Two ambitious sides with genuine hopes of making a deep run at World Cup 2026 meet in Arlington on Friday, where Japan and Sweden know that one strong performance could be enough to secure automatic qualification for the knockout rounds.

Japan head into the final Group F fixture unbeaten on four points, while Sweden recovered from their opening demolition of Tunisia with a bruising reality check against the Netherlands. Both remain masters of their own destiny, but neither can afford to lose focus with qualification still hanging in the balance.

Japan have found their rhythm

Japan looked dangerous against the Netherlands, but they looked complete against Tunisia. Hajime Moriyasu’s side combined relentless movement, quick passing and ruthless finishing to dismantle the North Africans 4-1, producing arguably their best World Cup performance since defeating Germany in Qatar four years ago. Ayase Ueda was at the heart of everything, scoring twice and creating another, while Daichi Kamada continued his impressive tournament by striking inside four minutes.

More importantly, Japan appear to have rediscovered the confidence that made them one of Asia’s strongest qualifiers. They have now gone nine internationals without defeat and have already shown during this cycle that they are capable of matching elite opposition, recording notable victories over Brazil and England before arriving in North America.

A draw would guarantee a place in the last 32, but Moriyasu is unlikely to ask his players to protect a point. That has rarely been Japan’s approach during this outstanding run.

Sweden searching for the right response

Sweden’s opening 5-1 victory over Tunisia briefly elevated them into the conversation as one of the tournament’s early surprises. Five days later they were reminded how unforgiving the World Cup can be.

The Netherlands punished every defensive lapse during a comprehensive victory that halted Graham Potter’s impressive start to life on the biggest stage. The defeat damaged Sweden’s hopes of topping the group, but not their chances of progressing.

The encouraging aspect for Potter is that his attacking options remain among the strongest outside the traditional favourites. Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak continue to form one of the tournament’s most dangerous strike partnerships, while Anthony Elanga made a compelling case for a starting role after making an immediate impact from the bench against the Dutch.

Potter now faces an interesting selection dilemma. Does he reward those who changed the game, or trust the side that swept Tunisia aside only a few days earlier?

Team news

Japan continue to manage several important absentees. Captain Wataru Endo remains unavailable, while Takefusa Kubo is still recovering from the knee injury suffered against the Netherlands. Shuto Machino has yet to feature after illness, leaving Moriyasu with few reasons to alter the side that comfortably defeated Tunisia.

Sweden are expected to retain Victor Lindelof at the heart of defence despite the defeat to the Netherlands. Further forward, however, Potter could freshen things up. Elanga is pushing strongly for a starting place, while Lucas Bergvall’s energy in midfield may also earn him a recall.

Verdict

This feels like one of the strongest fixtures of the final group round. Sweden have enough attacking quality to trouble any defence, but Japan currently look more balanced, more cohesive and more comfortable with the pace of tournament football.

Their movement between the lines has caused problems for both European and African opponents already, and if Ueda and Kamada continue their current form, Japan should have enough to edge another highly competitive contest.

Tip: Japan to win.