Few expected Paraguay to reach the last 16, and even fewer predicted they would do so at Germany’s expense. Yet after producing one of the shocks of the tournament, Gustavo Alfaro’s resilient side now face the biggest challenge of all when they take on World Cup favourites France at Lincoln Financial Field on Saturday.

Les Bleus have looked every inch the team to beat in North America. Four wins from four, a tournament-leading goal tally and a squad overflowing with attacking quality have reinforced their status as the world’s top-ranked side. However, Paraguay have already demonstrated that reputation alone counts for little once the knockout rounds begin.

The South Americans also carry extra motivation into this contest. France ended Paraguay’s finest World Cup run in 1998 thanks to Laurent Blanc’s famous Golden Goal, and nearly three decades later La Albirroja have an opportunity to rewrite a painful chapter in their football history.

Paraguay have rediscovered the identity that made them so difficult to beat

Monday’s victory over Germany was built on far more than a successful penalty shootout. Paraguay matched one of the tournament favourites physically, frustrated them tactically and never allowed the match to drift away, even when momentum swung towards the Europeans.

The celebrations that followed José Canale’s winning penalty reflected the magnitude of the achievement. Overcoming a team ranked 31 places above them in FIFA’s rankings was one of the largest ranking upsets ever recorded in a World Cup knockout match, but those inside the Paraguay camp were not entirely surprised.

Since Alfaro arrived in August 2024, Paraguay have steadily become one of South America’s most disciplined international sides. Defensive organisation has been the cornerstone of their revival, while a renewed sense of collective belief has helped them compete with nations possessing greater individual talent.

That progress has been particularly evident since their opening defeat to the United States. The 4-1 loss exposed defensive frailties and threatened to derail their tournament before it had properly begun. Instead, Paraguay responded by tightening their shape, competing with greater confidence and gradually growing into one of the most awkward opponents left in the competition.

Julio Enciso has provided moments of creativity when they have been needed most, while Miguel Almirón’s tireless running continues to stretch opposition defences. Brighton midfielder Diego Gómez also returns from suspension, giving Alfaro an important boost in midfield after missing the victory over Germany.

There are still concerns at the back, with Omar Alderete unlikely to recover in time from a knee injury, meaning José Canale should once again partner veteran captain Gustavo Gómez in central defence. Their task could hardly be more demanding.

France continue to justify their status as tournament favourites

France have reached the knockout rounds almost without appearing to leave second gear.

The 3-0 victory over Sweden in the round of 32 was another reminder of the extraordinary attacking depth available to Didier Deschamps. Kylian Mbappé scored twice, Michael Olise continued to create chances almost at will, while Ousmane Dembélé and Bradley Barcola repeatedly stretched Sweden’s defensive structure with intelligent movement.

Together they have formed arguably the most dangerous attacking unit in the tournament.

France have now scored 12 goals across four matches and remain one of only three nations with a perfect record. More impressively, they have looked capable of controlling matches in different ways, dominating possession when required or accelerating devastatingly in transition whenever space appears.

Deschamps also returned to the touchline against Sweden following the death of his mother, overseeing another composed display while extending his record as the most successful manager in World Cup history by victories.

Yet despite France’s overwhelming superiority on paper, there has been no hint of complacency. Deschamps was quick to describe Paraguay’s elimination of Germany as fully deserved rather than fortunate, recognising the tactical discipline that has carried Alfaro’s side this far.

Selection problems are minimal. Marcus Thuram remains doubtful with a calf issue, but France otherwise have a fully fit squad. Adrien Rabiot and Aurélien Tchouaméni continue to provide balance in midfield, allowing France’s attacking quartet maximum freedom to dictate games higher up the pitch.

Mbappé, meanwhile, continues his pursuit of another remarkable milestone. Already among the World Cup’s greatest goalscorers, the captain edges ever closer to Lionel Messi’s tally on the tournament’s all-time scoring list and arrives full of confidence after his brace against Sweden.

Verdict

Paraguay have already earned enormous respect through resilience, discipline and outstanding defensive organisation. Their victory over Germany was no fluke, and they possess enough structure to frustrate France for significant periods if they reproduce the same collective performance.

The difficulty is that France present a far broader range of attacking threats than Germany managed. Mbappé’s pace, Olise’s creativity and the movement of Dembélé and Barcola constantly force defenders into impossible decisions, while Les Bleus rarely need many opportunities before turning pressure into goals.

Paraguay are unlikely to make life easy for the favourites, but over 90 minutes France’s superior quality across the pitch should gradually tell.

Tip

France to win, with Les Bleus expected to pull clear during the second half and secure their place in the quarter-finals.