Ukraine and Hungary meet again less than two weeks after Ukraine won 1–0 in Budapest. Neither team has offered much going forward during the opening rounds, making another tight match likely in Trnava.

Ukraine need a response

Ukraine started their Nations League campaign with a disciplined performance in Hungary. They protected an early lead and limited the hosts to very few clear chances.

A goalless draw against Georgia followed, but their unbeaten start ended with a disappointing 3–0 defeat against Northern Ireland. Ukraine had more possession but struggled to create chances and were punished for a poor defensive performance.

That result leaves Andrea Maldera’s team under pressure to respond. They should control more of the ball against Hungary, although their recent attacking performances make them difficult to trust at short odds.

Artem Dovbyk remains unavailable, leaving Ukraine without their strongest centre-forward. Roman Yaremchuk provides experience, but the team have scored only once across their opening three Nations League matches.

The game is also being played in Slovakia rather than Ukraine, reducing the advantage that usually comes with playing at home.

Hungary have struggled to score

Hungary’s main problem has also been in attack. They failed to score against Ukraine and Northern Ireland before finally ending their wait with a 1–0 victory over Georgia.

That win was important, but it did little to suggest Hungary are suddenly going to become an attacking team. Marco Rossi is likely to use the same careful approach in Trnava, keeping players behind the ball and looking for opportunities on the counterattack.

Dominik Szoboszlai remains their most dangerous player. His passing and shooting from distance can create something from very little, while Milos Kerkez gives Hungary another attacking option from the left.

However, Hungary have produced few clear chances during the competition. Their three Nations League matches have contained only two goals in total, with every game finishing under 2.5 goals.

The first meeting was decided by one goal

Ukraine’s victory in Budapest was a close match with very little separating the teams. Hungary struggled to break through Ukraine’s defensive shape, while the visitors were happy to protect their lead after going ahead.

A similar match would not be surprising. Ukraine may take more control this time, but their defeat against Northern Ireland will probably make them more careful.

Hungary also have little reason to take unnecessary risks. A point away from home would keep them in the fight for the top places, while another defeat against Ukraine would leave them in a difficult position.

Five of the six matches played by these teams in the group have finished with fewer than three goals. Ukraine’s 3–0 defeat against Northern Ireland is the only exception.

Both sides have scored just twice between them across those six games. That lack of attacking production makes the goals market more attractive than choosing a winner.

Verdict

Ukraine deserve to be favourites after winning the first meeting, but their recent defeat and lack of goals make them difficult to back.

Hungary should defend in numbers and try to keep the game tight for as long as possible. They have not conceded more than once in any of their three Nations League matches and have scored only once themselves.

Another narrow Ukraine victory is possible, but a goalless draw or a 1–1 result would not be surprising either. With both teams struggling in front of goal, under 2.5 goals looks like the strongest option.

Tip

Under 2.5 Goals