Portugal begin their Nations League title defence against Wales at Estádio José Alvalade. The match also marks the beginning of a new period for the hosts, with Jorge Jesus taking charge of the national team for the first time.

A new beginning for Portugal

Portugal enter the competition as defending champions, but much has changed since they lifted the trophy. Jorge Jesus replaced Roberto Martínez following the World Cup and will make his debut in the dugout against Wales.

Jesus has retained the experienced core of the squad. Cristiano Ronaldo remains involved at 41, while Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Vitinha, João Neves, Rúben Dias and Nuno Mendes are among the other established names available.

Portugal should control possession and spend long periods in the Welsh half. Jesus normally wants his teams to play aggressively, move the ball forward quickly and commit several players to attacks. A home match against Wales gives him a good opportunity to make a positive start.

Wales return to the top level

Wales earned promotion after winning their Nations League group in 2024. Their return to League A begins with one of the most difficult away matches in the competition.

Craig Bellamy’s team also travel to Lisbon without several important players. Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead and Karl Darlow have withdrawn from the squad, while defenders Joe Rodon and Dylan Lawlor are unavailable.

Wilson is the most significant absence. His delivery from set pieces and ability to score from distance give Wales another way to threaten when they see little of the ball.

Wales are likely to defend compactly and look for Brennan Johnson on the counterattack. That approach could keep the match close during the opening stages, but maintaining the same concentration throughout the evening will be difficult.

Portugal have several ways to change the match

The hosts possess quality throughout the starting lineup, but their options from the bench could become equally important.

Portugal can call upon players such as Rafael Leão, Pedro Neto, João Félix, Gonçalo Ramos and Francisco Conceição, depending on who starts. That gives Jesus several ways to change the attack if Wales manage to frustrate his team.

Wales must defend their penalty area well and avoid conceding an early goal. If they are forced to push further forward, Portugal should find more room between the lines and behind the Welsh defence.

The visitors have enough pace to create problems on the break, but their absences leave Bellamy with fewer options if Portugal take control.

Verdict

Wales can make the opening stages uncomfortable, particularly if they remain organised and deny Portugal space around the penalty area.

The hosts should eventually have too much quality. They possess stronger individual players, greater attacking depth and home advantage. Jesus will also want to begin his time as Portugal manager with a convincing performance.

Wales may stay competitive for a period, but Portugal should create enough chances to pull away as the match develops.

Tip

Portugal -2 Asian Handicap