PSV looking to end their Matchday 1 curse

PSV Eindhoven begin another Champions League campaign at the Philips Stadion after establishing themselves as the dominant force in Dutch football.

Peter Bosz’s side have made an excellent start to the new Eredivisie season, collecting 13 points from their opening five matches (W4 D1). They arrive in impressive form after a 6-1 victory over Utrecht followed by a 3-1 away win against Ajax. Europe has been a different story.

PSV have lost their opening Champions League match in each of their last five campaigns, with their last Matchday 1 victory coming against Manchester United in 2015/16. They have also won only two of their last ten matches in the Champions League proper and lost four of their last five home games in the competition.

Goals are rarely far away when PSV are involved. Their last ten Champions League matches have produced 44 goals – an average of 4.4 per game.

Shakhtar are no strangers to this stage

Shakhtar Donetsk are Champions League regulars. This is their 20th appearance in the group/league phase, more than any other Ukrainian club.

They have also started their domestic campaign strongly with four wins from their opening five league matches. Their European numbers deserve respect too. Shakhtar have lost only two of their last eight UEFA group/league-phase matches (W5 D1), while each of their last six European matches has produced at least three goals. Those numbers suggest PSV could face a much tougher evening than the pre-match odds might indicate.

A dramatic first meeting

There has only been one previous competitive meeting between PSV and Shakhtar – and it was a memorable one. Shakhtar led 2-0 in Eindhoven in November 2024 through Danylo Sikan and Oleksandr Zubkov. Pedro Henrique’s red card in the 69th minute changed the game dramatically. Malik Tillman scored twice in the closing stages before Ricardo Pepi struck in the 95th minute, completing an extraordinary comeback and giving PSV a 3-2 victory.

Team news

PSV will be without Mauro Júnior through suspension, while Dennis Man, Sami Ouaissa, Alassane Pléa and Kiliann Sildillia are also unavailable. Sam Lammers is doubtful. Shakhtar are without Kiril Fesiun and Marlon Santos, while Pedrinho is considered doubtful.

Verdict

PSV deserve to be favourites. They have home advantage, have started the domestic season strongly and already know what it takes to beat Shakhtar in Eindhoven. But their recent Champions League numbers make 1.45 on the home win look far from risk-free.

Five consecutive Matchday 1 defeats and four losses in their last five Champions League home games show that PSV can be vulnerable at this level. Shakhtar’s recent European record suggests they have enough quality to make this competitive.

The strongest trend, however, could be goals. PSV’s last ten Champions League matches have produced 44, while Shakhtar’s last six European fixtures have all seen at least three.

Tip
PSV 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk

Betting angle: Goals / Both Teams to Score