Finland can strengthen their position at the top of UEFA Nations League Group C1 when they face Belarus at the Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest on Tuesday evening.

Jacob Friis’s side have collected seven points from their opening three matches, leaving them one point above Albania and three clear of Belarus. Viktor Goncharenko’s team, however, arrive with renewed confidence after a 4-0 victory over San Marino and have already demonstrated their ability to frustrate Finland in last week’s goalless draw in Helsinki.

With Belarus continuing to play their nominal home fixtures on neutral territory, Finland will see this as an opportunity to take control of the promotion race before the final two rounds in November.

Belarus are becoming increasingly difficult to break down

Belarus have made genuine progress under Goncharenko, even if their opening three Nations League results have produced a mixed return.

The campaign began with a 2-0 defeat in Albania, but Belarus responded with a disciplined performance in Helsinki. Finland had scored seven against San Marino only three days earlier, yet Goncharenko’s side restricted the group favourites to a 0-0 draw and became the first team to prevent them from scoring in this campaign.

Saturday’s 4-0 victory over San Marino then provided evidence that Belarus can offer more than defensive resilience. Artem Shumanskiy and Maks Ebong found the net before Artem Kontsevoi struck twice after the interval, giving Belarus their biggest victory of the year and moving them onto four points. They now enter the second half of the group stage with a realistic opportunity to challenge Finland and Albania.

The wider defensive numbers are encouraging. Belarus have conceded only twice in three Nations League matches, and Goncharenko has developed a team that rarely allows games to get away from them. They have not conceded more than twice in any of their last 10 fixtures.

That organisation will again be central to their approach against Finland. Fedor Lapoukhov has been trusted in goal during the Nations League, with Zakhar Volkov, Kirill Gomanov and Kirill Pechenin among the regular defensive selections.

Kontsevoi’s performance against San Marino also gives Goncharenko another reason for optimism further forward. The 27-year-old provides pace and directness from the right and should retain his place after his two-goal contribution at the weekend.

Belarus have no significant new injury or suspension concerns, meaning Goncharenko can retain the core of the team that has collected four points from the last two matches.

The major disadvantage is the absence of genuine home advantage. Playing in Budapest removes an element that would normally make a fixture of this importance more difficult for Finland, although Belarus have become accustomed to those circumstances.

Walta has emerged as Finland’s unlikely goal threat

Finland’s seven-point return represents an excellent start to the campaign, but their route to the top of Group C1 has not been entirely straightforward.

A 7-0 victory over San Marino provided the perfect opening, with Joel Pohjanpalo scoring a hat-trick and Leo Walta also claiming three goals. Belarus then halted their momentum with the goalless draw in Helsinki.

Saturday’s meeting with Albania was therefore an important examination of Finland’s promotion credentials. They could hardly have made a worse start, falling behind after four minutes, but Friis’s team responded well. Walta equalised before half time and scored again in the 71st minute to complete a 2-1 comeback victory.

His emergence has been one of the major stories of Finland’s campaign. Five goals in three Nations League appearances have made Walta their leading scorer in the competition and added another dimension to a team that has traditionally relied heavily on its established centre-forwards for goals.

Pohjanpalo remains crucial. His physical presence gives Finland a clear focal point and provides a direct alternative when opponents make it difficult to progress through midfield. Against a compact Belarus defence, his ability to occupy centre-backs and attack crosses could become particularly important.

Friis can also welcome Glen Kamara back into the international setup after a year away, although Kaan Kairinen is suspended after collecting two yellow cards. That will require an adjustment in midfield, where Finland will need to be patient against a Belarus side likely to protect central areas aggressively.

There have also been broader changes to the Finnish squad. Oliver Antman and Naatan Skyttä were not selected for this window, while Nikolai Alho and Jesse Joronen have ended their international careers. Despite that turnover, Finland have made an encouraging start to the new Nations League cycle.

Tuesday’s challenge is to find a solution that they could not discover in Helsinki. Belarus have already shown they can frustrate Finland for 90 minutes, and there is little reason to expect Goncharenko to abandon that approach.

Verdict

The goalless draw between these teams last week is a strong indication that Finland should not expect an easy evening in Budapest.

Belarus are well organised, have conceded only twice in the group and should arrive with increased confidence after scoring four against San Marino. They are capable of keeping this contest tight for long periods.

Finland nevertheless possess more attacking options and have already shown an ability to respond when matches become difficult. Walta’s remarkable start to the campaign has reduced the scoring burden on Pohjanpalo, while Saturday’s comeback against Albania demonstrated the patience that may again be required.

Neutral territory also limits any meaningful home advantage for Belarus. The margins should be much narrower than Finland’s opening victory over San Marino or Belarus’s weekend success, but the group leaders have enough quality to eventually find a way through.

Tip: Finland to win