Italy left Turkey with a convincing 4–1 victory only one week ago. The teams now meet again in Bologna, where Turkey must find a response after losing all three of their Nations League matches.

Italy earned a valuable point in Paris

Italy followed their victory in Turkey with a 1–1 draw against France at the Stade de France.

Michael Olise gave France the lead early in the second half, but Alessandro Bastoni equalised after taking advantage of a mistake in the French defence. Italy then defended well and held on for an important point.

Roberto Mancini’s team now have four points from their first three matches. They remain two points behind Belgium in the fight for second place, making a victory against Turkey important before the final two group matches.

The performance in Paris showed another side of this Italian team. They scored four goals and attacked with confidence in Turkey, but were also able to remain organised against stronger opposition in France.

Italy should have much more of the ball in Bologna and will be expected to create chances throughout the match.

Turkey remain without a point

Turkey have endured a difficult start to the Nations League. They opened with a narrow 1–0 defeat against France before losing 4–1 at home to Italy.

Their situation became even worse on Friday when Belgium won 3–0 in Liège. Turkey have now conceded eight goals across three matches and have scored only once.

The first meeting with Italy showed their defensive problems. They struggled to deal with Italy’s movement and left too much space whenever possession was lost.

Turkey were still in the match at half-time, but Italy took control after the break and scored three more goals. Mancini’s side created chances from several different positions and never allowed the hosts to build any momentum.

Another defeat would leave Turkey in serious danger of relegation from League A.

Italy are missing several players

Italy will be without Bryan Cristante, Federico Dimarco, Giacomo Raspadori and Nicolò Zaniolo. Those absences reduce Mancini’s options, particularly when making changes during the second half.

There is still enough quality available to control this match. Sandro Tonali and Davide Frattesi can dominate the midfield, while young players such as Francesco Pio Esposito and Michael Kayode have already made an impact during the international window.

Pio Esposito was particularly impressive in the first meeting with Turkey. His physical presence gave the Turkish defence problems and helped Italy create space around the penalty area.

Playing at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara should also give Italy an advantage. Turkey have already struggled in difficult away matches and now face an Italian side that needs all three points.

The handicap offers better value

A regular Italy victory is the most likely outcome, but the price may be too low to offer much value.

Italy -1 Asian Handicap is a better option. Italy need to win by at least two goals for the bet to succeed, while a victory by exactly one goal returns the stake.

That protection is useful because Italy have several players unavailable and may not repeat the four-goal performance from the first meeting.

Turkey’s form is still difficult to ignore. They have lost all three group matches and were beaten by at least two goals in their last two. Their only goal in the competition came during the 4–1 defeat against Italy.

The visitors may defend deeper this time, but they will eventually need to take more risks if Italy score first. That should create further opportunities for the hosts.

Verdict

Italy have taken four points from difficult matches against Turkey and France, while Turkey remain without a point after three rounds.

The first meeting finished 4–1 and clearly showed the difference between the teams. Italy should again control possession and create the majority of the chances.

Turkey may keep the match closer in Bologna, but the hosts should still have enough quality to win. A 2–0 or 3–0 victory looks realistic.

Tip

Italy -1 Asian Handicap