Wales return to Cardiff on Thursday evening still searching for their first points of the UEFA Nations League campaign as Norway arrive at the Cardiff City Stadium.

Craig Bellamy’s side have opened their return to League A with consecutive away defeats, losing 1-0 against Portugal before falling 2-0 to Denmark on Sunday. Norway have three points after beating Denmark 3-2 and then losing 2-1 at home to Portugal.

The Dragons now begin a pair of home fixtures that could determine whether they can compete for survival in a demanding Group A4, but their first assignment brings them face to face with Erling Haaland and a Norwegian side whose progress over the last two years has been substantial.

Wales need Cardiff to change the direction of their campaign

There was always a danger that Wales’ return to League A would produce a difficult opening. Bellamy’s team earned promotion in impressive fashion in 2024, going unbeaten through a League B group containing Türkiye, Iceland and Montenegro. Moving into a section alongside Portugal, Denmark and Norway represented a considerable increase in quality.

The opening two results have illustrated the difference. Wales competed well in Lisbon and were beaten only by João Félix’s first-half goal, but Sunday’s performance in Copenhagen was considerably less encouraging.

Denmark won 2-0 and Wales struggled to produce enough attacking threat to seriously trouble their hosts. Bellamy was candid afterwards about the need for improvement. That becomes particularly important now because Wales finally have home advantage.

Their opening two fixtures both came away against elite opposition, whereas Thursday begins consecutive matches at the Cardiff City Stadium, with Denmark returning to Wales on Sunday. If the Dragons are going to establish themselves in this group, these are the nights when they need the Red Wall to make a difference. Bellamy’s task is complicated by a lengthy injury list.

Harry Wilson is a particularly significant absentee because of the creativity and goal threat he provides from midfield and set pieces. Nathan Broadhead and Karl Darlow are also unavailable, while Joe Rodon and Dylan Lawlor were ruled out before the international window.

That leaves Wales without several players who would ordinarily be serious candidates to start. Brennan Johnson therefore carries an increased attacking responsibility. His pace offers Wales their most obvious method of hurting Norway, particularly if the visitors commit numbers forward. Dan James provides another direct threat, while Bellamy must decide whether to persist with Kieffer Moore through the middle or introduce Lewis Koumas to give the attack greater mobility.

There could also be a midfield change after the Denmark defeat. Josh Sheehan is pushing for a starting position and would offer Wales additional control in possession, something they lacked for significant periods in Copenhagen.

Ethan Ampadu remains central to the structure of the side, while Neco Williams will again be important in providing width and carrying the ball forward. Wales cannot simply retreat and attempt to survive against Norway.

That approach would invite sustained pressure and eventually provide Haaland with opportunities inside the penalty area. Bellamy has repeatedly attempted to make Wales more aggressive in possession, and Thursday represents a test of whether they can maintain those principles against one of Europe’s most dangerous attacking teams.

There is at least some historical encouragement. Wales are unbeaten in their last two meetings with Norway, winning both, although those games took place in 2008 and 2011 and have little relevance to the teams that will meet in Cardiff.

Their most recent encounter produced a 4-1 Welsh victory in November 2011, with Gareth Bale, Bellamy and Sam Vokes among the scorers. Much has changed since then. The most obvious difference is the number nine now leading Norway’s attack.

Haaland gives Norway a threat Wales cannot ignore

Norway’s opening two Nations League matches have demonstrated both why they are dangerous and why they are not yet the finished article.

They began their first-ever League A campaign by beating Denmark 3-2 in Oslo, with Oscar Bobb opening the scoring before Haaland struck twice.

Sunday then brought a much tougher examination against Portugal. Norway again found the net through Haaland, but this time it was not enough as Portugal recovered to win 2-1. Ståle Solbakken’s team therefore arrive in Cardiff with three points rather than six, but their broader trajectory remains impressive.

Norway returned to the World Cup this summer and reached the quarter-finals, eventually losing 2-1 to England after recording memorable victories over Ivory Coast and Brazil during the knockout stages.

Their development is not simply about Haaland. Sander Berge has become an important presence in midfield, Oscar Bobb provides creativity and unpredictability in attacking areas, and David Møller Wolfe is available again after serving his suspension against Portugal.

Norwegian club football has also enjoyed an exceptional period, adding to the sense that the country’s player pool is deeper than it has been for many years. Yet Haaland inevitably remains the centrepiece. His goal against Portugal took him to an extraordinary 65 goals in 57 international appearances.

Those numbers make almost any tactical discussion about Norway begin with the same problem: how do you stop him? Wales cannot afford to allow Norway’s midfielders time to look up and deliver into the space behind their defence. Haaland’s movement is too powerful and too precise for the hosts to spend the evening defending their own penalty area.

Preventing the supply may be more realistic than attempting to control the striker once the ball reaches him. Norway do have selection problems of their own. Sørloth is unavailable through injury, removing the possibility of pairing two physically imposing strikers together. Ryerson is also absent, weakening Solbakken’s options on the right.

The biggest question surrounds Ødegaard. Norway’s captain suffered an ankle injury following a late challenge from Bernardo Silva in the closing stages against Portugal. He subsequently missed training, raising fears that he would be unavailable in Cardiff.

The subsequent medical news has been more encouraging. X-rays revealed no serious injury, and the pain has reduced sufficiently for Norway to retain hope that Ødegaard can feature. His availability will be decided close to the match.

It would be a significant boost. Ødegaard’s ability to operate between midfield and attack is particularly valuable against opponents defending in a compact shape. If Wales concentrate too heavily on Haaland, the Arsenal midfielder is capable of exploiting the spaces that creates elsewhere.

If Ødegaard cannot start, Bobb becomes even more important creatively. The Fulham winger surprisingly began the Portugal defeat on the bench but should be strongly considered for a return to the starting XI after scoring against Denmark. Norway therefore still possess several ways of hurting Wales even with Sørloth unavailable. And unlike the Dragons, they already have points on the board.

Verdict

Wales have faced an unforgiving introduction to League A and deserve some allowance for beginning with away fixtures against Portugal and Denmark.

Thursday is different. Back in Cardiff, Bellamy will expect a more assertive performance and Wales should benefit from an atmosphere capable of making this a difficult night for Norway.

The problem is the opposition’s attacking quality. Wales are missing several important players and have yet to score in this Nations League campaign. Norway, meanwhile, have found the net five times in two matches, with Haaland already contributing three of those goals.

Ødegaard’s fitness could affect how much control Norway have in possession, but even without their captain at full capacity, Solbakken can call upon Haaland, Bobb and a strong midfield.

Wales should be more competitive than they were in Copenhagen, but containing Haaland for an entire evening while simultaneously finding their own attacking breakthrough looks a demanding assignment. Norway have enough quality to make it two wins from three.

Tip: Norway to win