Brazil’s quest for a sixth World Cup crown enters the knockout stage on Monday when Carlo Ancelotti’s side face one of the tournament’s most impressive performers, Japan, at NRG Stadium in Houston.

The reward for the winners is a place in the last 16 against either Norway or Ivory Coast, but neither side will need extra motivation. Brazil are chasing another title, while Japan have the chance to finally break through a barrier that has frustrated them for more than two decades.

Brazil beginning to look like contenders

Brazil have quietly gathered momentum since an underwhelming opening draw with Morocco. Rather than allowing that result to unsettle them, Ancelotti’s players responded with convincing victories over Haiti and Scotland, scoring six goals without reply and finishing top of Group C. Just as importantly, the balance between attack and defence has steadily improved as the tournament has progressed.

Vinicius Junior has been the standout performer, producing goals, assists and constant problems for defenders, while Matheus Cunha has thrived alongside him. Brazil no longer rely on moments of individual brilliance alone; there is greater structure to their play and more control in midfield than earlier in the year.

Defensively, the Selecao have also settled after a shaky start. Consecutive clean sheets have restored confidence, although memories of last autumn’s 3-2 defeat to Japan will ensure there is no complacency inside the Brazilian camp.

Japan have earned everyone’s respect

Few teams have enhanced their reputation more than Japan. Victories over Tunisia, a draw with the Netherlands and another disciplined display against Sweden confirmed that Hajime Moriyasu’s side belong among the strongest outsiders in the competition. Their technical quality has never been questioned, but this squad now combines that ability with maturity and tactical discipline.

Perhaps most encouraging has been Japan’s flexibility. They are equally comfortable dominating possession or sitting deep before breaking at speed, making them one of the more unpredictable teams left in the tournament.

There is, however, one statistic they will desperately want to erase. Japan have reached the World Cup knockout stage four times before but have never managed to progress beyond the first hurdle. This is arguably their strongest opportunity yet to change that record.

Team news

Brazil remain without Raphinha, who continues his recovery from a hamstring injury. Ancelotti is otherwise expected to stick closely to the side that comfortably defeated Scotland, with Bournemouth youngster Rayan likely to keep his place alongside Vinicius Junior and Matheus Cunha.

Japan are optimistic Ko Itakura will recover after coming off against Sweden, but Takefusa Kubo remains a major doubt because of a knee problem. Daizen Maeda should continue in attack after rewarding his manager with another goal in the final group match.

Verdict

This promises to be one of the standout ties of the last 32. Japan possess enough organisation and technical quality to frustrate Brazil for long periods, while their recent victory over the Selecao in a friendly proves they will approach this contest without any fear.

Even so, tournament football is often decided by players capable of producing decisive moments under pressure. Brazil have more of those players than almost anyone else left in the competition, and that extra quality could prove decisive in a match that is unlikely to be settled comfortably.

Tip: Brazil to win.