Germany have already secured first place in Group E, but Julian Nagelsmann’s side still have reasons to approach Thursday’s meeting with Ecuador seriously. A third straight victory would send them into the knockout rounds with maximum momentum, while Ecuador arrive in New Jersey knowing anything less than a win is likely to bring their World Cup campaign to an abrupt end.

On paper, the pressure sits squarely on the South Americans. Germany have the luxury of rotating without jeopardising qualification, whereas Ecuador have backed themselves into a corner after taking just one point from their opening two matches.

Germany’s attack continues to find answers

Nine goals from two matches tell one story, but Germany’s tournament has not been quite as straightforward as the scorelines suggest.

After dismantling Curacao 7-1, Die Mannschaft found themselves trailing Ivory Coast entering the final half-hour before Deniz Undav transformed the contest from the bench with two late goals. The comeback underlined the depth available to Nagelsmann as much as Germany’s character.

That strength in reserve could become increasingly valuable as the competition progresses. Undav has already produced three goals and two assists despite starting on the bench, while Jamal Musiala, Kai Havertz and Florian Wirtz have all contributed in different ways across the opening fixtures.

Germany’s only lingering concern has been at the other end. They have now conceded in both group matches and have gone eight consecutive World Cup games without keeping a clean sheet, a statistic Nagelsmann will be keen to address before the knockout rounds begin.

Ecuador running out of room for error

Few teams have looked more frustrated than Ecuador. Sebastian Beccacece’s side were inches away from taking something against Ivory Coast after striking the woodwork three times, only to concede a dramatic late winner. The response against Curacao was even more agonising. Twenty-seven attempts on goal yielded nothing as Eloy Room produced one of the great World Cup goalkeeping displays.

Those missed opportunities have left La Tri with almost no margin for error. Defensively they remain organised and difficult to break down, but the lack of cutting edge has become impossible to ignore. Ecuador have now produced a remarkable number of goalless draws over the past two years, and that inability to convert promising positions could prove fatal against one of the tournament’s most dangerous attacking sides.

Even history offers little encouragement. Germany have won both previous meetings comfortably, and Ecuador now risk leaving the competition without scoring a single goal.

Team news

Germany must cope without Nico Schlotterbeck after the defender suffered an ankle injury against Ivory Coast. Antonio Rudiger, Waldemar Anton and Malick Thiaw are all candidates to replace him, while Nagelsmann is expected to rotate elsewhere, with Oliver Baumann, David Raum, Leon Goretzka and Nadiem Amiri all pushing for starts. Undav’s impact off the bench has also strengthened his case to lead the line.

Ecuador report no fresh injury concerns. Beccacece is expected to stick with the core of the side that drew with Curacao, although Alan Franco could move back into midfield alongside Moises Caicedo and Pedro Vite. Veteran captain Enner Valencia, one goal short of 50 for his country, will once again spearhead the attack.

Verdict

Germany have not looked untouchable, but they continue to find different ways of winning. Ecuador have competed well enough to stay in games, yet their inability to turn promising performances into goals has become a recurring problem. Against opponents with Germany’s attacking depth, that weakness is difficult to overlook.

Tip: Germany to win.