Falcons and Natus Vincere enter the fourth round of ESL Pro League Season 24 with identical 2–1 records. The winner moves directly into the playoffs, while the loser will receive one final opportunity in the fifth Swiss round. Falcons are the favourites, but NAVI have already shown enough in Katowice to make this a far closer match than the odds suggest.

Falcons fell short against Vitality

Falcons made a strong start to the tournament with consecutive 2–0 victories over TYLOO and Aurora. Neither opponent managed to take a map from them, and the individual quality within the team was clear from the opening round.

Their first serious test came against Vitality. Falcons started well and won Anubis 13–9, but the match changed completely when Vitality answered with a dominant 13–4 victory on Dust2. The deciding map was much closer, although Falcons eventually lost the series 2–1.

That defeat should not be viewed as a major concern. Vitality remain one of the strongest teams in the world, and Falcons were competitive for most of the series. However, it showed that they can still lose control when an opponent applies pressure early in a map.

The arrival of karrigan gives Falcons more experience and leadership, while NiKo, m0NESY and kyousuke provide enormous individual quality. On paper, they have one of the strongest lineups in the tournament. The challenge is turning that talent into a consistent team performance across an entire best-of-three.

NAVI are beginning to find their form

NAVI also hold a 2–1 record after three rounds. They opened the tournament with a convincing 2–0 victory against G2 before losing a close series against Vitality.

They responded well by beating 9z 2–0, putting themselves one victory away from the playoffs. That result was important because NAVI have struggled for consistency over the last few months. Their best performances have often been followed by disappointing defeats, but their level in Katowice has been encouraging.

The team still relies heavily on b1t and w0nderful to deliver enough firepower, while iM and makazze must provide support when the match becomes difficult. Aleksib’s leadership can also be important against a Falcons side that contains several aggressive players.

NAVI may not have the same level of individual quality as Falcons, but they remain a structured team with plenty of experience in important matches.

The pressure will increase throughout the series

This is the first match of the tournament where both teams know that a victory confirms their place in the playoffs. The loser is not eliminated, but having to play another best-of-three in the final Swiss round is something both sides will want to avoid.

Falcons have enjoyed the better recent head-to-head record and defeated NAVI at both ESL Pro League Season 22 and the Cologne Major earlier this year. That gives them a psychological advantage, but the current NAVI lineup has looked more comfortable in Katowice than it did during some of those earlier meetings.

The map veto should give both teams opportunities. Falcons have enough depth to punish NAVI on several maps, but they looked vulnerable on Dust2 against Vitality. NAVI have already beaten G2 and 9z without dropping a map, showing that they can control a series when they start well.

A close three-map match would not be surprising. Falcons have the stronger individuals, but NAVI’s structure and experience could become decisive if the final map reaches the closing rounds.

NAVI have experience in this tournament

NAVI won ESL Pro League Season 23 earlier this year, beating Aurora in the final. Although their form since then has been mixed, they know what it takes to handle the pressure at this stage of the competition.

Falcons have spent much of the year trying to turn a collection of elite players into a reliable team. Their ceiling is extremely high, but they have not always looked comfortable when matches become chaotic.

NAVI are dangerous when expectations are lower. They can allow Falcons to take the initiative, remain patient and punish mistakes rather than trying to match their opponent’s aggressive style.

The series is still likely to be decided by small margins. Falcons deserve to be slight favourites based on their lineup and recent meetings, but the gap between the teams is not large enough to ignore NAVI.

Verdict

Falcons have more individual firepower, particularly with NiKo, m0NESY and kyousuke, but NAVI have looked solid throughout the opening rounds in Katowice.

Their victories against G2 and 9z were both completed without dropping a map, while the defeat against Vitality was competitive. If b1t and w0nderful perform at their best, NAVI have enough quality to win a close series and secure their place in the playoffs.

Tip

Natus Vincere to win