HEROIC and 1win meet for the second time in a week when they face each other in the quarter-finals of the Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier. Their first meeting went all the way to a deciding map, where 1win completed the comeback. This time, we expect another close series – but with HEROIC taking their revenge.

1win won the first battle

The teams met in the PGL Masters Bucharest qualifier on 6 September, and HEROIC made the better start. They controlled Dust2 and won 13–8, putting themselves one map away from closing the series.

1win responded on Inferno. The Russian side took the map 13–9 before completing the comeback with a narrow 13–11 victory on Mirage. There was little separating the teams across the final two maps, but 1win handled the decisive rounds better and advanced with a 2–1 victory.

That result matters before the rematch, but it also showed that HEROIC can compete with 1win across a full best-of-three. They won their own map convincingly and came within two rounds of forcing overtime on the decider.

HEROIC now have the opportunity to adjust their approach. The teams know each other’s strengths, and the recent meeting gives HEROIC clear information about what went wrong after taking the opening map.

HEROIC have responded with two victories

HEROIC did not allow the defeat against 1win to disrupt their form. They returned with a comfortable 2–0 victory over BESTIA before beating K27 2–1 in their opening match of this qualifier.

They have now won nine of their last eleven matches. That run includes victories over 3DMAX and Eternal Fire, along with several convincing 2–0 results. The only defeats during that period came against Eternal Fire and 1win.

The new HEROIC lineup has plenty of individual quality. Brollan and nilo provide firepower with the rifles, while MartinezSa gives them a reliable presence with the AWP. Chr1zN and susp complete a young lineup that is beginning to find more consistency.

Nilo has been particularly important, recording a 1.16 rating across the last three months. HEROIC will need him to have another strong performance against a 1win side containing several players with experience at the highest level.

HEROIC are ranked 25th in both the HLTV and Valve standings, placing them slightly ahead of 1win. They are not overwhelming favourites, but their recent form and the opportunity to prepare for an immediate rematch give them a realistic chance of reversing the previous result.

1win remain dangerous despite an uneven run

1win’s lineup contains some familiar names. Ax1Le, fame, nafany and ArtFr0st have all competed regularly against international opposition, while BELCHONOKK completes a roster with more experience than its ranking may suggest.

Ax1Le remains their most dangerous player. He has produced a 1.18 rating and 83.4 average damage per round over the last three months, giving 1win the individual quality to take control of maps when he finds his best level.

Their results have become less consistent, however. After beating B8 2–0, 1win suffered consecutive 0–2 defeats against FOKUS and Nemiga. They recovered by beating Ninjas in Pyjamas 2–1, but they have now been pushed through several demanding series in a short period.

The first meeting also demonstrated why 1win should not be underestimated. They remained composed after losing Dust2 and found a way back into the series through Inferno and Mirage. With players such as Ax1Le, fame and ArtFr0st, they have enough individual quality to punish HEROIC if the Swedish-Danish side loses control.

The map pool points towards another three-map series

The map statistics provide both teams with clear routes into the match. HEROIC have won 75% of their Dust2 matches over the last three months, while 1win sit at 70%. HEROIC already proved their strength on the map by beating 1win 13–8 in the previous meeting.

1win hold excellent numbers on Mirage and Inferno, winning 71% of their matches on both maps. Those were also the two maps they used to complete their comeback against HEROIC last week.

HEROIC are not weak on either map, however. They hold a 73% win rate on Mirage and a 71% record on Inferno, meaning the series could once again be decided by small margins rather than a major difference in the map pool.

The veto should give both sides an opportunity to select a map where they feel comfortable. HEROIC can return to Dust2 after winning it convincingly in the previous meeting, while 1win should have several options for their own selection.

That makes a 2–0 result in either direction difficult to support. These teams have already shown how evenly matched they are, and another deciding map appears likely.

Verdict

1win deserve respect after winning the first meeting, but the 2–1 scoreline does not tell the full story. HEROIC controlled Dust2 and were only two rounds away from taking Mirage into overtime.

Since then, HEROIC have responded with victories over BESTIA and K27. Their strong recent form, slightly higher ranking and ability to prepare directly for the rematch give them a better chance of handling the decisive moments this time.

1win should still take a map. Their experienced lineup and strong records on Inferno and Mirage make a straightforward HEROIC victory unlikely. Ax1Le is also capable of deciding a map almost alone when he finds his rhythm.

Another close series is expected, but HEROIC have enough information from the previous defeat to make the necessary adjustments and take their revenge on the deciding map.

Tip

HEROIC to win 2–1