Germany’s World Cup campaign enters the knockout phase on Monday with Julian Nagelsmann’s side facing a Paraguay team that has already shown it knows how to survive under pressure.

The Germans topped Group E despite stumbling in their final group match, while Paraguay squeezed into the last 32 as one of the best third-placed teams. With a place in the last 16 on the line, reputation alone will count for very little.

Germany looking to rediscover their rhythm

For two matches, Germany looked every inch a genuine contender. Nine goals against Curaçao and Ivory Coast showcased the attacking football Nagelsmann wants his team to play, with Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz combining superbly in the final third. Then came an unexpected setback against Ecuador.

The 2-1 defeat did little damage in terms of qualification, but it interrupted the momentum Germany had built and exposed familiar defensive vulnerabilities. Having already secured top spot, there was perhaps a slight drop in intensity, but knockout football offers no margin for error.

The encouraging news is that Germany still create chances at an impressive rate. Musiala continues to drift into dangerous pockets between the lines, Wirtz remains one of the tournament’s most inventive players and Havertz’s movement constantly stretches opposing back fours. If Germany reach the level they displayed during the opening two group matches, they will take some stopping.

Paraguay comfortable making life difficult

Paraguay will not mind if this develops into an untidy contest. Gustavo Alfaro has built a side that thrives on discipline rather than possession, and that approach was enough to earn qualification despite finishing behind both the United States and Australia in Group D.

Their 1-0 victory over Turkey demonstrated exactly how they want matches to unfold: remain compact, defend aggressively and capitalise on isolated opportunities. Even the goalless draw with Australia suited Paraguay once it became clear that a point would keep their knockout hopes alive.

Miguel Almirón returns from suspension at an ideal moment and immediately gives Paraguay greater pace on the counter-attack. His direct running could become one of the few genuine outlets against a Germany side expected to dominate the ball.

The South Americans know they are unlikely to enjoy long spells of possession, but they have frustrated technically superior teams before and will believe they can do so again.

Team news

Germany remain without Nico Schlotterbeck after his ankle injury, although Nathaniel Brown is expected to return following a muscular problem. Nagelsmann is likely to restore his strongest attacking lineup, with Musiala, Wirtz and Havertz leading the charge.

Paraguay welcome back Almirón after suspension, but Diego Gómez misses out through suspension after collecting his second booking of the tournament. Omar Alderete and Ramón Sosa will both be assessed before kick-off.

Verdict

Paraguay have the organisation to make Germany work for every opportunity, and Alfaro’s side are unlikely to open the game unnecessarily.

However, over the course of 90 minutes, Germany possess too much creativity between the lines and too many players capable of unlocking a disciplined defence. Paraguay should remain competitive for long periods, but the four-time world champions look well equipped to edge another step closer to the latter stages.

Tip: Germany to win.