Besiktas will attempt to build on an impressive Istanbul derby victory when they welcome Erzurumspor to Tupras Stadyumu on Friday evening.

Vincenzo Italiano’s side have collected nine points from their first four Super Lig fixtures and sit second in the table, while newly-promoted Erzurumspor have steadied themselves after a difficult opening to the campaign.

Analysis

Besiktas

Three victories from four league games represent a promising start to the Italiano era, but last weekend’s result provided the clearest indication yet that Besiktas could be serious contenders this season.

The Black Eagles fell behind against Fenerbahce but responded through Ridvan Yilmaz before Dusan Vlahovic completed the turnaround in a 2-1 victory. Winning away to one of their principal Istanbul rivals should provide a significant confidence boost heading into a much more favourable assignment on Friday.

Vlahovic has certainly wasted little time making his presence felt. The Serbian has scored four times across his last two league matches, following his hat-trick in the 6-2 victory over Corum with the decisive goal against Fenerbahce.

Besiktas have consequently scored eight times across their last two Super Lig outings, suggesting that Italiano’s attacking ideas are beginning to take shape.

Their performances at Tupras Stadyumu have been particularly convincing. Besiktas have won all five competitive home fixtures this season, conceding only twice and recording four clean sheets. Their two league games there have produced victories over Eyupspor and Corum.

History also points strongly towards the hosts. Besiktas are unbeaten in their four previous Super Lig encounters with Erzurumspor, winning three, although their opponents did famously beat them home and away in the Turkish Cup during the 2019-20 campaign.

Italiano will need to make at least one adjustment following the Fenerbahce win. Junior Olaitan is expected to miss out after suffering an injury in the derby, which could open the door for Wilfred Ndidi.

Further forward, Vlahovic should again spearhead an attack containing plenty of creativity, with Orkun Kokcu and Vaclav Cerny among those capable of causing problems against what is likely to be a deep Erzurumspor defence.

Erzurumspor

The opening fortnight of Erzurumspor’s return to the Super Lig offered little encouragement. Defeats against Amed and Galatasaray produced seven goals conceded and none scored, immediately highlighting the challenge awaiting Serkan Ozbalta’s team at this level.

Their response has been much better. A 1-1 draw away to Genclerbirligi delivered their first point before last weekend’s 1-0 success against Konyaspor gave Erzurumspor their maiden victory of the campaign.

The most significant development has been Ozbalta’s move towards a more conservative structure. Erzurumspor lined up with five defenders against Konyaspor, took an early lead through Eren Tozlu and then successfully protected it.

A similar strategy seems almost inevitable in Istanbul. Trying to match Besiktas in an open contest would carry enormous risk given the hosts’ recent scoring form, so Erzurumspor are likely to concede territory and concentrate numbers around their own penalty area.

Tozlu gives them a potential outlet when possession is recovered. The veteran striker has scored in successive matches and should once again operate alone at the head of the formation, with Erzurumspor looking to counter whenever opportunities arise.

Elisha Owusu’s fitness is one issue for Ozbalta to resolve. If he cannot feature, Sefa Akgun is an obvious candidate to step into midfield after replacing him against Konyaspor.

Erzurumspor’s four points from their last two matches should therefore not be dismissed, particularly as their defensive improvement has been substantial. This trip, though, represents a considerable step up from beating Konyaspor at home.

Verdict

Erzurumspor’s priority will surely be to keep the contest tight for as long as possible. Their five-man defensive system worked last weekend, and another compact performance could prevent Besiktas from immediately turning this into a one-sided affair.

The problem is sustaining that resistance for 90 minutes. Besiktas have won every home match this season, their attack is gathering momentum and Vlahovic has started the campaign in excellent scoring form.

We expect Erzurumspor to make the hosts work for their breakthrough, but Italiano’s side should eventually take control and record a fourth league victory of the season.

Tip

Our tip: Besiktas to win and over 1.5 total goals.