot.