Nemiga and Alliance meet in the upper-bracket semi-final of Stake Ranked Episode 4 after both teams produced impressive victories on the opening day in Barcelona.

Nemiga defeated FaZe 2–0, while Alliance came through a close three-map series against Astralis. The winner will move directly into the upper-bracket final and take another step towards the $25,000 first prize.

Nemiga continue their strong run

Nemiga arrived at the tournament in good form and extended their winning streak with an excellent performance against FaZe.

They needed overtime to win Mirage 16–12 before completing the upset with a 13–11 victory on Ancient. FaZe had chances on both maps, but Nemiga handled the important rounds better and remained calm whenever the score became close.

Robo was the standout player with 43 kills across the series, but this was not simply an individual performance. Nemiga looked organised on both sides and repeatedly punished FaZe for taking unnecessary risks.

The result was their fourth consecutive victory and continued an encouraging period for the team. Nemiga have enough firepower to compete with Alliance, but their discipline may be even more important in this match.

Alliance showed character against Astralis

Alliance also started the tournament with an upset, recovering from a difficult opening map to defeat Astralis 2–1.

That victory showed why Alliance cannot be underestimated. They have experienced an inconsistent few weeks, including defeats against 3DMAX, SINNERS and MIBR, but they have also recorded convincing victories over TYLOO and magic.

Alliance are capable of causing problems when their individual players find confidence early. They will not be afraid of Nemiga after beating a higher-ranked opponent in their opening match.

However, the Astralis series also required plenty of energy. Alliance were pushed across all three maps, while Nemiga completed their victory in two. That could become important if this match develops into another long and physical series.

Nemiga have looked more consistent

Both teams produced strong opening results, but Nemiga have been the more reliable side in recent weeks.

Alliance have struggled to build momentum and have lost three of their last five matches. Their victory against Astralis was impressive, but one result does not completely remove the concerns created by their recent performances.

Nemiga have now won four matches in a row and enter this series with plenty of confidence. Their victory against FaZe was particularly convincing because they managed to close both maps despite facing pressure late in the game.

The map veto should also give Nemiga opportunities. Their current pool offers enough flexibility to avoid Alliance’s strongest option while selecting a map on which they can control the tempo. Alliance are capable of taking one map, but Nemiga should be more comfortable across the full series.

The safer choice is Nemiga to win

Nemiga are favourites at around 1.50, which is not a huge price, but it still looks like the most sensible option.

Backing Nemiga to win 2–0 offers better odds, although Alliance have already shown that they can compete against strong opposition on LAN. After taking down Astralis in a best-of-three, trusting Alliance to win at least one map is reasonable.

Over 2.5 maps is another possibility, but that market depends heavily on Alliance maintaining the level they showed in their opening match. Nemiga were more convincing on the first day and should have the advantage if the series reaches a deciding map.

The moneyline allows Nemiga to drop one map while still giving us a winning bet. Their recent form, cleaner opening performance and four-match winning streak make them the stronger choice.

Verdict

Alliance deserve respect after beating Astralis, and this should be a closer match than the odds may suggest. They have enough quality to push Nemiga and could take the series to all three maps.

Nemiga have still shown greater consistency and produced the more controlled performance in their opening match. They should have enough quality to continue their winning run and reach the upper-bracket final.

Tip

Nemiga to win