Our prediction: 9th
Likely finish: 6th–13th
Transfer window so far: 6/10
Biggest question
Do Norwich have enough defensive quality to challenge for the playoffs?
Why we have Norwich 9th
Norwich City head into the new season with plenty of attacking quality, but the squad still does not look quite complete.
Andre Brooks has arrived from Sheffield United, Bruno Alves has joined on loan and Sam Field’s move has been made permanent. At the same time, experienced players including Shane Duffy, Emiliano Marcondes and Jeffrey Schlupp have left the club.
Brooks is a signing we particularly like. He is technical, energetic and direct, and has the qualities to contribute both goals and assists over the course of the season. Field should provide greater balance in central midfield, but we still think Norwich lack the defensive security that separates the Championship’s genuine promotion contenders from the chasing pack.
Going forward, Norwich should create plenty of chances and win a lot of matches, particularly at Carrow Road. The problem is what happens when games become more physical or when opponents press them aggressively.
There is enough talent here to challenge for the playoffs, but there are also enough weaknesses to make ninth feel like the more realistic prediction.
Strengths
Norwich have an attacking style that should produce plenty of opportunities. They possess technically gifted players, combine well in possession and can dominate matches when allowed to establish control of the ball.
Carrow Road should also remain a significant advantage. Norwich are capable of building momentum at home, and their supporters can make a difference when matches become difficult.
The club also have a clear footballing philosophy and a strong record of developing younger players. That gives them the potential to improve as the season progresses rather than relying entirely on the finished product they have at the beginning of the campaign.
If the attacking players click, there will be afternoons when Norwich look every inch a top-six side.
Weaknesses
Defensively, there are considerably more questions. The departure of Shane Duffy removes experience and leadership from the back line, and Norwich still appear to lack a natural defensive leader capable of organising those around him when the pressure increases.
There is also a concern that they can be physically vulnerable. The Championship is frequently decided by duels, set pieces and second balls rather than attractive possession football, and Norwich may struggle against opponents who deliberately turn matches into physical contests.
That vulnerability could be particularly costly away from home and may ultimately prevent them from collecting points consistently enough to finish inside the top six.
AdvertisementKey player
Borja Sainz
If Norwich are going to challenge seriously for the playoffs, they need Sainz to continue producing goals and assists. He possesses the individual quality to decide tight matches and gives Norwich something every promotion contender needs: a player capable of creating a decisive moment when the team as a whole is struggling.
Player to watch
Andre Brooks
Brooks could prove to be one of the smarter signings of the summer.
He has pace, technical ability and significant potential, and Norwich could provide exactly the environment he needs to take another step forward. If he establishes himself quickly, he could become an important part of their attack.
What they still need
An experienced centre-back should be high on the list of priorities before the transfer window closes.
Norwich also need greater defensive stability generally, while some additional attacking depth would give them more options across a long Championship campaign.
Address those areas successfully and the gap between Norwich and the playoff places becomes considerably smaller.
Verdict
Norwich should play plenty of good football this season and we expect them to beat several of the division’s strongest teams along the way.
The problem is consistency. We can easily imagine Norwich looking like a genuine top-six team one week before dropping points against supposedly weaker opposition the next, particularly when opponents expose their defensive and physical vulnerabilities.
There is certainly enough quality here to challenge for the playoffs, but we believe the defensive instability will ultimately cost them too many points.
Our prediction is 9th place – just outside the playoff battle, but with a strong enough foundation to finish higher if the defensive issues are addressed.