Ukraine and Northern Ireland meet in Slovakia on Friday evening with both sides knowing victory would put them in an excellent position in UEFA Nations League Group B2.

Both have collected four points from their opening two matches. Ukraine followed a 1-0 victory over Hungary with a goalless draw against Georgia, while Northern Ireland beat Georgia 1-0 in Tbilisi before holding Hungary to a 0-0 draw in Belfast.

With Hungary and Georgia already three points behind the leading pair, Friday’s meeting at the Štadión Antona Malatinského in Trnava offers one of these teams the opportunity to take significant early control of the group.

Ukraine’s defensive improvement provides Maldera with a foundation

Andrea Maldera could hardly have asked for a more solid beginning to competitive life as Ukraine head coach. Four points from Hungary and Georgia represents a useful return, but the two clean sheets may be even more significant.

Ukraine began the campaign with an impressive 1-0 victory in Budapest before being frustrated by Georgia three days later. The latter result represented a missed opportunity to take maximum points from the opening two rounds, but another clean sheet ensured that Maldera’s side remained firmly in contention at the top of the section.

Friday presents a different challenge. Ukraine will nominally be the home side but continue to stage competitive fixtures outside the country, with Trnava providing the venue on this occasion. That removes much of the conventional home advantage and could suit a Northern Ireland team already comfortable playing away from Belfast.

Maldera nevertheless has the greater array of individual attacking talent. Heorhii Sudakov and Viktor Tsyhankov give Ukraine players capable of unlocking a compact defence, while the experience of Andriy Yarmolenko remains available if a match requires inspiration from the bench or in the final third.

Mykola Shaparenko is also back among the available midfielders after missing out on the match squad earlier in this international period. Roman Yaremchuk is a strong candidate to lead the attack, with Danylo Sikan and young Matvii Ponomarenko providing alternatives. Yaremchuk’s 18 international goals make him the most proven scorer among Maldera’s current centre-forward options.

Ukraine’s squad has changed considerably during this window. Artem Dovbyk was already unavailable before the Nations League campaign began, while Mykolenko has now left camp after suffering an injury and will play no part against either Northern Ireland or Hungary.

Maldera has also trimmed his group for Friday’s match. Vanat, Pikhalionok, Khlan, Veletень, Drambaiev and Mykhailichenko are not included in the final 23, leaving Ukraine with a slightly different selection of options from those available earlier in the international period.

There remains considerable quality in defence. Illia Zabarnyi should be central to Maldera’s plans, with Mykola Matviienko, Valerii Bondar and Taras Mykhavko among the alternatives around him.

Ukraine’s recent defensive record suggests the structure is working. They have not conceded in either Nations League fixture and have become increasingly difficult to break down. That is particularly relevant against a Northern Ireland side whose own success has been built on defensive discipline rather than a high volume of goals.

The question is whether Ukraine can do enough at the other end. Georgia succeeded in frustrating them, and Northern Ireland have shown repeatedly under O’Neill that they are comfortable spending long periods without the ball provided their defensive shape remains intact.

Ukraine may therefore require patience. An early goal would completely alter the match. The longer Northern Ireland keep them scoreless, the more Friday could begin to resemble the Georgia game.

Northern Ireland’s young side continues to mature

Northern Ireland have made an excellent start to life back in League B. Promotion from League C represented another important step in the development of O’Neill’s young squad, but facing Georgia, Hungary and Ukraine promised a substantially more demanding test.

So far, they have passed it. The opening 1-0 victory in Tbilisi was secured in dramatic fashion through Shea Charles’s stoppage-time winner, giving Northern Ireland three valuable away points at the first opportunity.

Monday’s home game against Hungary then demonstrated another side of their development. There were no goals, but Northern Ireland produced a mature performance against the group’s top seeds and arguably created the better opportunities.

Patrick Kelly came particularly close with an audacious chip that required an excellent save, while Isaac Price was repeatedly involved in promising attacking moments.

At the other end, Pierce Charles made an important late stop to preserve the clean sheet. Four points and no goals conceded represents an outstanding start.

It is particularly encouraging given the age profile of O’Neill’s squad. Northern Ireland’s original group for this international period had an average age of only 24, with 17 players under 25. Rather than treating that youthfulness as a reason to lower expectations, O’Neill has increasingly built the team around it.

Shea Charles is already captaining the side despite being only 22. His partnership with Ethan Galbraith gives Northern Ireland technical quality and energy in midfield, while Price has developed into one of their most important attacking players.

Jamie Donley offers movement further forward, although Northern Ireland’s goals have been spread around rather than coming from one established centre-forward.

O’Neill can also call upon Dion Charles, Callum Marshall and the vastly experienced Josh Magennis if he wants a different profile in attack.

The main problem is in defence. Ballard was injured during the victory over Georgia and subsequently returned to his club, ruling him out for the remainder of this international window.

Ruairi McConville replaced him against Hungary and performed well alongside Tom Atcheson, with Ciaron Brown and Trai Hume completing a youthful defensive unit.

They may face a more technically demanding evening in Trnava. Sudakov, Tsyhankov and Shaparenko can all operate in the spaces between midfield and defence, so Northern Ireland’s midfielders will have to remain disciplined rather than allowing Ukraine’s creators to isolate the back line.

The visitors should not arrive simply looking for a draw, though. They have already won away in Georgia and demonstrated against Hungary that they can create opportunities against strong League B opposition.

There is also useful historical encouragement. Northern Ireland’s only victory in six previous meetings with Ukraine came on one of the greatest nights of O’Neill’s first spell as manager: the famous 2-0 win in Lyon at Euro 2016. The teams have met only once since then, when Ukraine won a friendly 1-0 in 2021. A decade after Lyon, Northern Ireland again have an opportunity to upset Ukraine in a competitive international.

Verdict

Everything points towards another tight contest. Neither team has conceded a goal in this Nations League campaign, while both have already demonstrated that they are comfortable winning matches without dominating them.

Ukraine possess the greater individual attacking quality, particularly through Sudakov and Tsyhankov, but playing in Slovakia reduces the home advantage they would ordinarily expect.

Northern Ireland should also arrive with considerable confidence. Four points from trips to Georgia and a home meeting with Hungary is an excellent return, and the performances have suggested that O’Neill’s young team are increasingly comfortable at League B level.

Ballard’s absence is significant, however, and Ukraine should provide the sternest examination yet for the reshaped Northern Irish defence. This could remain level for a long time, but Ukraine’s additional creativity in the final third may eventually make the difference.

Tip: Ukraine to win