Michael Olise decided the first meeting between these teams with a brilliant late goal in Brussels. Belgium now have an immediate chance for revenge, but they travel to Paris without two of their most important midfielders.

France dropped points against Italy

Zinedine Zidane won his first two matches as France manager, beating Turkey and Belgium without conceding a goal. That perfect start ended with a 1–1 draw against Italy on Friday.

Olise gave France the lead at the Stade de France, but a defensive mistake allowed Alessandro Bastoni to equalise. France controlled much of the possession and created the better chances, yet they were unable to find a winning goal.

Dayot Upamecano was also sent off late in the match and is suspended against Belgium. His absence gives Zidane another defensive decision to make after rotating his team throughout the international window.

Kylian Mbappé remains unavailable after returning to Real Madrid with an injury. France still have plenty of attacking quality through Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Marcus Thuram.

They lead Nations League Group A1 with seven points and can strengthen their position with another victory over Belgium.

Belgium responded with a convincing win

Belgium recovered from their 1–0 defeat against France by beating Turkey 3–0. Kevin De Bruyne scored twice before Romelu Lukaku completed the victory.

The result moved Mark van Bommel’s team onto six points, only one behind France. Belgium have now won two of their first three matches under their new manager.

Their performance against Turkey was a clear improvement from the first meeting with France. Belgium moved the ball more quickly and created chances throughout the match, with De Bruyne playing a central role.

That makes his absence in Paris particularly important. De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans are both suspended after collecting yellow cards during the international window.

Belgium must therefore rebuild their midfield for one of their most difficult matches in the group.

France have dominated recent meetings

France have won their last four competitive matches against Belgium. That run includes victories in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, the 2021 Nations League semi-final and both meetings during the 2024 Nations League.

They extended that record with another victory in Brussels last week. Belgium defended well for most of the match, but France continued pushing and Olise eventually found the winner in the 88th minute.

The match finished only 1–0, although France were missing Mbappé and made nine changes to their starting team. Zidane should select a stronger side for the return fixture.

Belgium will again look to Lukaku as their main attacking threat. He scored his 94th international goal against Turkey and can cause problems for a French defence missing Upamecano.

The visitors are still likely to spend long periods without the ball, especially without De Bruyne and Tielemans available to control possession in midfield.

France should take advantage of Belgium’s absences

France are priced at 1.51 to win, which looks reasonable given the circumstances.

They have home advantage, sit top of the group and have already beaten Belgium away from home. The hosts are also better equipped to handle missing players because of the depth available to Zidane.

Belgium’s victory over Turkey showed that they remain dangerous, but losing both De Bruyne and Tielemans at the same time is a major setback. Their creativity and experience will be difficult to replace against a French midfield that should control the match.

Upamecano’s suspension and Mbappé’s injury prevent this from being a completely straightforward selection. Belgium have enough attacking quality to make France work for the victory.

However, the hosts should create the greater number of chances and have enough quality on the bench to change the match if required.

Verdict

Belgium arrive with confidence after beating Turkey, but this is a much more difficult test. They lost the first meeting in Brussels and must now face France away without De Bruyne and Tielemans.

France were held by Italy, yet they remain unbeaten under Zidane and have conceded only once across his first three matches.

Another close contest is possible, but France should use their home advantage and superior squad depth to secure the victory. A 2–0 or 2–1 result looks realistic.

Tip

France to win