Wales return to the Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday evening with renewed belief after finally getting their UEFA Nations League campaign up and running against Norway.

Craig Bellamy’s side came from behind to win 2-1 on Thursday, securing their first victory in League A and moving level on three points with Denmark and Norway in a tightly contested Group A4. Denmark arrive in Cardiff looking for a response of their own after a 4-2 home defeat to Portugal.

With Portugal beginning to establish themselves at the top of the section, Sunday’s meeting could have a significant bearing on the battle below them.

Wales finally have a result to reward their performances

The opening two matches of this Nations League campaign had produced little tangible reward for Wales. A narrow 1-0 defeat away to Portugal was followed by a 2-0 loss in Denmark, leaving Bellamy’s team without a point or a goal after two games.

Thursday’s victory over Norway therefore mattered for more than simply the league table. Wales fell behind but responded impressively, showing the intensity and attacking ambition that Bellamy has been trying to establish throughout his tenure. Turning the match around to win 2-1 gave them their first victory for almost a year and, more significantly, their first success since returning to the top tier of the Nations League.

There is now a realistic opportunity to transform the complexion of the group within the space of four days. Victory on Sunday would move Wales onto six points and above Denmark, something that appeared considerably less likely after the opening two defeats.

Bellamy is still operating without several important players. Joe Rodon and Dylan Lawlor were ruled out before this international window, while the squad has subsequently been affected by further absences. That has forced Wales to rely on some of the younger members of the group and has reduced the coach’s room for manoeuvre across four international matches in a short period.

The performance against Norway nevertheless gives Bellamy little reason to make extensive changes. Daniel James remains one of Wales’s most important outlets when they can attack space, while Lewis Koumas offers mobility through the middle and gives the front line a different profile.

Playing in Cardiff should also help. Wales have traditionally drawn considerable energy from their home support, and Thursday’s comeback was another reminder of how difficult they can be to contain when the crowd becomes involved.

The major question is whether they can reproduce that intensity only three days later. This is the fourth international in 11 days for both teams, and physical freshness is likely to become increasingly important as the game progresses.

Denmark need a response after Portugal exposed defensive problems

Denmark’s campaign has followed a remarkably similar pattern to that of Wales. Brian Riemer’s side opened with a dramatic 3-2 defeat away to Norway before responding with a controlled 2-0 victory over Wales in Copenhagen. Thursday’s 4-2 home defeat against Portugal then returned them to three points from three matches.

Six goals conceded across defeats to Norway and Portugal is an uncomfortable statistic for a team usually associated with defensive organisation. Denmark possess considerable quality throughout their squad, but they have shown a vulnerability when matches become stretched. That should encourage Wales, although their previous meeting provides an obvious warning.

Denmark were clearly the stronger side when these countries met only a week ago. They controlled long periods of the game and prevented Wales from establishing the attacking rhythm that Bellamy wants, eventually securing a 2-0 victory that extended their excellent recent record in this fixture.

The Danes have now won four consecutive meetings with Wales, with the Dragons’ last victory coming in a friendly in 2008. Denmark have therefore developed something of a psychological advantage in this matchup, although the quick turnaround and change of venue make Sunday’s contest a different proposition.

Rasmus Højlund represents the most obvious danger. The striker has enjoyed a productive international window and gives Denmark both a penalty-area presence and the ability to threaten behind the Welsh defensive line. Morten Hjulmand should again have an important role in midfield, particularly if Denmark attempt to control possession and prevent Wales from turning the contest into a transition game.

Patrick Dorgu has withdrawn through injury, but Denmark otherwise came through the Portugal match without another significant injury or suspension problem. Riemer therefore has greater depth available than Bellamy, something that could prove important late in the match.

Denmark should still be regarded as the stronger team on paper, but their two defeats in three Nations League games have demonstrated that they are far from untouchable. Wales will also approach this meeting with considerably greater confidence than they had before the reverse fixture.

Verdict

The 2-0 result in Copenhagen showed the gap that can exist between these teams when Denmark are allowed to dictate the match, but Wales should present a much greater challenge at the Cardiff City Stadium.

Bellamy’s team have finally gained some reward for their performances, and coming from behind to beat a Norway side containing Erling Haaland should provide an important lift. Denmark, meanwhile, have conceded seven goals across their two defeats and were given a demanding evening by Portugal on Thursday.

The short turnaround could also reduce the intensity as the match develops, particularly after both teams expended considerable energy in their respective midweek fixtures.

Denmark have enough quality to cause Wales serious problems, but the Dragons’ improved confidence and home advantage make another Danish victory far from certain.

Tip: Draw