Sweden will attempt to strengthen their position at the top of UEFA Nations League Group B4 when they travel to Bucharest to face Romania on Monday evening.

Graham Potter’s side have collected seven points from their opening three matches and hold a two-point advantage over Bosnia-Herzegovina, while Romania remain bottom of the section after three consecutive defeats. Another loss would officially end the hosts’ hopes of winning the group and leave them facing an increasingly serious battle against relegation.

Sweden won the reverse fixture 2-1 and arrive as favourites, although their persistent problems at the back offer Romania some encouragement.

Romania must recover from a disastrous night in Warsaw

Romania’s Nations League campaign has deteriorated rapidly. There were at least some positives to take from the opening 2-1 defeat in Sweden, but a 4-2 home loss against Bosnia-Herzegovina left Gheorghe Hagi’s team under immediate pressure. Friday’s trip to Poland then produced their worst result for decades as Romania were beaten 6-0.

The context is important. Radu Drăgușin was sent off after only 22 minutes for denying a goalscoring opportunity, with Robert Lewandowski converting the resulting penalty. Playing most of the match with 10 men against a Polish side desperate for a victory was always going to be difficult, but the manner in which Romania collapsed after the interval was nevertheless alarming.

Five second-half goals turned defeat into humiliation and left Romania without a point after three matches. They have now won only once in seven games during 2026, and the possibility of dropping out of League B has become increasingly realistic.

Hagi also has a substantial defensive problem to solve on Monday. Drăgușin is suspended following his dismissal, while Virgil Ghiță will also miss the match after accumulating bookings. Losing two centre-backs simultaneously would be problematic under any circumstances; doing so immediately before facing Viktor Gyökeres makes the situation considerably more concerning.

Andrei Burcă offers experience and could return to the starting XI, while Andrei Coubiș, Bogdan Racovițan and Matei Ilie provide alternatives as Hagi attempts to rebuild his defence. There could also be a change in goal, with Ionuț Radu pushing for a recall after Otto Hindrich endured a difficult evening in Warsaw.

Romania can at least take some confidence from their recent record in Bucharest. They have won four of their last five home matches, with the 4-2 defeat against Bosnia the exception, and their performance in Sweden last month demonstrated that they are capable of troubling Monday’s opponents.

They will need a considerably more controlled performance this time. Sweden have scored in virtually every match under Potter and possess the attacking quality to punish another chaotic Romanian display.

Sweden’s attack continues to compensate for defensive vulnerability

Sweden are exactly where they wanted to be halfway through the group stage. Successive victories over Romania and Poland gave Potter’s team maximum points from their opening two fixtures, before Friday’s 1-1 draw in Bosnia maintained their unbeaten Nations League campaign.

There was some frustration in Zenica. Gyökeres put Sweden ahead shortly after the hour mark and they appeared to be heading towards a third consecutive victory before Kerim Alajbegović struck late for Bosnia.

Even so, seven points from nine represents an excellent return for a country promoted from League C after the previous Nations League campaign. Another victory in Bucharest would leave Sweden in an extremely strong position to secure a second successive promotion.

Potter’s impact has been particularly noticeable in attack. Sweden have failed to score only once in his 13 matches in charge, with that exception coming against France in the World Cup round of 32. Gyökeres has become central to that productivity and made Nations League history with his goal against Bosnia, scoring in a sixth consecutive match in the competition.

With Alexander Isak unavailable after leaving the squad because of a minor injury, even greater responsibility falls on Gyökeres. Romania’s enforced changes at centre-back provide him with an obvious opportunity to extend his remarkable scoring sequence.

Sweden have personnel problems of their own. Emil Holm remains unavailable, while Carl Starfelt suffered a thigh injury against Bosnia and will miss the trip to Bucharest. Eric Smith replaced him in Zenica and is among the candidates to start, while Victor Eriksson has been called into the squad.

Potter has also had to contend with illness within the camp, with several players unavailable against Bosnia. That could influence his selection on Monday, particularly at the end of an intensive international schedule.

The bigger concern, however, remains Sweden’s defensive record. They are yet to keep a clean sheet in 13 matches under Potter. For all their attacking progress, that is an extraordinary sequence for a team attempting to establish itself at a higher Nations League level.

Romania scored in the reverse fixture and have already found the net twice at home against Bosnia, so Sweden should not expect a comfortable evening simply because their opponents conceded six in Warsaw.

Verdict

The circumstances favour Sweden. Potter’s team are unbeaten in the group, have already defeated Romania and possess one of the most dangerous centre-forwards in international football in Gyökeres. Romania, meanwhile, must somehow reconstruct their central defence after losing both Drăgușin and Ghiță to suspension.

The hosts should produce a response to the humiliation in Poland, particularly back in Bucharest, and Sweden’s continued inability to keep clean sheets gives Romania a realistic route to goal.

However, Sweden have consistently carried an attacking threat under Potter and have scored multiple goals in four of their last five victories over Romania. Against a makeshift home defence, they should create enough opportunities to maintain their position at the top of the group.

Tip: Sweden to win