Brazil enter Sunday’s World Cup last-16 tie carrying the weight of history as much as expectation. The five-time world champions remain one of the favourites to lift the trophy, but standing in their way is one of the few nations they have never managed to beat.

Norway’s 2-1 victory over Brazil at the 1998 World Cup remains one of the defining moments in the country’s football history, while the subsequent draw between the nations in 2006 means the Selecao are still searching for a first victory over the Scandinavians after four previous meetings.

Much has changed over the past 28 years, yet the belief generated by that remarkable record has travelled with Ståle Solbakken’s side into North America. Norway arrive full of confidence after eliminating Ivory Coast thanks to another decisive contribution from Erling Haaland, while Brazil needed a dramatic late comeback against Japan to avoid an unexpectedly early exit.

With a place in the quarter-finals awaiting the winners, this promises to be one of the knockout stage’s most intriguing tactical contests.

Brazil’s quality is unquestioned, but vulnerabilities remain

Brazil have progressed, but they have rarely looked entirely convincing. Their dramatic victory over Japan summed up much of Carlo Ancelotti’s tournament so far. For 45 minutes the Selecao struggled to impose themselves, falling behind before the Italian reacted decisively by abandoning caution and introducing an ultra-attacking shape after the interval.

The gamble paid off. Casemiro equalised with a trademark header before Gabriel Martinelli struck deep into stoppage time to rescue Brazil’s World Cup hopes.

It was an impressive demonstration of character, but it also reinforced concerns that have followed Brazil throughout the tournament. Against organised opponents capable of defending compactly and attacking quickly in transition, the Selecao have looked surprisingly vulnerable.

Norway stunned Brazil 2-1 in Marseille at the 1998 World Cup – Tore André Flo and Kjetil Rekdal completed a famous comeback that remains the Selecao’s only World Cup defeat to the Vikings.

Ancelotti now faces fresh selection questions. Raphinha has already been ruled out, Lucas Paquetá remains a major doubt after failing to emerge for the second half against Japan, while Casemiro also finished the match nursing a knock despite scoring the equaliser.

Even so, Brazil possess exceptional attacking depth. Vinícius Júnior has been among the tournament’s outstanding performers with four goals and an assist, while Matheus Cunha continues to provide movement and finishing through the middle. Martinelli and Endrick have also shown they can alter games from the bench, giving Ancelotti options few managers can match. The challenge will not be creating chances. It will be preventing Norway from exploiting the spaces left behind.

Norway know exactly how they want to hurt Brazil

Norway have embraced their identity throughout this World Cup. Rather than attempting to dominate possession against elite opponents, Solbakken has built a side that attacks directly, transitions quickly and trusts its physical presence to create problems inside the penalty area. It is an approach that has consistently produced goals, even if it has occasionally left Norway exposed at the opposite end.

Every one of their World Cup matches has seen both teams score, illustrating both the strengths and the risks of their aggressive style. Apart from a heavily rotated defeat to France after qualification had already been secured, Norway have found ways to outscore everyone they have faced.

Unsurprisingly, Haaland has been central to that success. Five goals in his first World Cup place him among the tournament’s leading scorers, but Norway’s attacking threat extends well beyond their centre-forward. Martin Ødegaard continues to dictate the tempo whenever Norway break forward, while Patrick Berg’s intelligent passing from deeper areas has repeatedly accelerated counter-attacks before opponents can recover their defensive shape.

There is also optimism that Julian Ryerson could return after missing the previous two matches with a thigh injury, although Norway are unlikely to take unnecessary risks with the Borussia Dortmund full-back unless he is fully fit.

Perhaps Norway’s greatest advantage is psychological. Unlike many teams facing Brazil in the knockout rounds, they will not arrive burdened by inferiority. Their unbeaten record against the Selecao provides tangible evidence that this fixture is one they have historically handled remarkably well. That confidence, combined with Solbakken’s tactical clarity, makes Norway a genuinely dangerous opponent.

Verdict

Brazil remain favourites because few teams possess comparable individual quality. Vinícius can decide matches on his own, Ancelotti has enviable attacking depth and the Selecao have repeatedly shown the resilience to recover from adversity during this tournament.

Yet Norway present a uniquely awkward matchup. Brazil have occasionally struggled against teams prepared to defend compactly before attacking directly into space, precisely the blueprint Solbakken has refined over the past two years. With Haaland leading the line and Ødegaard supplying the creativity behind him, Norway have both the finishing power and tactical discipline to expose those weaknesses.

Expect an open contest with chances at both ends, but if Norway can remain organised without the ball, another famous result is well within reach.

Tip

Norway to win, with both teams to score, as the Vikings extend their remarkable unbeaten record against Brazil and reach the World Cup quarter-finals for the first time.