Croatia return to Split under huge pressure after a disastrous start to their Nations League campaign. Spain have won all three group matches and already beat Croatia comfortably in the reverse fixture.

Croatia are coming off a historic defeat

Croatia’s campaign started with defeats against Czechia and Spain, but their 7–0 loss against England was on another level.

England controlled the game from the start and repeatedly played through Croatia’s midfield. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham caused constant problems, while Croatia struggled to create anything at the other end.

The result leaves Croatia without a point after three matches. They have scored twice and conceded thirteen goals, giving them the worst defensive record in the group.

Slaven Bilić now needs a reaction from his players, but facing Spain is hardly the ideal opportunity. Croatia lost the reverse fixture 4–1 and were unable to deal with Spain’s movement or speed in the final third.

Playing at Poljud Stadium should provide a better atmosphere than their previous home match against England, which was played under attendance restrictions. However, home advantage will not solve the defensive problems shown during the opening three rounds.

Spain have won all three matches

Spain have made a perfect start to the competition. They opened with a 3–2 victory against England at Wembley before beating Croatia 4–1 and Czechia 3–1.

Lamine Yamal scored twice in the first meeting with Croatia and was a constant threat whenever Spain attacked down the right. Croatia struggled to stop him in one-on-one situations and regularly left space behind their defensive line.

Spain have now scored ten goals in three matches. Their ability to create chances from several areas makes them difficult to defend against, even when the starting lineup changes.

Luis de la Fuente may rotate some players after a demanding international window. Spain only need one point to secure their place in the Nations League quarter-finals, so changes would not be surprising.

The depth of the squad remains a major advantage. Spain can introduce fresh players without changing their style, while Croatia have fewer reliable options after several poor performances.

Croatia have struggled against the strongest teams

The first meeting showed the current difference between these sides. Croatia recovered after conceding early and managed to equalise, but Spain quickly regained control and scored three more goals.

Croatia then conceded seven against England. That means they have allowed eleven goals across their last two matches against the leading teams in the group.

Their midfield still contains experience and technical quality, but it has looked too slow when opponents attack quickly. Spain should dominate possession and force Croatia to spend long periods defending close to their own penalty area.

Croatia may begin carefully after the defeat against England, but they cannot afford to sit back for the entire match. Another loss would leave their campaign close to finished, so they will eventually need to take risks.

That should create more space for Spain as the match develops.

Verdict

Croatia will be desperate to respond in front of their own supporters, but confidence must be extremely low after conceding eleven goals in two matches.

Spain have looked like the best team in the group and have already shown that they can break down Croatia’s defence. Rotation is a concern, but the visitors have enough depth to maintain their level.

Croatia may keep the game close during the opening stages, but Spain should take control and pull away as the match develops. Another victory by at least two goals looks realistic.

Tip

Spain -1.5 Handicap