Vitality and Falcons have both started ESL Pro League Season 24 with two victories, leaving them one series away from securing a place in the playoffs. The last meeting between the teams went all the way to a deciding map, and another close series looks likely in Katowice.

Vitality were tested by NAVI

Vitality opened the tournament with a comfortable 2–0 victory against 1win. They controlled both maps and avoided the slow start that has caused them problems at previous events.

Their second match was more difficult. NAVI punished Vitality on Nuke and won the map 13–5, but apEX’s team responded and eventually completed a 2–1 victory.

ZywOo remains the player Falcons must stop. He can take control of a map with the AWP, while ropz and flameZ give Vitality enough firepower to recover when their star player has a quieter game.

Vitality are still difficult to beat across a full best-of-three series because they have several reliable maps. However, the defeat on Nuke showed they are not playing at a level where a 2–0 victory against Falcons should be expected.

Falcons are yet to lose a map

Falcons have made the cleaner start of the two teams. They beat TYLOO 2–0 in their opening match before producing another straight-map victory against Aurora.

The first series was closer than the result suggests. TYLOO pushed Falcons on Mirage, but NiKo and TeSeS helped them recover and close the map 13–11. Falcons then looked far more comfortable on Anubis.

Aurora presented a more serious test, but Falcons still found a way to win without needing a deciding map. They now enter this match with four consecutive map victories.

The quality in this lineup is clear. NiKo and m0NESY can win rounds on their own, while Falcons have become more consistent as a team during the last few months.

Their map pool also gives them a realistic opportunity to take at least one map from Vitality. Falcons have shown strong form on Mirage and Anubis, while Vitality’s defeat against NAVI creates another possible opening in the veto.

The last meeting needed three maps

Falcons defeated Vitality 2–1 when the teams met in the quarter-finals of the IEM Cologne Major. It was one of the closest series of the tournament, with all three maps finishing 13–11.

That result showed how little currently separates the teams. Vitality had opportunities to win the series, but Falcons were better in the important late rounds and held their nerve on the deciding map.

Vitality have also enjoyed success in this matchup. They beat Falcons 3–0 in the ESL Pro League Season 22 final, although that result came under different circumstances and does not reflect the current gap between the teams.

The latest meeting is more relevant. Both sides were able to win their own map choice, and neither managed to take control of the series for long.

Over 2.5 maps offers the better value

Choosing a winner is difficult. Vitality have the stronger record across the last year and remain one of the most complete teams in the world, but Falcons have already shown they can beat them.

Falcons have also looked more convincing during the opening two rounds in Katowice. They are yet to lose a map, while Vitality needed all three against NAVI.

The winner will qualify directly for the playoffs, but the loser remains alive in the Swiss stage. That should allow both teams to play their usual game without the pressure of immediate elimination.

Over 2.5 maps is available at 1.92 and looks more attractive than backing either team to win. Both lineups have enough individual quality to take their own map pick, and the recent meeting showed how evenly matched they can be.

Verdict

Vitality deserve to be slight favourites, but this does not look like a comfortable series for them. Falcons arrive with four consecutive map victories and have already beaten Vitality in a best-of-three this year.

A 2–1 result in either direction would not be surprising. With both teams carrying strong form and having clear strengths in the map pool, the deciding map is the best option.

Tip

Over 2.5 Maps