The early battle for control of UEFA Nations League Group C1 comes to Helsinki on Saturday afternoon, as Finland welcome leaders Albania to the Olympic Stadium.

Jacob Friis’s side have collected four points from their opening two fixtures, following a 7-0 demolition of San Marino with a goalless draw against Belarus. Albania have made a perfect start, beating Belarus 2-0 and San Marino 3-0 to establish a two-point advantage at the top.

Victory would therefore send Finland above their visitors, while another Albanian success would create a five-point gap between the two main contenders for promotion at the halfway stage of the campaign.

Finland looking for a more convincing attacking performance

Finland’s opening two Nations League matches have produced contrasting attacking performances. The Eagle-owls overwhelmed San Marino in their first game, scoring seven times and creating chances almost at will, with Joel Pohjanpalo helping himself to a hat-trick. It was exactly the sort of emphatic start Friis would have wanted after Finland’s relegation from League B.

Their second fixture proved considerably more frustrating. Belarus arrived in Helsinki with a compact defensive plan and held Finland to a 0-0 draw, with the hosts unable to reproduce the speed or variety of their attacking play from the San Marino victory. Belarus even had the ball in the net during the second half before the effort was disallowed, underlining that Finland were not entirely secure despite controlling much of the game.

That result means Saturday’s fixture has already acquired considerable importance. Finland spent the previous three Nations League campaigns in League B and will regard promotion as the primary objective this time around. Dropping another two or three points at home would leave Albania in a very strong position before the second half of the group stage, particularly with Finland travelling to Belarus for their next match on Tuesday.

Pohjanpalo remains the obvious focal point in attack. The 32-year-old has now scored 22 international goals and his hat-trick against San Marino demonstrated that he remains Finland’s most dependable finisher. Albania will provide a far more demanding examination, however, and Finland will need to create better opportunities for their striker than they managed against Belarus.

Friis has several options when deciding how to support him. Topi Keskinen offers pace and direct running, while Daniel Håkans can stretch opponents from wide positions. Leo Walta has also been given opportunities in an advanced role, and Adrian Svanbäck provides another alternative if Finland want additional movement around the centre-forward. Benjamin Källman, meanwhile, can either replace Pohjanpalo or give Friis the option of using two recognised strikers if Finland need to chase the game.

There is also enough experience in midfield to expect Finland to exercise periods of control. Glen Kamara and Kaan Kairinen have returned to the international setup, while Adam Markhiev has become an increasingly important member of the side. The challenge will be turning possession into chances against an Albanian team that has yet to concede in this Nations League campaign.

Finland may actually find more space than they did against Belarus. Albania are unlikely to spend the entire afternoon defending around their own penalty area and possess enough attacking quality to commit players forward. That should create opportunities for Keskinen and Finland’s other wide players to attack quickly following turnovers, rather than continually attempting to break down a settled defensive block.

Home advantage also gives Friis’s team reason for confidence. Finland know that defeating Albania would immediately transform the group, moving them above Saturday’s opponents and putting their promotion challenge back in their own hands. After the disappointment of the Belarus draw, a strong performance against the current leaders would be an important response.

Albania’s perfect start faces its first major examination

Albania could hardly have asked for a better opening to their campaign. Five goals, two clean sheets and six points have put Rolando Maran’s team in control of Group C1, with victories over Belarus and San Marino giving them a valuable advantage before facing their principal rivals for first place.

Their opening 2-0 success against Belarus was particularly useful because it immediately created separation between two teams expected to compete towards the top of the section. Albania then did what was required against San Marino, recording a comfortable 3-0 victory without allowing the group’s outsiders an opportunity to make the contest unnecessarily complicated.

The standard of opposition means Saturday should provide a much clearer indication of Albania’s promotion credentials. Finland may have been relegated from League B, but they spent three successive Nations League campaigns at that level and possess substantially more international experience than either of Albania’s first two opponents. Albania will also be away from home against a side that knows defeat would leave it five points behind.

Maran can nevertheless approach the fixture from a strong position. His team do not need to force the issue, because a draw would preserve their two-point advantage over Finland heading into the second half of the campaign. That could suit an Albanian side with the defensive organisation and counter-attacking quality to make life difficult for hosts expected to take greater responsibility in possession.

Berat Djimsiti and Ardian Ismajli provide considerable experience in central defence, with Mario Mitaj offering an attacking outlet from left-back. Kristjan Asllani is capable of dictating the tempo from midfield, while Albania have several players further forward who can punish Finland if the hosts lose their defensive shape.

Rey Manaj is expected to continue as the central striker after establishing himself as one of Albania’s most experienced attacking options. Myrto Uzuni and Anis Mehmeti can operate around him, while Ernest Muçi gives Maran another technically gifted player capable of finding space between midfield and defence. The combination gives Albania more attacking variety than Belarus were able to offer in Helsinki.

Luis Hasa is the notable absentee from the group in Finland. He remained in Tirana after suffering from a high fever and, although he has recovered sufficiently to resume individual training, the Helsinki fixture comes too soon. Otherwise, Maran has a healthy travelling squad from which to select his team.

Albania’s defensive record may be the most encouraging aspect of their start. Keeping clean sheets against Belarus and San Marino does not guarantee the same outcome against stronger opposition, but it continues a broader improvement in the organisation of the side. Finland will need to move the ball much more effectively than they did against Belarus if they are to disrupt that structure.

The historical record favours Finland, who have won four of the seven previous meetings and three of the last four. Those statistics carry limited relevance, however, because the countries have not met for decades and both national teams bear little resemblance to the sides involved in those earlier encounters. The current group situation provides a much more useful indication of what to expect, with Albania able to play patiently while Finland have greater incentive to pursue all three points.

Verdict

There is little between these teams after the opening two rounds, although Albania’s perfect record gives them an important tactical advantage going into the match. They can afford to remain disciplined, protect their defensive shape and look for opportunities to counter when Finland commit additional players forward.

Finland should produce more attacking threat than they managed against Belarus. Pohjanpalo remains a reliable penalty-box presence, and Friis has enough pace in the supporting positions to cause Albania problems if the hosts can move the ball quickly. However, the visitors possess a stronger defence and more counter-attacking quality than Belarus, so Finland will also have to be careful about leaving space behind them.

Albania’s five goals without reply demonstrate why they lead the group, but this is comfortably their toughest assignment of the campaign so far. Finland have home advantage and greater recent experience at League B level, while Albania would have every reason to regard a point in Helsinki as a positive result.

A competitive, relatively tight contest looks likely, with neither side needing to take excessive risks as the game develops.

Tip: Draw