Bosnia-Herzegovina and Poland meet in Zenica on Monday evening in a potentially decisive contest in UEFA Nations League Group B4.

Sergej Barbarez’s Bosnia remain unbeaten after three matches and sit second with five points, one ahead of Poland. Sweden currently lead the section, meaning victory for either side would represent an important step towards securing a top-two finish while keeping pressure on the group leaders.

The teams played out a goalless draw in Poland on the opening matchday, but circumstances have changed significantly since then. Bosnia must now begin life without Edin Džeko, while Poland travel to Zenica without suspended captain Robert Lewandowski.

Bosnia face their first test of the post-Džeko era

Bosnia’s five-point return does not tell the full story of what has been a promising start to the Nations League campaign. They began with a disciplined 0-0 draw away to Poland before producing their best attacking performance of the group so far in a 4-2 victory in Romania. Friday’s meeting with Sweden presented another significant examination, and Bosnia again demonstrated their resilience by recovering to claim a 1-1 draw through Kerim Alajbegović’s late equaliser.

That result extended an impressive run in which Bosnia have lost only twice in their last 15 matches across all competitions. Both defeats came at the World Cup, first against Switzerland in the group stage and then against the United States in the round of 32.

Their record in Zenica also provides encouragement. Bosnia have lost only one of their last eight home fixtures, although three successive home matches have finished level after 90 minutes. That combination of resilience and a tendency towards tight contests could become particularly relevant against a Polish team that would move above them with victory.

The major storyline, however, is the absence of Džeko. The country’s record goalscorer and long-time captain made his final international appearance against Sweden, bringing an extraordinary international career to an end. Replacing his goals will be difficult enough, but Bosnia must also compensate for the leadership and focal point he has provided for so many years.

Haris Tabaković is the obvious candidate to lead the attack. The 32-year-old has already contributed during this Nations League campaign and should now assume considerably greater responsibility. Alajbegović also strengthened his case for another start with his equaliser against Sweden, while Sead Kolašinac remains one of the senior figures in a team gradually transitioning towards a younger generation.

Barbarez does not necessarily need Bosnia to become more expansive without Džeko. Their strongest performances have generally been built around organisation, patience and taking advantage of decisive moments. With a one-point advantage over Poland, there is little incentive to turn Monday’s match into an unnecessarily open contest.

Poland must prove they can deliver without Lewandowski

Poland arrive in Zenica having finally produced the emphatic result their campaign needed. After drawing 0-0 with Bosnia and losing 3-1 against Sweden, Jan Urban’s side demolished Romania 6-0 on Friday. Radu Drăgușin’s early dismissal undoubtedly changed the contest, but Poland took full advantage, with Lewandowski scoring a hat-trick as five second-half goals transformed the victory into a rout.

It was Poland’s biggest win since beating San Marino 7-1 in 2021 and ended a five-match winless sequence across competitive football. Coming after the disappointment of missing the World Cup, the result also provided a much-needed reminder of the attacking quality still available to Urban.

Unfortunately for Poland, the man at the centre of Friday’s victory will not be available in Zenica. Lewandowski is suspended after accumulating bookings, depriving Poland of their captain and by far their most prolific goalscorer immediately after his three-goal performance against Romania. At 38, his international career may be approaching its conclusion, but his influence remains enormous, and Poland have repeatedly found it difficult to reproduce the same attacking threat without him.

Urban must therefore find a different solution in the final third. Mateusz Żukowski is among the options to come into the side, but replacing Lewandowski is more complicated than simply changing the centre-forward. Poland’s attacking structure frequently revolves around his movement, ability to occupy central defenders and capacity to convert relatively limited opportunities.

There is greater stability further back. Jan Bednarek and Jakub Kiwior can continue at the heart of the defence, while Matty Cash and Przemysław Frankowski provide experience and attacking potential from the wider defensive positions.

Poland can also take considerable encouragement from their record against Monday’s opponents. They are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Bosnia, winning four, and have never lost a competitive match against the Dragons.

Their away form presents a less convincing picture. Poland have won only two of their last eight matches on the road, with those victories coming against Malta and Lithuania. A trip to Zenica represents a significantly more difficult assignment, particularly without Lewandowski.

Verdict

There is very little separating these teams, as their goalless draw on the opening matchday demonstrated. Bosnia have been the more consistent side during the group and possess a strong recent home record, but Džeko’s retirement leaves Barbarez with an immediate attacking problem. Poland arrive after scoring six against Romania, yet Lewandowski’s suspension removes the player responsible for half of those goals and fundamentally changes their attacking threat.

The group situation may also encourage a degree of caution. Bosnia know that avoiding defeat preserves their advantage over Poland, while the visitors cannot afford to leave Zenica empty-handed with only two fixtures remaining after Monday.

Neither side looks significantly stronger than the other under the circumstances, and another tight contest appears the most likely outcome.

Tip: Draw