Germany are still searching for their first Nations League victory after taking only one point from their opening two matches. Serbia have also struggled, losing both of their games, and now face a difficult trip to the Allianz Arena.

Germany need a response

Jürgen Klopp has not enjoyed the start he wanted as Germany manager. His side followed a draw against the Netherlands with a defeat to Greece, leaving them under pressure to deliver a convincing performance at home.

Germany have made several changes to the squad, but there is still plenty of quality available. They should control possession and spend long periods in Serbia’s half, with the visitors likely to defend deep and wait for chances on the counterattack.

The biggest question is whether Germany can turn their possession into goals. They struggled to create enough clear chances against Greece, but playing at home against a Serbia team that has conceded twice in both Nations League matches should give them more space to attack.

Serbia have started with two defeats

Serbia were competitive against both Greece and the Netherlands, but each match ended in a 2–1 defeat. They have shown that they can score, although their defensive problems remain a concern.

The visitors are likely to approach this match carefully. If they become too aggressive, Germany have the attacking quality to punish the space left behind. However, sitting deep for the entire match could also invite too much pressure.

Serbia will look to stay in the game for as long as possible, but keeping Germany quiet at the Allianz Arena will be difficult.

Germany should have too much quality

Germany have not played at their best so far, but this looks like a good opportunity to produce a stronger performance. They need a victory, and the pressure will be on them to attack from the beginning.

Serbia have conceded four goals across their first two matches and have returned home without a point on both occasions. Germany should create more chances than either Greece or the Netherlands managed against them.

Backing Germany simply to win offers limited value. Germany -1.5 is the more attractive option, as it requires the hosts to win by at least two goals.

There is some risk because of Germany’s recent form and the number of changes in the squad. However, Serbia’s defensive record and Germany’s need for a response make a comfortable home victory possible.

Verdict

Germany have made a disappointing start, but they should control this match and create enough opportunities to win comfortably. Serbia can make it competitive early on, but Germany’s quality should eventually make the difference.

Tip

Germany -1.5 handicap