There will be no shortage of tension when Paraguay and Australia meet in San Francisco, with second place in Group D still up for grabs.

Both nations already know they cannot finish above the United States, but the prize for claiming the runners-up spot is significant. Paraguay must win to leapfrog Australia, while the Socceroos only need a draw to secure automatic qualification after building a healthier goal difference across their opening two fixtures. That difference in circumstance could shape the contest from the opening whistle.

Paraguay have no choice but to attack

Paraguay’s campaign looked to be slipping away after the heavy defeat to the United States, but Gustavo Alfaro’s side responded exactly as they needed against Turkey.

Matias Galarza struck inside two minutes before Los Guaranies produced a disciplined defensive display, surviving almost an entire half with ten men after Miguel Almiron’s dismissal. It was hardly spectacular, but it demonstrated the resilience that has become a hallmark of Alfaro’s team.

Now comes a different challenge. Paraguay cannot afford to settle. A draw sends Australia through, meaning they will eventually have to commit numbers forward and take greater risks than they have for much of the tournament. Whether they possess enough attacking quality without the suspended Almiron remains the biggest question.

Australia know patience is their ally

Australia’s opening victory over Turkey turned plenty of heads, even if the defeat to the United States brought expectations back down to earth.

Tony Popovic’s side defended superbly to upset Turkey before finding the hosts a much tougher proposition, yet qualification remains firmly within their own hands.

That leaves Australia in a comfortable tactical position. They can allow Paraguay to carry much of the initiative before looking to exploit the spaces that inevitably appear as the game progresses.

It is an approach that suits the Socceroos. Harry Souttar, Cameron Burgess and Alessandro Circati have formed a solid defensive unit throughout the tournament, while Australia’s pace on the counter remains a genuine weapon whenever opponents overcommit.

Team news

Paraguay are without captain Miguel Almiron after his red card against Turkey. His absence removes both experience and creativity from the right flank, increasing the responsibility on Diego Gomez and Julio Enciso to drive attacks. Gomez has recovered from the knock that forced him off last time out and is expected to start.

Australia are monitoring Mathew Leckie after a muscle problem against the United States, with Cristian Volpato ready if required. Elsewhere, Popovic is unlikely to alter the spine of the side, keeping faith with the back three and midfield pairing of Aiden O’Neill and Paul Okon-Engstler.

Verdict

This has the ingredients of a fascinating tactical battle. Paraguay are under pressure to chase the victory they require, while Australia can afford to remain organised and wait for opportunities to develop. That difference in approach could become increasingly important during the second half if the game remains level.

The Socceroos may not dominate possession, but they look better equipped to manage the occasion, and their defensive structure should provide the platform for another disciplined performance.

Tip: Australia to win.