The top two in UEFA Nations League Group B4 meet in Zenica on Friday evening as Bosnia-Herzegovina welcome Sweden to Bilino Polje.

Sergej Barbarez’s side have collected four points from two away fixtures, following a goalless draw in Poland with an impressive 4-2 victory over Romania. Sweden have gone one better, beating Romania and Poland to take maximum points and establish a two-point lead at the top.

Graham Potter’s preparations have been severely disrupted by injuries and a late outbreak of illness, however, giving Bosnia further encouragement as they finally return home after an excellent start on the road.

Bosnia return to Zenica with growing belief

Four points from trips to Poland and Romania represents an excellent beginning for Bosnia-Herzegovina. The first of those performances was built on discipline.

Bosnia frustrated Poland in a 0-0 draw in Warsaw, restricting a team containing Robert Lewandowski and several other established European players while demonstrating the defensive resilience that has increasingly characterised Barbarez’s side.

Three days later came a very different performance. Bosnia scored four times in Bucharest to beat Romania 4-2, with Armin Gigović, Tarik Muharemović, Haris Tabaković and Ermin Mahmić all finding the net.

It was another indication of the progress made under Barbarez. Bosnia’s World Cup ultimately ended in disappointment when they were eliminated by the United States in the last 32, but simply reaching the tournament represented a significant achievement after years spent outside international football’s biggest competitions.

Their route there also demanded resilience. Bosnia survived dramatic playoff encounters with Wales and Italy, winning both on penalties, and they have now lost only twice in their last 14 matches.

That provides a very different backdrop to this Nations League campaign. Instead of attempting to rebuild confidence, Bosnia have arrived in Group B4 believing they can compete for promotion. Their schedule adds to that optimism.

The opening two fixtures were away from home, meaning three of Bosnia’s remaining four group matches will be played on home soil. Taking four points before returning to Bilino Polje has therefore given Barbarez’s team an excellent platform.

Friday is their opportunity to turn that platform into a genuine promotion challenge. Tabaković should again be central to the plan. The Salzburg striker scored in Bucharest and now has five goals from 13 international appearances, gradually establishing himself as a serious option at centre-forward.

His physical presence will test a Swedish defence that has already conceded in both of its Nations League fixtures. Bosnia also have an increasingly exciting creative talent in Esmir Bajraktarević. The PSV winger supplied two assists against Romania and provides exactly the sort of unpredictability required against a Swedish team that will expect to spend significant periods in possession.

At just 21, Bajraktarević is becoming one of the faces of Bosnia’s new generation. Barbarez has attempted to move the national team forward without immediately discarding its experienced core, and that balance has begun to produce results.

Armin Gigović offers energy and technical quality in midfield, while Amar Dedić provides another progressive outlet from deeper areas. There is also the enduring presence of Edin Džeko. The veteran striker’s international career is approaching its conclusion, but his experience remains valuable to a squad that is gradually transitioning towards a younger generation.

Bosnia’s biggest concern may be how aggressively they approach the match. A draw would keep them within two points of Sweden with three of their final four fixtures at home. Chasing the game recklessly would therefore make little sense.

But Sweden’s depleted squad presents an opportunity that may not exist when these teams meet again. At some stage, Bosnia will surely want to test just how badly Potter’s disrupted preparations have affected the group leaders.

Sweden’s perfect start tested by extraordinary selection problems

On the pitch, Sweden’s Nations League campaign could hardly have started better. Off it, the last few days have become increasingly complicated. Potter’s side opened with a 2-1 victory over Romania before beating Poland 3-1 on Monday, giving Sweden six points from six and five goals across their opening two matches.

Viktor Gyökeres scored in both. The Arsenal striker has become even more important following Isak’s withdrawal from the squad, and Friday provides another opportunity for him to underline his status as Sweden’s attacking focal point.

Isak was injured during the victory over Romania and subsequently returned to Liverpool with a minor thigh problem. He was not the only early departure. Centre-back Hjalmar Ekdal also left the camp through injury, while right-back Emil Holm became unavailable as Potter’s options began to shrink.

The situation has deteriorated dramatically since the Poland match. An illness outbreak inside the Swedish camp means Ayari, Nygren, Lagerbielke, Stroud and Wålemark have all missed the trip to Bosnia.

That is an extraordinary amount of disruption in the middle of a four-match international period. Potter has been forced to react. Beijmo, Dahl, Bolin and Sema have been summoned as emergency reinforcements, while Smith had already joined the group.

The difficulty is not simply the number of absentees. Several of the missing players would either have started in Zenica or represented obvious alternatives from the bench. Potter is now integrating replacements who were not part of his original plans only hours before an important away fixture.

That makes predicting Sweden’s shape unusually difficult. Potter has generally preferred a 4-4-2 structure with his national team, but the personnel available to him may demand adjustments.

Gyökeres is certain to carry much of the attacking responsibility. He scored against both Romania and Poland and has the physical attributes to trouble Bosnia regardless of how Sweden are structured behind him. His ability to run channels, hold off defenders and create shooting opportunities without elaborate build-up makes him particularly valuable in a difficult away game.

Sebastian Nanasi could also assume greater responsibility. He came off the bench and provided an assist against Poland and now has a much stronger case to start given the number of attacking players unavailable.

Ken Sema’s late arrival gives Potter an experienced wide option, although asking any replacement to immediately slot into a starting XI after joining the camp at such short notice would hardly be ideal preparation.

Sweden can at least draw confidence from their results under Potter. They reached the World Cup under the English coach and, despite exiting against France in the first knockout round, have subsequently responded with consecutive Nations League victories.

Their attacking record has been particularly consistent. Sweden have scored in 11 of Potter’s 12 matches in charge, with the 3-0 World Cup defeat to France the only exception. The other side of that statistic is more concerning. They are still waiting for their first clean sheet under Potter.

Romania scored in Solna. Poland did the same. Now Sweden travel to face a Bosnia team that has just scored four times away from home. For once, the responsibility on Gyökeres may extend beyond simply producing goals. Sweden might need him to outscore their opponents.

Verdict

Under normal circumstances, Sweden’s perfect start and attacking quality would make them particularly difficult to oppose. These are not normal circumstances. Potter was already without Isak, Ekdal and Holm before illness swept through the squad. Losing another five players and calling up four replacements immediately before travelling to Zenica represents a substantial disruption.

Bosnia could hardly be better placed to exploit it. Barbarez’s side have taken four points from two away games, scored four times in Romania and now return to Bilino Polje knowing that victory would take them above Sweden at the top of the group.

There should be opportunities at both ends. Sweden have scored five times but conceded in both matches, while Bosnia showed in Bucharest that they possess considerably more attacking threat than their goalless opener in Poland suggested.

Gyökeres remains capable of deciding the contest for Sweden, but the circumstances surrounding Potter’s squad tilt an already competitive fixture further towards the hosts.

Bosnia can take advantage and move to the top of Group B4.

Tip: Bosnia-Herzegovina to win