Spirit and M80 enter the final Swiss round with identical 2–2 records. The winner reaches the ESL Pro League Season 24 playoffs, while the loser is eliminated from the tournament.

Spirit are the clear favourites, but their performances in Katowice make this a more interesting match than the odds suggest.

Spirit have struggled in Katowice

Spirit arrived as the top-ranked team in the world after an excellent run of tournament results. They have not shown that level during the group stage.

Their opening victory against ShindeN required three maps before they produced another 2–1 win against PARIVISION. MOUZ then beat Spirit 2–0, leaving them one victory away from elimination.

Spirit were expected to respond against 1win, but instead suffered another 2–0 defeat. They were unable to take control of either map and now enter their final group match after losing four consecutive maps.

The quality in the team is not in question. donk remains one of the best players in the world, while sh1ro, zont1x and tN1R give Spirit far more individual quality than M80.

The concern is whether Spirit can suddenly return to their best after two poor performances.

M80 have recovered from a terrible start

M80 could hardly have started the tournament any worse. They lost 2–0 against MOUZ before suffering another clean defeat against BetBoom.

The Americans have responded well. They kept their tournament alive with a 2–1 victory over TYLOO before beating Legacy by the same scoreline.

Those victories came against weaker opposition, but M80 have now won two elimination matches in a row. They have also shown that they can recover after losing a map, which could be important against a Spirit team struggling for confidence.

M80 are unlikely to win the series through individual quality alone. Their best chance will be to make the match uncomfortable, use the map veto well and take advantage if Spirit make another slow start.

The map veto gives M80 an opportunity

Spirit should still win this match, but backing them at odds of only 1.11 offers almost no value. Their recent form makes a straightforward 2–0 victory difficult to trust.

M80 have strong results on Nuke and Ancient across the last three months. Spirit do not play Nuke, so that map should disappear early in the veto, but Ancient could remain available.

Cache could also give M80 an opportunity. They have won ten of their last fourteen matches on the map, while Spirit have a more mixed record.

Spirit have the stronger map pool overall, but M80 only need to win one map for the over 2.5 maps selection to succeed.

Spirit may need three maps

Spirit should be highly motivated after two consecutive defeats. A place in the playoffs is on the line, and another loss would be one of the biggest surprises of the tournament.

However, motivation alone does not solve the problems they have shown during the last two matches. Spirit have struggled to control games and have looked far less convincing than they did during their recent tournament victories.

M80 arrive with confidence after winning two straight series. They are still clear underdogs, but their recent results suggest they can make Spirit work for the victory.

At odds of 2.80, over 2.5 maps offers significantly more value than backing Spirit to win at 1.11.

Verdict

Spirit are the better team and should eventually win the series. Their recent defeats against MOUZ and 1win make it difficult to expect a comfortable result, however.

M80 have already survived two elimination matches and should have at least one suitable map available. Spirit may recover and reach the playoffs, but a 2–1 victory looks more realistic than another 2–0 result.

Tip

Over 2.5 Maps