Scotland have another chance to beat Slovenia after the teams played out a goalless draw in Ljubljana less than two weeks ago. The first meeting was frustrating for Scotland, but their second-half performance showed that they can cause Slovenia problems. With home advantage at Hampden Park, this looks like a good opportunity to collect another three points.

Scotland finally found their goals

Sébastien Pocognoli had to wait until his third match in charge for his first victory as Scotland manager. After failing to score against Slovenia and Switzerland, Scotland responded with a 2–0 win away to North Macedonia.

Kieron Bowie opened the scoring with his first international goal before John McGinn secured the victory from the penalty spot. Scotland also had to play the closing stages with ten men following Scott McKenna’s red card.

That result was important after a difficult start to the Nations League campaign. Scotland drew 0–0 in Slovenia before losing 3–0 against Switzerland at Hampden Park. However, the defeat against Switzerland needs some context. Jack Hendry was sent off after only eleven minutes, leaving Scotland with ten men for most of the match.

Scotland have now received red cards in consecutive games, and avoiding another unnecessary mistake will be important. If they keep eleven players on the pitch, they should be able to control more of this match.

The first meeting gives Scotland confidence

The reverse fixture ended without a goal, but Scotland were the stronger side after half-time. They controlled possession, pushed Slovenia deeper and created several opportunities to win the match.

Finishing was the main problem. Oli McBurnie and Bowie both had chances, while Jan Oblak produced some important saves for Slovenia. Scotland could not find the final touch, but the performance showed that Slovenia can be opened up.

Playing at Hampden should allow Scotland to attack with greater confidence from the beginning. Andy Robertson and Ben Gannon-Doak can provide width, while Billy Gilmour and Lewis Ferguson give the hosts energy and control in midfield.

Slovenia remain difficult to break down

Slovenia have collected the same number of points as Scotland from their opening three group matches. They followed the draw against Scotland with a 2–0 home victory over North Macedonia before losing 2–1 away to Switzerland.

They took an early lead in Switzerland through Zan Vipotnik, but an own goal from Erik Janža changed the match before Dan Ndoye scored the winner.

Slovenia are usually well organised and have one of Europe’s best goalkeepers in Oblak. They are comfortable defending in numbers and waiting for opportunities to counterattack, which could make this another patient evening for Scotland.

The visitors will also be without Benjamin Šeško, removing their biggest attacking threat. Vipotnik is expected to lead the line instead, but Scotland should be able to limit his opportunities if they avoid giving the ball away in dangerous areas.

Slovenia’s recent away record is another concern. They have lost three of their last four matches on the road and have not won a competitive away game since October 2024.

Scotland can make home advantage count

Only goal difference separates these teams in the group, making this an important match in the battle for second place and a possible promotion play-off.

Scotland have never lost against Slovenia, recording two victories and four draws across their six previous meetings. The first match showed that there is not a huge gap between the teams, but Scotland created the better chances and should benefit from playing at Hampden.

McKenna is suspended after his red card against North Macedonia, although Hendry is available again after serving his own suspension. His return gives Pocognoli another experienced option in defence.

This is unlikely to become an open game with several goals. Slovenia will probably defend deep, and Scotland may need time to find a way through. The hosts still have enough quality to create the decisive chances, particularly if McGinn and Robertson can influence the match higher up the pitch.

Verdict

Slovenia made Scotland work hard in Ljubljana and can do the same again, but their poor away record and Šeško’s absence make them difficult to support at Hampden.

Scotland looked better after the break in the first meeting and should take confidence from their victory over North Macedonia. It may only take one goal to decide the match, but home advantage can help Scotland edge it.

Tip

Scotland to win