Switzerland can take a significant step towards an immediate return to Nations League A when they welcome Slovenia to Lucerne on Saturday evening.

Murat Yakin’s side have made a perfect start to Group B1, beating North Macedonia and Scotland by identical 3-0 scorelines despite the absence of two of their most experienced players. Slovenia are their closest challengers on four points after following a goalless draw with Scotland by beating North Macedonia 2-0.

Something therefore has to give at the Swissporarena, where victory for the hosts would establish a five-point advantage over Slovenia at the halfway stage of the group.

Switzerland’s new-look attack is flourishing without its biggest names

Losing Xhaka and Embolo for this international period appeared capable of significantly weakening Switzerland. So far, there has been little evidence of it. Six goals scored, none conceded and maximum points represents an almost perfect beginning to their attempt to return to League A at the first opportunity.

Their opening 3-0 victory over North Macedonia was followed by another success by the same scoreline at Hampden Park on Tuesday.

There was an important caveat to the latter result. Scotland were reduced to 10 men after only 11 minutes when Hendry brought down Dan Ndoye, leaving Switzerland with a numerical advantage for almost the entire contest.

Rodriguez immediately punished Scotland from the resulting free kick, before Elvedi doubled the advantage after half time and Amdouni completed the scoring late on.

Switzerland nevertheless did exactly what a strong team should do against 10 men. They dominated possession, prevented Scotland from creating anything meaningful and eventually turned their superiority into a comfortable scoreline.

Yakin will be particularly encouraged by where the goals have come from. Amdouni has scored three times in two Nations League matches and is taking full advantage of Embolo’s absence. The striker has long threatened to become a more important figure for Switzerland, but the current international period has provided an opportunity to make the position his own.

Saturday offers a more conventional examination. Slovenia are unlikely to give Switzerland the space created by Scotland’s early dismissal, and Yakin’s side may instead have to break down a compact defensive structure containing one of Europe’s leading goalkeepers in Jan Oblak.

Ndoye could be crucial. The winger supplied two assists at Hampden and his direct running was instrumental in the red card that changed the game. His pace gives Switzerland an attacking dimension that is particularly useful when opponents sit deep.

Johan Manzambi is another whose importance continues to grow. The young midfielder recovered from the knee problem that prematurely ended his World Cup and has started both Nations League fixtures. His ability to carry possession through midfield has helped Switzerland compensate for the enormous absence of Xhaka.

Remo Freuler and Djibril Sow offer experience around him, while Manuel Akanji and Elvedi provide a defensive foundation that has yet to be breached in this campaign. Yakin must decide how much to rotate.

Saturday will be Switzerland’s third match in eight days, with North Macedonia still to visit Lucerne on Tuesday. The unusual four-game international window inevitably places demands on players who are accustomed to playing twice a week for their clubs.

Yet this is surely the fixture to prioritise. Victory would move Switzerland five points clear of Slovenia and guarantee that they remain at least six ahead of one of Scotland or North Macedonia with half of their campaign completed.

After collecting only two points and suffering relegation from League A in the previous Nations League, the response has been emphatic. Switzerland look determined to make their stay in the second tier a short one.

Slovenia’s defensive progress faces its biggest examination

Boštjan Cesar has made Slovenia more difficult to beat. That may sound like a modest achievement, but it was exactly what the national team required after a disappointing period encompassing their previous Nations League campaign and World Cup qualifying.

The early evidence is encouraging. Slovenia held Scotland to a 0-0 draw in Cesar’s first competitive game before beating North Macedonia 2-0 on Tuesday. They have therefore collected four points without conceding.

Lovrić broke the deadlock shortly after half time against North Macedonia, before Matko scored his first senior international goal to secure the victory.

The result was important for more than simply the points. Slovenia are attempting to establish a new attacking identity without Šeško, and replacing their outstanding forward was always going to require contributions from elsewhere.

The Manchester United striker is again unavailable because of the persistent shin problem that ruled him out of this international period.

His absence changes Slovenia substantially. Šeško gives them pace, power and the ability to turn defensive situations into attacks almost single-handedly. Without him, Cesar needs a more collective approach. Vipotnik is expected to lead the line in Lucerne.

The Swansea forward offers a more traditional central presence and has international goals behind him, but asking him to replicate everything Šeško provides would be unrealistic. That places greater creative responsibility on the midfield.

Lovrić has already responded with his goal against North Macedonia, while Timi Max Elšnik and Adam Gnezda Čerin provide the technical quality required to retain possession when Switzerland press. Svit Sešlar and Tomi Horvat give Cesar further options if Slovenia require more attacking invention. At the other end, Oblak remains the team’s reference point.

The captain is set to collect his 87th cap and his presence behind Jaka Bijol and the rest of the Slovenian defence gives Cesar an elite goalkeeper capable of keeping his team in matches when opponents take control. He may need to be particularly influential on Saturday.

Slovenia’s four points have been deserved, but neither Scotland nor North Macedonia possess the attacking variety Switzerland can call upon. Amdouni’s movement, Ndoye’s pace and the hosts’ ability to generate attacks from both full-back positions will stretch Slovenia in ways they have not yet encountered during this campaign.

Recent history is not particularly reassuring either. Switzerland topped the countries’ World Cup qualifying group and produced a convincing 3-0 victory when Slovenia last visited Swiss soil. The broader head-to-head record also favours the hosts, with Slovenia losing four of the last six meetings.

Cesar’s team are improving, though, and Saturday should tell us much more about the extent of that progress. Four points and consecutive clean sheets have provided the foundation. Now comes the stress test.

Verdict

Slovenia’s unbeaten start deserves respect. Cesar has quickly made them more organised, and back-to-back clean sheets suggest that the defensive improvement is genuine rather than simply a product of results.

Switzerland represent a substantial increase in difficulty. Yakin’s side have responded superbly to the absences of Xhaka and Embolo, with Amdouni emerging as the outstanding beneficiary. Six goals and two clean sheets from their opening fixtures have given them exactly the start expected from the group’s promotion favourites.

The 3-0 scoreline in Scotland was undoubtedly assisted by Hendry’s early dismissal, but Switzerland’s overall form extends well beyond that match.

Slovenia should be capable of making this more difficult than either North Macedonia or 10-man Scotland managed. Without Šeško, however, they may struggle to pose enough of a threat at the other end to prevent Switzerland gradually taking control. A third victory should leave Yakin’s team firmly in command of Group B1.

Tip: Switzerland to win