Our prediction: 4th
Likely finish: 3rd–8th
Transfer window so far: 8/10
Biggest question
Do Birmingham have what it takes to handle the pressure that comes with being one of the promotion favourites?
Why we have Birmingham 4th
Birmingham City enter the season with enormous expectations. After an impressive campaign last year and significant investment in the squad, this is no longer a team capable of sneaking up on opponents. Everyone expects Birmingham to challenge towards the top of the Championship.
What we particularly like is that there appears to be a clear plan behind the recruitment. Birmingham are not simply collecting players because of their reputation or market value. The squad is being constructed with specific roles in mind, and the summer business so far appears to have addressed several important areas.
Jhon Solís brings power, intensity and ball-winning ability to central midfield. Dael Fry is an experienced Championship centre-back who should provide reliability and composure, while James Beadle is one of England’s most exciting young goalkeepers and could become an important part of the team if he lives up to expectations.
There have been significant departures as well. Kyogo Furuhashi, Kai Wagner and Jonathan Panzo have left, meaning Chris Davies still has some work to do in finding the right balance.
Even so, we believe Birmingham have emerged from the window with a stronger squad overall.
Strengths
Squad depth could be one of Birmingham’s biggest advantages.
They have assembled one of the deeper groups in the Championship, something that becomes increasingly important once injuries, suspensions and the relentless fixture schedule begin to take their toll during the autumn and winter.
Davies has also given the team a recognisable identity. Birmingham want to dominate matches, press aggressively and remain comfortable in possession, but they also possess enough physicality to compete when games become more direct.
That versatility matters in the Championship. There will be matches where Birmingham can impose themselves through possession and others where they simply have to win duels, defend their box and grind out three points.
St Andrew’s could become another major advantage. If Birmingham start well, the optimism surrounding the club should make it one of the most difficult away trips in the division.
AdvertisementWeaknesses
Expectations are perhaps Birmingham’s biggest challenge. They will begin the season being discussed as genuine promotion contenders, which means every poor result and every difficult spell will attract considerably more scrutiny. How the players and coaching staff respond when that pressure increases could have a major influence on the season.
There is also still a question over where the goals will come from. Birmingham have plenty of attacking quality, but we are not convinced they possess the obvious striker who can virtually guarantee 20 Championship goals. Over 46 matches, having that type of player can be the difference between automatic promotion and the playoffs.
There should be enough goals spread throughout the squad to keep Birmingham near the top, but someone emerging as a consistent match-winner would significantly increase their promotion chances.
Key player
Jhon Solís
If Solís adapts quickly to the Championship, he could develop into one of the division’s most complete midfielders. He combines physical strength and work rate with the ability to regain possession and drive the team forward with the ball. In a league where midfield battles can dictate entire matches, those qualities could make him enormously important.
Most underrated signing
Dael Fry
Fry may not be Birmingham’s most spectacular summer arrival, but he could prove to be one of the most important.
He knows the Championship extremely well and brings the type of defensive reliability that promotion-chasing teams need. Over a long season, consistency and experience at centre-back can be worth just as much as a headline attacking signing.
What they still need A proven goalscorer would complete the squad, although another wide attacker capable of reaching double figures for both goals and assists could provide a similar solution.
Adding that extra source of reliable attacking production would make Birmingham considerably more convincing candidates for the automatic-promotion places.
Verdict
Birmingham are one of the teams we are most positive about heading into the new Championship season. They have built a deep and well-balanced squad, recruitment appears to have a clear purpose and there is genuine momentum surrounding the club.
The playoffs should be a realistic minimum target. If the attacking pieces fall into place and Birmingham cope with the weight of expectation, there is enough quality here to challenge for automatic promotion.
We are stopping just short of putting them in our top three because of the questions surrounding a guaranteed goalscorer and how they will handle the pressure when results inevitably dip.
Our prediction is 4th place – a strong season and a serious opportunity to reach the Premier League through the playoffs.