Our prediction: 5th
Likely finish: 2nd–7th
Transfer window so far: 5/10
Biggest question
Have Burnley lost too much quality to challenge for automatic promotion?
Why only fifth?
Burnley still have a squad packed with Championship quality, but the summer has come at a significant cost. Maxime Estève has been sold to RB Leipzig, Loum Tchaouna has joined Coventry, Jaidon Anthony has moved to Brentford, Lesley Ugochukwu has left for Galatasaray and Martin Dúbravka has joined Tottenham. Quilindschy Hartman has also gone out on loan.
Florentino has arrived from Benfica alongside youngster Lluc Castell, and the former could prove to be one of the outstanding Championship signings of the summer.
Florentino is intelligent, excellent at regaining possession and capable of providing the defensive foundation around which Burnley can build their midfield. His ability to read danger and recover the ball should be particularly valuable for a side likely to spend long periods dominating possession.
The problem is that Burnley have lost quality across several areas of the pitch, and we are not convinced one outstanding signing is enough to compensate for all those departures.
AdvertisementThe loss of Estève
Of all the players to leave Turf Moor this summer, Maxime Estève could prove the most difficult to replace.
His pace allowed Burnley to defend large spaces behind a high defensive line, while his composure gave them security when building from the back.
Those qualities are particularly valuable for a team expected to dominate the ball in the Championship. Burnley will frequently push players forward and leave their centre-backs exposed to counter-attacks, which makes recovery pace at the back extremely important. Replacing Estève should therefore be one of the club’s priorities before the transfer window closes.
Strengths
Despite the departures, Burnley still possess one of the most talented squads in the Championship. There is Premier League experience throughout the group, alongside players who understand what is required during a promotion campaign. Turf Moor should also remain one of the division’s strongest home advantages, and we expect Burnley to collect plenty of points there.
Florentino could become the glue holding the midfield together. His defensive awareness should make Burnley much harder to play through while allowing the more attacking players around him greater freedom.
If the attacking combinations click, there is still enough individual quality here to beat any team in the division.
Weaknesses
Continuity is the obvious concern. Losing so many important players during one summer inevitably changes the dynamics of a team. Burnley have lost pace, experience and depth, and establishing new partnerships could take time.
That could prove costly during the opening months of the season, particularly when the margins between the leading Championship sides are likely to be small.
The squad also needs a clearer structure around the coaching team if Burnley are to maintain the consistency required across 46 league matches. Their best XI should remain extremely competitive, but the question is whether they can reproduce that level week after week.
Key player
Florentino
He has the potential to become one of the Championship’s best defensive midfielders. If Burnley successfully build the midfield around his strengths, he can provide the balance that allows the rest of the side to play with greater freedom. His ability to break up attacks should also become increasingly important against opponents looking to hurt Burnley on the counter.
What they still need
A quick centre-back should be high on the priority list following Estève’s departure, while Burnley also need a first-choice goalkeeper after losing Dúbravka.
Adding another attacking player capable of reaching double figures for goals and assists would give them considerably more firepower and reduce the impact of the attacking players who have departed.
Verdict
Burnley still have enough quality to challenge towards the very top of the Championship, and we would not be surprised to see them spend significant periods of the season around the automatic-promotion positions.
However, we think the scale of the summer departures will make them slightly less consistent than some expect. Their ceiling remains extremely high, but rebuilding relationships across several areas of the team could cost them important points. That leaves Burnley in the playoffs rather than the automatic-promotion places.
Our prediction is 5th place.